Villain is unknown but a reg w/ a bad reputation of never tipping. Euro, aggro, arrogant. lol

Hero is effective stack w/ 1400.

Villain opens UTG +1 to 20.

Hero flats 8d8h in cutoff.

BB flats.

Flop (60) 8sKd2h

BB checks, villain bets 55.

Hero calls. BB folds

Turn (170) As

Villain bets 75. Hero Raises to 250. Villain tanks, looks to consider raising, but flats.

River (670) 9h

Villain checks. Hero bets 350. Villain raises all in.

Hero?

Can we ever fold here? What bluffs does villain have?

No no no. Villain could have been betting literally anything based on your read. 2 pair, busted fd he picked up ott, ak, a9, 72. So many hands are behind yours.

Ship it. Never folding. Too much AK from villain to consider a fold. Might even try to sneak more chips onto the table.

Can't find a fold, especially since we are not blocking AK.

A bluffing hand could be KsQs which picked up NFD on turn, and blocks AK/AQ.

V's line looks like value given the strength you're showing, but his line also doesn't make a lot of sense.

That's a big flop bet by V, followed by a pretty small Turn bet - pretty inconsistent with all hands that beat you.

Given this flop texture, would AA or KK really cbet that large on the flop, and would 99 call the Turn x/r?

I so want to call, but H's line is very strong and V still c/r river. The small bet on the turn could have been to induce, which worked.

I guess because of the AK combos, this is probably a call, but I'm shedding a tear or two as I do it. A fold is fine, too, if you never show. I need a read at the table to help decide.

Raising turn is really weird from you. You raise a turn that hurts your range but helps Villains. I’d call turn then we can raise rivers.

Can’t fold since you literally cannot have a better hand.

I thought about this and considered flatting. But I thought the raise might look I picked up a flush draw. Also I wanted to start building a pot. I chose a raise size that was small enough to perhaps induce a spazz or encourage villain to call w/ one pair holdings.

I do agree that the turn raise is awkward and should in theory be very polarized but Im not sure if villain is thinking on this level.

Cry-call without more reads but its close, a fold is not awful.

Somewhat awful in that you are literally folding the top of your range and villain can eliminate higher sets since you did not 3!.

Villain bets pot on the flop, chances of him having KK are very low imo. Same goes for AA.

Call for me. If he has a bigger hand you were always going to lose money in this pot.

I wouldn't raise turn.

AP river might be a crying fold 300bb deep vs a reg, don't blame a call though. I don't think a reg here is ballsy enough to yolo shove KQss/turn some weird hand into a bluff, or is value shoving AK here at that high of a frequency. I think decision might come down to live reads. If he starts looking even a little uncomfortable from you tanking, I would probably call since he can have AK.

Mandatory call. Trying to get away from set-over-set is a losing play in the long run. Don't fold sets.

Even against a value-only range of {AA/KK/AK} you're easily ahead.

Ugh. I agree with the people saying the betsizing is fishy going from pot otf to small ott, but you don't know if he would do this with AK...Gross spot but you gotta call.

With this range, I only have him around 3:1 to call so it would be slightly unprofitable.

My calculation is 725/2095 = 34.6%.

725 to call and 2095 in the pot.

Are you saying there is more chance he has AK than either AA or KK because there are more combinations of AK with hole cards than AA or KK?

Sometimes you gotta get stacked

I am definitely stacking off here, but it does concern me, the river action....

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Wtf this is a snap fold face up

Don’t raise turns that improve villain range and hurt ours

We beat 9 combos of AK. We lose to 6 combos of AA/KK, and he likely doesn't play them all this way. Sure you can say he may not play all his AK that way either, but the combos are definitely in our favor. Plus we're literally at the top of our range.

Can't fold. Call but expect to lose a fair amount of the time.

What flush draw? KsQs, KsJs that is just a couple of hands and FWIW why would he bet that light if he put you on a flush draw. He isn’t bluffing on the river. I think you have a crying call on the river after the x/r.

WP IMO, now call. Kinda have a sick feeling in my gut with the river action, but I'm never considering a fold. I'm definitely okay with making exploitative folds to a lot of 2/5 players, but not here. As others have said, this is literally the best hand you'll ever have here.

I'm also fine with the turn raise, especially with the description of V. 280bbs isn't short stacked by any means, but it's also not so deep that I'd pot control with flopped middle set. Given Vs line, if you're beat I'd expect it to be by AA and not KK. A lot of players will bet flop very large to protect AA, even on boards like this where it's not necessary. It's a rough spot to get over-setted for just under 300bb, but there's still more combos of AK then AA/KK, and there's always some spazz factor with aggressive arrogant players, even if it is very small. Not fist-pumping by any means, but never considering a fold either. You're getting about 2.5/1 OTR, and I think he'll have something other than AA/KK at least 1/3rd of the time.

not folding

If turn is better for villains range why not raise ? Because he would fold all worse hands?

Result:

I tanked hard. I fully expected to see KK or AA but reasoned that there are more combos of AK however I did not expect a river shove w AK but would expect him to call. Also I expected to see 99 as well but his flop sizing and call of my turn raise negated that pretty heavily.

I called and villain showed QJo

Not quite sure what to think pretty surprised hed have his bluff here; I think his flop sizing and float on the turn are WAY to wide. But obviously if he has the balls to show up w a bluff in the face of his opponent showing this much strength then more power to him. He was VERY tilted after this hand and 4 bet me every single time I 3bet him after this during the session lol

Wow! Seems like a tough spot

Weird bet on the flop by him. So dry and yet he virtually pots it.

I’m not sure if he ever does this with AK? Maybe? I think that’s the big question here.

Also I’m not sure if we are deep enough to fold here as well.

I think we are supposed to call based on how high up in our range we are. I think we lose a fair amount tho

A few orbits later a spot came where a mid position short stack opened to 15 and the same villain three bet in the cutoff to 60. Villain is effective stack w about 1500 @ this point and I cover. Im in the sb w AQo. Whats your play here? Is this just a fold against this player?

I elected to 4bet to 180. Villain 5bets to 460.

I decided to fold and wait for a better spot. But is 6bet shoving here complete and utter spew? If we are expecting to get 4bet fairly often should we just be folding AQo in this spot? What about AQs? Or AKo?