I thought this was a pretty interesting river spot to possibly go for a large bluff raise which I something I rarely/never incorporate in my game. I also am curious about also considering this spot if we ended up on the river with some similar hands as well.

Unfortunately this was last week so I don't remember the table dynamics perfectly, but I will do my best.

Hero (MP) $1500: Young 20s white kid in professional work clothes. Should have a very good image, gotten paid on preflop all ins with KK/AA and that is about it so far this session.

Villain (EP) $1500: MAWG wearing headphones. Comfortable playing poker but not a reg in my casino. Talkative/fun guy, claims to have some time off of work to play cards. Has made some fishy comments. Has been on the loose/passive side preflop. Not too aggressive post-flop besides a check/raise or two. Don't remember any significant showdowns unfortunately.

Table in general has been pretty loose.

UTG Straddles. Villain limps, Hero overlimps A4, we end up going 7 ways to the flop.

Pot $70
Flop: T83

Villain leads out $60, Hero calls, rest of the table folds.

obviously not folding a nut draw this deep with 5 other people behind me that can also call

Pot $190
Turn: J

Villain bets $110, Hero thinks for ~15 seconds and calls.

in hindsight I think this turn call is most likely -EV and fold is probably the better play with the price we are getting vs his range, as he should be very strong here: T8,TT,88,33 and possibly Qs9s, 9s7s (although I don't expect this villain to lead those draws in a multiway pot)

Pot $410
River 9

Villain bets $275 without much thought.

This river is somewhat of a complex spot when trying to range V. Some of my thoughts:

1. I really feel like villain is just clicking buttons with a set here, either not initially noticing that there is 4 to a straight on the board, or just betting because he has a "strong hand." (possibly going for thin value but not sure he is sophisticated enough). However, I would expect the majority of the player pool to check their sets on this river card, as not many people bet for thin value.

2. I really did not expect villain to lead flop with his combo-draws the way he had been playing. However, it is obviously possible and should be factored into his range.

3. Even if villain is capped to sets here, do we expect an average MAWG at 2/5 to be more likely to bet/fold his sets, or tank/tilt call off (I know this is read dependent but curious what people think about the general population).

4. I know it is also very hard for me to rep straights in this spot, I shouldn't have too many QsXs or 7sXs combos that limp pre in EP and call down on this runout (plus villain may think I am polarized to Qx or air and not even give me credit for value-raising a 7 here), but not sure if this matters vs an average 2/5 villain who is not thinking that deeply.

5. Or do they always just have it in this spot even as unlikely as it seems

So I realize this is not a standard spot (and not a play I would normally make at all), but wondering if anyone thinks this is a good spot to bluff-raise the river, and what sizing they would use. My initial reaction was $700, which needs to generate a fold just over 50% of the time

Also:
If we had A9, would you be more likely make this play, since we block Qs9s/9s7s and villain is almost certainly capped to sets.

& on the other end of the spectrum:

If we had A7, are you raising this river for value?

Here's my thoughts on your points:

1. Given reads and the fact that he bet very quickly, it's more probable than normal that he might have not noticed the 4 to a straight. I wouldn't factor this in much though and would mostly assume he noticed the straight.

2. I would factor combo draws in for sure. Even passive players normally would be willing to make a large flop bet here with a combo draw.

3. Average player will not call a river raise without a straight though probably a decent % of the player pool would be willing to call a raise with a set.

4. Why is it hard to rep straights? You should have alot of queen high straights in your range: Q8, Q9, QJ, Q7, KQ, Q6, Q10, Q9. Also if villain is any decent at hand reading at all, he should know if you have 7-x you'd always only call this river and not raise. Bluff raising 7-x on this river would be awful: we'd mostly not get called by worse or get better to fold.

5. No I don't think he always just "has it" in this spot if "it" means Q-X or 7-x. If he has Q-x or 7-x, that means we was bluffing/semibluffing flop (i.e. some of his range is bluffs on early streets). Also if he has Q-X or 7-x, there's a large chance his turn bet was a bluff. So if he was willing to bluff the earlier streets we shouldn't assume his river bet is never a bluff.

Okay now onto what I think you should do. You're right, this is a complex hand because (1) ranges are pretty wide pre in a limped pot (2) we should have a raise range on the turn and (3) we should also have a raise range on the river.

I think calling with this hand on the turn > raising > folding. We're getting 3-1 odds on a 4-1 draw and we can also bluff many river cards so calling shouldn't be -EV. On the turn, I'd raise 97, Q9, maybe J10, and bluffs that have either a single queen or single 9 in them (e.g. Q10 or 109) since 9-x or Q-X blocks the turned straights in his range.

On the river, if we had Q-X (where x isn't a king), I think I'd actually only call his bet. If we value raise, it has to win over half the time when called for it to be higher EV than flatting, and if he does call it's mostly going to be with Q-X (for the chop) or KQ (if we give him KQ and KQ though we said he's passive). So if we only raise river with KQ for value, that means we shouldn't bluff as much.

The issue with bluff raising A4 here is it actually has bad blocking effects: we block lots of missed flush draws he could have that he could bet/fold (again I'm assuming "passive postflop" doesn't mean so passive that he literally never bets draws). No hand really has good blocking effects here but some have bad blocking effects.

If he instead checked river, now we can have a MUCH wider bluffing range. We could then bet all Q-X and 7-X combos for value and bluff a ton of missed draws.

I don't think us having 9 vs 4 matters much unless his turn bet range was only sets, Q9, and 97 but I think his range should be a bit wider than this. I'd say that if we had no spades, that would be the best blocking effects unless he has no combo flush draws in his turn bet range.

Btw, my entire post was based on the assumption that his range is not capped at only sets. I don't think that's accurate at all.

But IF somehow you know he only has sets here, I'd shove river.

It will be basically impossible for him to call a river shove with a set here, unless he doesn't notice there's a 4-straight on board lol.

When I said "a decent % of the player pool would be willing to call a raise with a set" that's if the raise is a normal size one. Almost no one would call a river shove for ~1250 with just a set.

Also, if his range is sets + Qs9s + 9s7s, I'd also shove river. We'd need folds 65%+ to be +EV and he'd be folding ~82% of the time (9/11 combos).

I don't understand how we come to conclusion he is capped to sets.

Why not raise flop here? I think you have decent equity against his range with your A probably playing, plus you just need a tiny bit of FE to make it an EV+ play.

Again, not sure it matters because I don't expect villain to be a good hand reader, but with my overlimp pre in MP after only villain limps, call, call line the only Queens I can plausibly have are: QJ, QT. The rest I either raise pre, fold pre, or raise turn. He also doesn't have perfect information about my range and could give me credit for more queens though.

Also if I raise with 7x on the river it is for value, not as a bluff.

I agree with this, which is why I really do not expect him to have a straight on the river here since I do not think he leads pot into 7 people at a loose table with a naked straight draw.


If we have Qx on the river I am definitely raising small for value. Neither villain nor I should ever have KQ here based on the action. I am probably more likely to have KQ in my range than he is with how the flop/turn action occurred but I am also not overlimping that hand preflop.

I agree blocking the NFD isn't great, but it does also block villain from having AQ and A7 and makes it so that for him to have a straight he needed to be leading into 7 people at a loose table for pot with a non-nut draw (or exactly Qs9s, 9s7s).

If we have A9 we block both the combo draws and NFDs, which makes it much more likely villains flop and turn bets were made hands for value (which I already think his range is heavily weighted towards), and thus makes it much less likely for him to have a straight on the river.



What do you think his range looks like on the river?

Based on his line of: open limp UTG preflop, lead ~pot into 7 people on this flop at a loose table, and bet with his sizing again on the turn, how many Qx or 7x do you expect villain to have in his range here compared to sets/2p/anything else?

I would expect him to have at most Q9, 97 right? Which he might not even lead flop with at 100% frequency.

When villain leads $60 into a $70 pot 7 ways to the flop on a dripping wet board I expect to have close to 0% fold equity. Also, if we get 3! by villain we are in awful shape and most likely have to fold all of our equity or we are getting it in with ~33% equity 300bb deep, neither of which I want to do here.

I am also the first person to act after villain and want as many people calling behind me with dominated/worse draws (or really anything) while I am drawing to the nuts.

Loose preflop villain can have QT for top pair good kicker on the flop. He can bet this big into multiple players "for protection against draws" not really realising how strong this line looks and how it may limit the value he can get from worse pairs. He can then bet big again on Overcard turn "to protect against flush draw". At the same time he notes that there are 4 9s out there that make him a straight, he blocks Q9 with his Q and he has 3 Qs to make him 2pair to beat JT or J9.

River comes 9 and he just auto bets for value.

Pre is ok, if we think a raise is unlikely.

Flop is clearly a call - we hope to draw cheap and over-flush someone who won't fold his worse flush

Turn: I fold here - but would obviously continue if we are still multiway. Heads-up this seems like a non good turn, if he continues. Calling isn't too bad, I suppose .. But I am a variance nit.

River: I just fold it. The Qs/7s is very well in his range and I don't want to punt a stack vs a guy that doesn't seem to think about his hand much. He isn't bluffing and I don't think that we should make too many assumptions on a super connected board.

I don't think he has a set besides 33 (pf limp) and is way more likely so be on a flushdraw with the Queen of stades.




Gesendet von iPhone mit Tapatalk

He's not capped - Don't like it.

Fair enough, I did end up just folding and not going for the bluff.

TBH I was more worried about him bet/calling with a set than him having the straight with the way the hand played out, but other people seem to think his range is much wider in this spot than I do, which may very well be correct.