Kind of similar to my recent:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...-66-a-1447553/

Almost all posters there said to fold. After doing the math, I've come to the conclusion that shoving was probably close to $0 EV, and in reality was either just a little higher or lower than $0.

Also, note, this hand is from a DIFFERENT session than the bottom set of 6s hand I just posted.

Reads: Young and loose. Raises very often pre flop, calls raises pretty loose. The game has recently went from 6 handed back to 9 handed. Haven't seen to much of him post flop for a strong read on his post flop style.

Two very very loose players limp, folds to villain in the CO who makes it $25. Folds to me in the BB with $155 in my stack, $42 in the pot. +EV shove?

Seems likely.

We can def get better to fold. Probably ATo-AJo, ATs, 22 - 66.

We are pretty crushed when he calls though. Assume hes opening 20% of hands and calls with 77+ and AJs+, AQo+, and maybe KQs. How much of his range is he folding? Whats our equity when called?
EV calc should give us our answer.

Also, when possible, try not to be sitting short if you have an edge on the game.

Just fold, and top up or quit for the day.

Never like playing 2/5 for 30BB....all you're doing at this point is looking for a slight edge and going with it. Top off or go home....

As played, sure why not...

What percentage of hands is CO raising in this situation? If he is borderline to maniac LAG here and raising more then 30% of hands then it's clearly +EV. Against a range that wide, the more he calls, the more often you win and the higher your EV. In practice, your probably behind when called but you will get enough folds and suck out enough that it's +EV.

As his range falls below 30% then the calculation gets harder. Your EV could be positive until villains range is somewhere around raising 20% of the time, but it's going to depend on how smart villain is about calling and how often the limpers have a hand that can get involved. By a 15% raising range it has to be -EV unless CO is super MUBSY, obviously neither is the case here.

My guess is that it's +EV but thin.

I'd say somewhere in the 20-35% range.

Obviously its hard to know for a fact.
But the difference between 20% and 35% is massive. And its the exact thing that determines if this can be profitable or not.

If you're playing cash games, take advantage of the ability to top off your stack. Intentionally putting yourself in these marginal situations is bad for your overall EV.

I guess, as played, shove is ok. If you lose, maybe that'll loosen up your image. Buy-in full and take advantage of it after

What's your image? How long have you been short stacked?

My image is bad. Within the past 3 orbits, twice I've opened pre flop with decent hand and folded to a 3-bet. I've seen some flops and had to fold after completely missing. I've very very slowly went from full stacked to shortstacked. I'm tired, plan on going home soon anyway, so that's why I didn't rebuy.

Having a bad image probably helps your EV here a bit, as it means you will get called by more hands that are worse then yours. You lose your small FE vs AJ/AT but will get called by more A8- and some middle suited connectors. Getting called by T9s type hands that you dominate helps your EV. It will drive up your variance a lot also.

The most important thing though, when you reach that double up or leave mentally, it's time to leave. There are just a lot of things that are working against you by that point, and the biggest is usually your own mind. You will start coming up with thinner and thinner justifications for shoving when your really just looking for a chance to leave rather then a way to make your money back. I did that a couple of time in my first year before I learned to recognize it.

are you typically this short in the game?

When you made this decision, you should've racked up right then. Why sit short? Whether or not this move is +EV longterm is bebatable, I guess, but it is high variance, to be sure. That old yarn "a penny saved is a penny earned" is pretty sage in spots like this. Don't get me wrong, I LOVE when people sit a game and will not get up until their whole stack is gone, like it's a tourney or something, but 'keepin it real', this is just foolish play.

Results: I ship and villain calls fairly quickly with QJo and hits to win.