I've got a shortstack after recently losing a huge pot where I had ~75-80% chance of winning when the $ went in.

My image is probably pretty aggro post flop and pretty tight pre flop and am pretty certain no one thinks I'm steaming (which I'm not). Villain is really loose pre flop and aggro post flop, but can fold post flop: a good LAG and good hand reader. He's been VERY active but hasn't shown down many hands. I've seen him bluff at least once, he's capable of 3-betting light, and he once flatted in MP against a UTG raise with J5o.

MP (super super loose preflop as well) open limps, CO (unknown woman) limps, villain makes it $50 from the SB. I have $235 in the BB with 66. Plus EV ship?

Eh, 235 to win 60? Not my cup of tea, but I suppose it could be defensible.

Is it good SS strategy? No.

He's prolly not folding much of his range for an extra $180 into $290 getting ~1.6:1.

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.084% 57.87% 00.21% 642151296 2333154.00 { 99+, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 41.916% 41.71% 00.21% 462755388 2333154.00 { 66 }

I feel like it's -EV.

Not really fan of shipping here. Pot is still pretty small, so you're probably flipping at best.

Is this his opening range, or his calling of my shove range?

FWIW, if this is his opening range and he never folds, and assuming I'm not called by either limper, shoving is EV = -$33.81.

$50 seems like a very large open. I'd normally read this as a strong middling PP, or perhaps a premium hand from an OMC type. All of those hands are likely calling you and have you crushed. Have you seen this Villain open for this sizing before? Short stacking isn't an excuse just to jam decent hands and assume everything is ok since you may have FE, because more often then not your getting called. I know that sounds obvious and borderline insulting, but having well established patterns villain's tendencies and corresponding ranges is vital when playing SS. 60/40s don't work after rake.

Yes, once and I didn't see a showdown. He did that against one limper and I know he didn't have AA/KK...

And for this 66 hand, I actually ranged him at something like top 20-35% of hands, not an incredibly tight "strong middling PP, or perhaps a premium hand".

Gotcha. Still don't like it. Even if you had a "I've been folding for two hours straight" image, no bueno.

The raise out of position with 3 players to go is scary enough to not shove IMO. If MP is 'super super loose' would you think he is still a threat to call SB raise or your shove? His established image likely expects a call and he could be holding strong here. I think you might find a better spot in position on this player.

I hate when that heppens.

At best, I think it's a flip, and I don't like it at all here, especially with $50 coming out of the SB. You still have 47BB, and that's enough to maneuver if you choose not to top up. I'd chuck the red sixes and sit this one out, unless it was your intention to set up a tilty image before reloading, or topping up should this shove either take it down pre, or you flop good.

I don't like it....seems like a high variance spot where you can anticipate on getting called and flipping a coin. Just reload to the max and go back to playing your normal, solid strategy.

As a side note, regardless of how you lose a substantial sized pot (whether you were a large favorite or not), I believe your image will always weaken and players will tend to call you down at a higher frequency.

Not a good shove spot. Fold.

Not shoving. 40bb is plenty to work with, no need to spew it off with 66.

You might as well calculate it vs his raising range bc I don't think you have much FE

you're never getting worse hands to call. The best we could hope for is a coin flip. I would fold this hand

I don't like giving guys who are bad coin flips. I'm topping off or leaving.

+1

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Looks like literally every response is to fold.

Results: I shove, villain calls instantly, after the river, there's two 10s on board but nothing higher and my hand is good.

I actually ranged him, like I said, at top 20-30% of hands. Let's try an EV calc assuming top 15% of hands, a tighter range than I would think he has:

77+, A7s+, A10o+, K9s+, QJo+, any two suited broadway...that's 15% of all hands.

Then let's say he folds 10% of this range to a shove, the very worst such as A7s, QJo, and K9s.

EV ship = .10*65 + .9(.434*$250 - .566*$235) = $6.5 - $22.1= -$15.6.

Yeah looks like shoving is bad against a top 15% range w/ little FE.

TBH, I'm still not convinced this was a bad shove.

I disagree with some statements so far in this thread:

1. I don't think his opening range is as tight as you guys say. Sure $50 is a large opening bet, but his regular open (against no limpers) is about $25-30. Again, I think top 20-30% of hands is a more accurate opening range.

2. I don't think I have zero fold equity. He'd be getting 1.6-1 pot odds and would need 38% equity to call. Does he really call with 77 or A10?

If we range him at top 25% of opening hands AND assume he never folds:

EV ship = .486*$245 - .514*$235 = $119.1 - $120.79 = -$1.72.

Once we add in any fold equity, that EV equitation only goes up, since almost anything in his range that he would fold would be a mistake.