2/5 Flopped set, simple math question - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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2/5 Flopped set, simple math question

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10-29-2016 , 04:48 PM

Jarretman

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 2,937

I have 8h8c

Flop is Qs8s7s, $57 in pot from preflop, villain bets $35, I raise to $115, villain calls.

Turn 6s, villain leads for $175, he has exactly $101 behind and I cover.

I just wanted to check my math on this. So, assuming a few things:

-I always win if board pairs
-I always lose if board doesn't pair
-I always win the $101 of villain if board pairs
-Villain always has a flush

If those assumptions are true, then pot = $287 + $175 + $175 = $637

So I need to call $175 to win $637 + $101 so I need $175/$738 = 23.7% equity to call.

Following those assumptions I have +/- 20% equity with 88 so this is a fold, correct?

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10-29-2016 , 05:10 PM

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,490

Seems right.

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10-29-2016 , 05:21 PM

johnnyBuz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 7,563

There is also the occasional straight flush which will have you beat, but even without that consideration it's still slightly -EV.

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10-30-2016 , 04:11 PM

Jarretman

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 2,937

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyBuz

There is also the occasional straight flush which will have you beat, but even without that consideration it's still slightly -EV.

It's funny because him having a straight flush would actually be a good thing due to the bad beat jackpot. FWIW I think he would never lead a straight flush OTT.

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