Playing at a table of mostly regulars. Motor city in Detroit.

Hero: white mid 20s, probably viewed as competent TAG by villain given limited history with him
Villain: white early 20s, seems somewhat inexperienced, seen him try to make plays in poor spots, puts too much emphasis on tells given what I've picked up from table talk
Rest of the table: mostly tight passive

Hand:

preflop:
UTG (villain) limps
Folds to hero in cutoff, raises to $20 with 24
-- Hoping to play a pot in position against villain and maybe SB or BB where a cbet will take the pot down often given read of table
BB calls
villain calls

flop ($62):
2JK

BB checks
villain checks
hero bets $35
BB folds
villain raises to $120 (covers hero)
hero has $320 left
hero shoves

This struck me as a great bluff shove opportunity. Our 2 blocks bottom set, and JJ/KK are likely to raise UTG preflop. Kings sometimes fold given the way we've played the hand (it looks like we have KJ or a set here right?) and if he has a draw he either folds or we get it in with pretty good equity, and draws seem like the most likely hands in his range given what I know about his playstyle. And we even have backdoor outs to add a few percentage points.

KJ and Jx are the likely hands that I'm scared of in his range.

Good bluff spot or spew?

Clear spew!

Preflop is close but after you get checkraised its a fold. His checkraise Shows that much strenght and even with a strong draw he will call your allin.

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Just doesn't seem like a spot where he's folding any of his c/r range for only $200 more into a pot of 500.

Absolute BEST case scenario you're up against Asxs, in other words 2 overs and a flush draw.

He never folds any combo draws, and never nut flush draws since he's getting more than 2:1 on a call.

So in other words, no, it does not seem like a good bluff spot.

not sure I got the stacks right on this one... I think the shove was for more like $420 actually. Keep in mind though we have 40-50%ish equity against his draws so it's fine if he calls with those. The goal is to get 1 pair hands and weak draw + overcards out (this guy is capable of having a hand like KT, air, or AQ etc)

If you think even given that it's still a bad spot to bluff, do you think there is a stack size that makes this bluff profitable?

If you think he c/r Kx and folds to your shove, its not a horrible bluff. I dont know if its profitable though.

Unless you've been c-betting and raising pre a lot, I don't think he c/r with Kx though. Youre basically up against KJ, pair + draw, or naked draw.

IMO you're not folding out KJ and you're not doing well against that range.

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Spew.

Best case for us Villain has a naked flush draw our equity is only 50% because Villain has to have two over-cards to our pair of deuces. The rest of his range has us beat and any flush draw with a J has us crushed. Hero is virtually drawing dead to two-pair.

After Villains check-raise Hero is over-estimating FE, need Villains stack size.

Total Spew, horrible spot.

I like it more if you're deeper obviously, but this c/r is so rarely a bare king. It's mostly some sort of combo draw, or pair+draw, nut flush or set type hand. Maybe since he's goofy it can be 2 pair, but almost never a hand like k10.

Agree with above. Spew all the way.

Result: he had a naked king and ended up calling. The things that happen playing against goofy players...

was more interested in what you guys thought about the general spot though. Agree that it probably isn't a great spot to bluff, at best slightly profitable, at worst a spew, so its a fold.

LOL @ this hand...you just don't need to do this playing 100BB deep. This is utter spew. Once he c/r you he just isn't folding.

2/5 and below is simply to easy to beat to play hands this way.

I dont like shoving here ... to me it looks bluffy. If you were that deep and could just min raise him back somehow ... Make it look more like you want a call than a 'go away' bet.

To me its the board .. results based here of course .. he is putting you on JsXs probably, maybe OES/flush draws. Yes, he should be folding here a lot by putting you on a better K so, in principal, your 'move' has merrit.

When bluffing you have to tell a story that makes sense .. what is worth shoving here? Set, maybe ... 2 pr, sure. He obv didnt respect your raise too much and/or you gave off some 'tell' that he was relying on. Wouldy you be shoving with a better K here? He obv thinks not.

Something was amiss when compared to your regular game here and he decided to go to the weak side of your polarizing bet range.

I heard the food is decent there (and free in the poker room), need to get down there from GR sometime and get my free hotel room for playing 1 hour of slots then hit the room. GL

I probably wouldn't even cbet there, spew spew spee

Not a good spot. Solid plan pre but uncooperative flop without adjustment. You did follow trough though. Imho No c-bet. C/f flop and unimproved turn (which could ve been seen for free btw due to our LP).

if you set up a hand to bluff, ie raising 2d4d, and flop a pair vs 2 opponents, you lose the value of the pair by betting in a spot where you are likely never getting called by worse, other than a draw that has at least 2 overs + SD or FD, and that flop is pretty wet with 2 sooted broadway cards likely to have hit one of those in the hand. I would like to see a check back here since we made a pair and can pick up equity with a diamond, 2, or 4 on the turn. Change the plan when you have a weak made(ish) hand IP with a chance to improve, call a turn bet, and possibly bd a flush or make 2 pair.

GRUNCH (means I didn't read any replies)

This hand is reminds me of what would happen if you gave a teenage boy a bottle of Jerkins lotion and a subscription to MILFHUNTER

Spew

There is more spew here than a volcanic eruption.

Dear god in heaven, whenever there is a flush draw on board, villains are going to be more likely to put you on the flush draw and call down light.

Not to mention there are a bazillion Kx and Jx hands in V's range and if V is on a flush draw he isn't folding flop and the fact that if he is on a FD and has two overs he is actually ahead of you on the flop.

Then couple this to the fact that villains at this level don't like to fold and you haven't established a table image of just showing down monsters and nutted hands...

Seriously, raising with 42s is spew and then shoving here is spew.

I don't think its possible to have played this hand any worse

Your villain description tells me this:
white early 20s, seems somewhat inexperienced (he won't fold any piece of it. He won't understand your line regardless of the story you try and sell), seen him try to make plays in poor spots (capable of bluffing you or will have hands in his range that do not make sense to you but will often have good equity), puts too much emphasis on tells given what I've picked up from table talk (Will believe you or won't believe you regardless of what you try to represent. Protip: he won't)
Rest of the table: mostly tight passive


Let's look at each street of this hand and see why every one of them is spew:

Preflop:
He limps UTG, tells us he has a hand he wants to see a flop with but not good enough to raise. Lots of broadways, KXs AXs middling connectors and low pp type hands.
You're in the CO and raise to 20 with 12 already in the pot. Is this going to make him fold? Not likely.
The players behind you will call with anything they like for that amount too.
You're not raising for value, 24s flops really really poorly. People don't stack off against flush draws. RIO vs higher flush draws. No real "disguised" value of the hand as you're playing vs non-thinking opponents (not that this has any real value at all).

TLDR of preflop: No real FE, quite possible you'll play a hand 3/4/5 and your c-bet plan goes out the window. Garbage hand.

What you should have done: Snap folded.

FLOP c-bet
Board is KJ2ss.
You managed to get heads up and even flop a pair. You must understand that the value of this pair on this board is pretty terrible.
C-betting here is your 2nd big mistake of the hand. This board hits his range really well. All spades are loving it, broadway straight draws aren't folding. No pair is folding, and that includes the A2's he'll have. He probably doesn't fold underpairs to the board either, look at his description. He sees the flush draw out there and may not believe you and will possibly call a flop bet and maybe later turn it into a bluff. You're never hero calling down with bottom pair, so it's SD value after a c-bet is kinda nil. What's worst is that this player will make plays, he is capable of raising you with airball here and (should) force you to fold.

TLDR flop: Board smacks his range. Poor equity vs his range. V capable of blowing you off with worse holdings. No real SD value with bottom pair

3-bet shoving flop
Realistically it's a bit much to expect c/r folds from any player at this level. This guy; sounds like he'll hero you for sure and is NEVER folding a flush.
Your reasoning is that your hand looks like X and X and therefore he'll fold this part of his range. This villain is inexperienced and therefore has no real hand reading abilities.

At the bottom of his range if v flopped a K (or J) he decides to raise to protect vs flush draw or whatever. He is inexperienced and probably doesn't realise the ****tyness of TPNK. You shove over him and he calls because you "could have a FD" or "I hit top pair!"

If he has a flush draw he's never raising then folding. Come on.

While you do just okay vs a FD his raising range is way wider than that.

Spew at every moment in this hand. Fold preflop, check give up flop.

What you should take from this though is that #1 you should never ever bluff these players. Just value bet them to death and make sure you'll always have them outkicked. If you think about this hand and replace your hand with a value hand, you'll see that you can value shove as little as TPGK against these players in this spot.
And #2: pick better boards to c-bet on. It hits peoples ranges so hard. Vs thinking players you'll have to fire multiple barrels and is usually massively -EV even if you get folds some of the time.

In a nutshell, don't bluff. Especially preflop.