UTG is a weak passive woman. I have seen her limp/call TT utg. (Stack=500)
UTG+1 is a tight Asian man ~26 years old. He hasn’t played a single hand in the hour I’ve been here. (Stack=500)
MP is a loose fish black man ~40 years old. (Stack=500)
CO is a reg with a losing image. He has lost 4 or 5 big pots since I’ve been here. (Stack=700)
Hero is SB has a very snug/ TAG image. I have played 3 hands in the hour I’ve been here never going to show down. (Stack=600)


UTG limps. UTG+1 20. Mp fish calls. CO reg 135. Hero SB AKo folds.

Do we just ship it in here? We have 39% equity vs QQ+, AK. So we don’t need too many folds to make this a +EV shove. That being said there is pretty significant action up to this point and we can just walk away with no money invested. Is it too tight to fold this?
Ty


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I prefer 4 betting the losing reg.

Is CO just unlucky to have lost 4 or 5 big pots or is he actually a losing player?

The 3bet is quite large and even if we can put a few AK, 10s-JJ OOP into our 4bet fold range, we are essentially committing if we put in another bet. That said, we can flat but playing a 3bet pot OOP is never too fun. I don't hate a fold here, not loving it either.

Fold absent further reads

I don’t think CO is a losing player. He’s just been running bad this session from what I can tell.


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I likely shove almost every time but would be concerned about the original raiser. Given what you've said, I wouldn't hesitate to shove there against MP w AK against him with your stack size.

I'm probably wrong there, but I'd put it in there.

Let me guess, limper folds, original raiser pushes, 3b guy folds?

Im shipping this. They cant both have AA.

5+2+5+20+20+135= 187.
+187 if fold.
600+600+52=1252.
.39 * 1252 = 488.28.
600-488.28= 111.72.
-111.72 if called.
187/(187+111.72) = .62

So if we get called 62% of the time by QQ+, AK it’s break even. Any less and we’re +EV.


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AK-9 combos
AA-3 combos
KK-3 combos
QQ-6 combos.
So 24 combos of QQ+, AK
So we need 11 combos that CO raise folds here.


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you're not giving him TT/JJ or AQ?

If we jam, I imagine we will fold out TT, JJ, AQs and occasionally QQ and other AK. So when we do get called, we are very behind.

Another consideration I want to check with people is, if there is any merit in assigning x amount of A and K to UTG and UTG1 players, cos even if we assign them to fold out on average 1/4 of each A and K, that will greatly affect our equity against TT-QQ.

Keen to see the numbers on this

If co villain has TT or JJ I imagine he will raise/fold in this spot. That alone is 12 combos, and we only needed 11 to make the play break even. So I guess the shove is +EV based on this alone?


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Ah but there is some small % that UTG+1 has AA KK as well in which case we have 18% equity vs that. I’m not sure how to factor that into the equation.


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Well, UTG has a lot more folds in their range than main villain though...77-QQ (maybe more if they open all pairs), AJ+, 78s+

I include both QQ and AK because, as the UTG1, they are probably much much more likely to fold QQ and AK with more action to come.

the 6 combos of AA and KK probably never folds, QQ probably calls half the time? Maybe tilt call a bit more? Maybe the 2 AKs left calls? so that makes 11/21 combos...which I guess we jam...

If we give UTG+1 the range:
{AA-77, AKs-ATs, A5s, KQs-KTs, 87s-QJs, AKo, AQo}
That’s 101 combos given our blockers.
And 6 of those are {AA, KK}
So let’s say he calls 6/101 times or 6%.
So 6% of the time we have 18% equity vs UTG+1.


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So if we assign 11/21 call combos to CO and 6/101 call combos to UTG+1. 55.2% of the time one of them will call, so jam

BloodRose I think you’re a bit confused. CO has 24 combos of QQ+, AK that we expect a call from. And 12 combos of TT, JJ that we expect him to fold. That’s 24/36 call combos.


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Oh yeh, slight error on my part. I think there are only 21 combos of AK and QQ+ though, 6 QQ, 3 AA, 3 KK and 9 AK.

What I'm trying to convey is that once we put in a 4th bet, our own perceived range is so narrow, calling all QQ and AK isn't so profitable (I don't have the stove on right now so I can't check). But if we assign TT+ and AK for 3bet, then our 4bet range can only get tighter than that.

If I can make an analogy here, you came to this forum asking whether you should jam AK here. Meaning you aren't 100% sure jamming AK here is the right play. Just by general gap theory where you'd much rather be jamming one particular hand than calling off with that same particular hand, villain is probably not too keen to just readily call off AK, especially since he is calling a 4bet, which is even tighter than his own 3bet range.

In that sense, we just can't assign him to stack off with all his AK, probably only the 2 AKs left available. Likewise QQ is arguably worse. You don't block AA and KK, and if you are up against AK, you're a flip. And does SB jam JJ here? So we also can't just assign villain to readily call off with QQ so easily either. It's good that we can check retrospectively using pokerstove if QQ is a call, but at the end of the day it is going to be close and on the felt it probably isn't that obvious and sometimes QQ just goes into the muck as well.

21/33 is probably the absolute max CO can call, but realistically I don't think it is that much.

An easy way to add UTG+1 into the equation is to think of him as a Tax we will have to pay any time he shows up with AA or KK.
6% if time we have 18% vs UTG+1.
In which case:
500+500+5+5+20+135= 1165
.18*1165=209.
500-209=291.
-291 if called. Happens 6%.
So -12.5 EV.

We can say that out play vs CO must make $12.50 to break even rather than $0 to break even.


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When we factor in the -$12.50 tax, we need .58% calls from CO to break even. Which translates to 17 combos that we need CO to raise/fold.
If we give {JJ, TT, AQs} that’s 15 combos. If that’s the range then this is a fold. It’s very close tho


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I mean really the only hand we hate to see anyone show up with is AA as even vs KK we are only a 70/30 dog so not in terrible shape. And also the only one I am really worried about is UTG tight asian guy who hasn't played a hand...CO raise size is AIDS with AA/KK here. Smells way more like 77-JJ trying to take it down now.

I am OK with a low variance fold, but I think the better play is to ship over the top with all the dead $$ in there. Most often, you just take it down and all of those times will more than compensate for the few times where someone shows up with AA/KK and we don't suck out.

If he is as tight as you say, QQ NEVER calls and KK may fold some % of the time so that makes the shove +EV in my book.

losing image doesn't tell us much

easy fold pre

Standard fold. Ship your AKs if you wish

I feel like this is a pro vs rec question. And I'm sure there are posters from both groups here. If all Vs are regs and Hero has a good feel for all the assumptions that were made in this thread "if he's really that tight then" etc... AND you log 100+ hours per month then this thread is for you and maybe you can find a shove. If you're a rec player and your reads are really surface deep playing these almost even EV spots for stacks just seems silly. Sure if all your reads are correct and you run it 1,000 times maybe your +EV a little. But if you don't live in the casino, this is the type of variance I like to avoid with a strong drawing hand and less than strong reads on all Vs involved.