May have leveled myself on the river here, is this a value jam or a check back?

V - MAG is the effective stack with $400. He seems TAGish and has not gotten out of line in the hour we've been at the same table. Also hasn't shown anything down so I don't think he's calling light but he's won some pots as well so he's not overly passive.

OTTH:
V opens UTG to $20, and it folds all the way to Hero OTB with TT, given V's tight image and position and that there are no other callers Hero decides to flat instead of 3!. I had 3! Vs late position raise once earlier in the session and he folded. BB calls behind.

Flop ($60): Q T 3
V leads for $25. Hero calls, BB folds.

Turn ($110): Q T 3 5
V leads for $35. Hero raises to $100. V does not appear happy, checks his cards and makes the call.

River ($310): Q T 3 5 K
V checks. Hero? I have V on AKx, AQ, KQs, AA, KK, QQ, maybe some other Ax. If the river was an under card I was planning to jam for Vs remaining $220. I feel like the K killed the action and now I'm only getting called by KQ or hands that beat me. I don't believe V will call it off with 1 pair hands, especially if it's not top pair. Slow played clubs, KK, QQ, AJx, are all ahead. I feel like AA, AQ are folding now, just seems like targeting KQs, AK is too thin here. Thoughts?

Also may be relevant that V saw Hero just call in position against a different barreling V and then jam after V checked river where Hero showed a set and won. Not sure if this makes V feel like I'm only raising turn and betting river with nutted hands thus further only getting called by better? In other words, Hero has a nitty image.

Not sure why you think AA and AQ are auto folding for a 2/3 PSB when the obvious draws brick. These types of hands are often glued to LLSNL Vs fingers.

In order for the value jam to be proper, we need to beat 50% of Vs calling range. We beat 6 combos of AA, 12 combos of AQ (3 combos if he is only calling turn with Ac), 2 combos of KQs (where if he gets to the river with KQ, he probably gets to the river with all AQ combos) and 6 combos of AK that include the Ac or Kc for a total of 26 combos.

We lose to 3 combos of KK, 3 combos of QQ, and 3 combos of AcJx. I'm not convinced on the slow played clubs, and there aren't many reasonable UTG club combos left besides AcKc and AcJc once you factor in the high club cards on the board.

So, we likely beat 26 combos and lose to 11 reasonable combos that V would call with. Even if you cut down the AQ combos to ones including Ac we're still beating 50% of his calling range. Thus, I would value jam here.

(forgive me if i counted combos wrong, i'm still practicing with the concept... It's probably roughly correct though)

Definitely checking river. I think you have a hard time getting calls from worse here.

The issue is that a lot of his AA/AK/AQ have the A of clubs which blocks the most obvious draw so he'll have a hard time calling it off.

Bet river $150-$210

220left so is this on purpose to leave a little back for V

AP I shove

This seems like a pretty optimistic range. Given V description I don't think he calls turn with anything that draws dead against a flush. I know I wouldn't. I'd expect to get called OTR by KcQ (3 combos), AcA (3 combos), KK/QQ (6 combos) and AcK (3 combos). I expect him to fold AxKc OTT and AcQ OTR. 15 combos is still more than the 11 of hands that beat us, but he might not call all of them all the time. I think it's very close, basically, fine to go either way.

I feel what makes this hand a bit simpler to play is that you guys are not too deep on the river , I mean if he Jams river are we folding ? Maybe 1/10 times folding 90% calling, it's not like your $1000 behind here, sometimes you just gotta gamble and go with it , I would probably just rip in $120- $140 and hopefully he just calls behind,

Didn't notice that

but yeah think just verbally the word "all-in" makes it more likely for him to believe we have a flush here and generates more FE.

Conversely

When we are value shoving riv live esp do you guys think its worth leaving them a small amount on purpose

I remember from my limited online exp it worked well since all three options were available to click on lol

In the scenario that you cover them by a lot obv, looks suspect if you purposely leave yourself 5 bucks left hahaha

+1.

V's sizing seems to small for QQ to me, especially his turn bet so I discount that a decent amount. Seems like the only hand that we lose to is KK here so I am definitely betting for value on this board. I think I downsize to get called by his one pair hands (AA and AQx most likely)...I say go $110.

This seems like really bad logic. As long as we're not super deep we shouldn't try to play our best game? It's only 44 big blinds but I don't think that's the point. These decisions certainly add up over a session and over a year and over a lifetime to be significant.

I like this post a lot and have since changed my mind to agree that V would probably make a stand and not fold AcA. Thanks for the input.

Good point, in the moment I didn't really consider sizing down to $110 and never folding. Perhaps his 1 pair hands are more likely to call against those odds but if he's thinking he can still see through this and fold. He hadn't paid anyone off on the river so I didn't assume he would make an exception this time without at least top pair, meaning we are targeting a very thin range. This thought may have changed my mind.

I also agree that you and I would play top set with a stronger sizing but V on a relatively short stack and out of position could also be pot controlling on a monotone board against a perceived nitty opponent. Didn't want to read too much into his sizing. Since we don't block clubs I would only be slightly surprised if V flopped the nuts and was sizing down to keep us in. When we raise turn and he shows concern that's much less likely but it could all be Hollywood...

Our ranges where V calls seem to differ a bit. I concede that AcA is probably calling though despite OP.
I had similar thoughts.
Noted, thx.
Tend to agree as shorn mentioned sizing down may have been optimal when betting river.

Throw in 240 don't say all in

I took the concern he showed on the turn as legit from your post, hence why I suggested the line of down betting. You were there though so maybe it could be H'Wooding. As for pot control on a monotone board, I would say that is less likely from a MAG. Most of them are afraid of a bad beat and therefore won't bet small to trap, especially for two streets. And even if he was doing that, then I don't think he could be capable of seriously faking concern once you raise the turn. Anyway, interested to hear what you did and how it ended up.

I took it as legit as well but I try to let reads influence ranges without being absolute 100% modifiers. Was just making the point that an observation I made may not always be correct. In general I tend to have a tougher time with these small sizings because I don't use them myself often and on a board this draw heavy it didn't seem to match his image.

Anyway as you probably suspected Hero leveled himself into a check back OTR. Another factor I considered was that being in position with this rooms rules I would also get to see Vs cards and perhaps use that information later in the session.

V shows AQ and Hero scoops, I'm 99% sure he folds to any bet OTR, but obviously I'm playing against his whole range here and not one hand. IMO we can get value from AcA, AcKx, KQ so I tend to agree with Chris that it's close and can go either way. I would have sized larger if I were him though, the K was pretty much the only card he didn't want to see. Some players would 3! jam that turn with TP + Nut flush draw. His hand and the board block a lot of flush draws as well in a raised pot against my nitty calling range.