First, make sure you read the thread title so we don't re-hash information.

Hero's image is solid (lol) pro, winning image.
V's image is the same.

2 limps, hero limps J6ss co. sb complete, V is BB.

Flop KsQs4

Checks to hero who bets 25, V calls.

Turn 3d

Checks to hero who bets 65, V calls.

River 9s

Checks to hero who bets 15. V calls.

This hand is obv lols all around. How much value can we extract on the river? 15? 25? 50? 80?

His range seems like a majority of Kx and Qx. And i'm barreling down on a board where everything gets there. What's the maximum I can get a call with?

Well, at least you acknowledge it. This overlimp is pure garbage.

AP, go for the gold. $15 is just ridiculous, unless you were hoping to induce. Even if a haf-pot bet rarely gets called it only has to be called 1/6 times to have a higher EV than $15.

Ha, you know this is a pretty goofy hand.

Just to clarify - you're betting 15 into river pot of 200+?

I'll start things off with a high-level answer to your question: "More."

Well, if I made it to this spot I'm gonna be firing the river for at least 100. Otherwise I don't think I'll be able to sleep at night.

Why do you think V is not leading his Kx and some of his Qx?

His hand looks more like AXss, JT to me.

IMO, normally your only getting big value from JT, which is a small part of his range.

As played, pot otr and expect to be appropriately punished be AXss some of the time.

OK more serious now.

No, sorry Lapi, I don't think this looks like JT. That is maybe a 5%-10% chance.

You need to think about how pre-flop ranges interact with post-flop holdings. Again, he has ATC pre-flop. JT is an incredibly small % of ATC. By the flop and turn, JT - which is just 12 possible combos with our blocker! - continues to be a very small % of a villain range that is very Kx-heavy. Same with AXss. That's like 7 combos or something.

You gotta think about combos and ranges rather than about simple intuitive possibilities.

Villain has Kx probably ~80% of the time. He can obviously have 100+ combos of random Kx type hands since, again, he has every single possible Kx in his range pre-flop and post-flop, except perhaps for KQ and AK, which we could expect to do some combination of raise pre or raise flop, etc. I expect most but not all Qx folds the turn.

So maybe around like 80% Kx, 15% draws, 5% Qx. Plus or minus a bit, but you understand my idea.

So let's target hands with a relative value of top pair on this river.

I'm thinking around 40 is just perfect to target top pair hands like K7.

And 15 is obviously too small.

Well played sir. Math wins. I think $15 gets called 100%, however I think 1/2 pot gets called less than 1/6 unless my range for him is just completely off... Though I think your line of thinking is better than what mine was at the time which was 'he's never calling anything so i'm just gonna bet enough to pay for dinner'.

So, I guess my question here turns to, what hands do YOU (meaning everyone who reads this) get to the river with here and what is the maximum YOU call with that range? If I can get a good general idea of what everyone thinks, then writing the equation to determine where the max is will be easy.

I can't see V getting to the river with xxss or JT because of my turn bet sizing.

Or maybe 50.

Turn makes the draws very unlikely, agreed. V is check/calling on a wet board in a limped pot when he didn't VPIP pre, which is not something I expect to see basically ever from a "solid winning pro," much less when he's OOP against another.

His range is probably something like 4sXs,K4,Q4,KT,KJ, and a few weirdly played worse stubborn Ks, KQ, and draws. He should have little FD in your range, given the turn bet, so pretty much all of the TPGK/2P hands should call a decent river bet. Also, there is value in him folding (unless we are trying to ruin our image) as it keeps you from showing down this cheese.

Will,

You are not considering that V will lead his Kx some times. This means that we have to discount that holding somewhat.

I'd say there are more Qx combos still available vs. Kx. But these Qx probably dont call otr much regardless of size.

Also, he probably opens pre his KT+, and some QT+.

Discounted combos, ftw.

Lol...

So V is a solid winning pro who limps J-sh*t-suited then barrels into flopped over cards in a limped pot?

Mmmmmm....Kaaaaayyyyy....

no, that's hero's play. I don't hate limping with the J6s vs fish but betting 1/10 pot, come on son you're a pro it takes a free equity calc & a good old calculator to do the math

I know how to do the math, I feel I have a good handle on ranges, however I just don't know what the call% is for bet sizes.

I'd guess

15 gets called 100%.

100 get called 10%.

Barring crazy dynamics, I doubt > 100 will ever get called significantly unless he has exactly 4xss or 3xss, however he has a million Kx combos and a bunch of Qx combos.

This is more of a tendency question rather than a combo question. If I play this spot vs. 100 opponents with the same description and they always have K8o, 100 out of 100 will call $15. 10 out of 100 will call $100. What about bets between 15-100?

If he's calling an overbet (given rake) OTF and a PSB OTT with TPWK, what makes you think he's folding it 90% of the time with the same holding OTR for a half-pot bet? That makes no sense to me whatsoever.

Flop bet is mega standard.

Just because someone calls a bet on the turn doesn't mean they are calling 1/2 pot bets on all rivers. Two rivers are the nut low for a pair. 9s and As. Now, not only is it possible that he has been calling with the worst hand, all of the most likely draws get there. He essentially needs me to be barreling down on a KQ high wet board in a limped pot with air or near air in order to call with 1 pair here and be good. My image is not one that will do that.

You just bet pot+, pot, and got called twice, so against a thinking player, you absolutely must polarize yourself on this particular card so that he wants to both bluff catch wider (if that's what he's been doing) as well as ck-c strong hands that certainly at least CAN exist here (He doesn't HAVE TO ck-r his cap/44) It also goes a long way for range protection against a guy who you clearly play with pretty often.

These half pot and suck bets lines are just never bluffs (nor should they be) and if really deep against a REALLY good player, they so frequently just ck-f with a few ck-r mixed in on certain rivers.

Bet big, protect your range, you'll get looked up more often that you'd expect..

So are you suggesting something like 3/4 pot? I can def dig a bet like that in this spot, however i've only played with this guy once before and he's never seen me get outta line.

How sweet would it be if I could add a 1/12 pot river bluff into my range that works like 1/10th of the time. And then obviously show it when they fold for maximum punishment.

Though who knows if it will ever work. I was playing 1/2 for a bit the other day and bluffed 1/10th pot with 6 high. I **** you not, I got called by 5 high and ended up making one of the sickest value bets of all time by accident.

I don't think he had a FD. He prob has a random King and thinks it's better than yours or more likely two pair. I think he's prob playing a draw more aggressively.

I would go for more value otr. He's still calling 2pair but he would call more also, and I wouldn't open up the door for him to take a stab at it with the A blocker.

bet 65 ott no fold equity J hi,

bet 15 otr when you hit... seems good. at least go 1/3 otr.

check back turn

IMO, you should say "Same bet" while flipping a black chip out.

How does Villain have a solid winning pro image if youve only played with him once?

OP has a solid winning pro image, villain is unknown but probably a reg with a solid winning pro image.

The OP says

"Hero's image is solid (lol) pro, winning image.
V's image is the same."

I reiterate my question. An image as a solid pro is not something I throw out there lightly because there are so few of them. I'll say 5%. Ive played with quite a few guys who I thought were tough regs/pros after one session and a few more sessions completely changed my mind about them. So Hero's definition of a solid winning pro must be different than mine.

He's making assumptions, which is what needs to happen when playing unknowns. You go off of how comfortable they're at the table. You observe if they're a reg, if they are friendly at the table with other regs, how they handle their chips, etc.

Who knows? Maybe villain has a less than favorable opinion of OP's status as a (lol) pro after this hand

OOP I like to lead small to induce sometimes. IP tho its just a standard value bet, I'd still go on the small side, more like 75-90.

Most players don't bet the come on FDs, especially when given the opportunity to take a free card on the turn, so he may look you up with Kx or hopefully made 2pair with the 9.