2/5 local casino, Friday night.

Hero - prob seen as good TAG reg, mid-40s white guy. Ran well early, I've run up 1k stack to over 2k. Table did see me get out of line about 15-20 min ago.. .raised UTG w 2c3c, 45J..8..6 run out. Bet river after c/c'ing turn, got called had to show haha.

Villain (who I beat in the above hand): regular weekend rec player, older like 60ish white guy, big dude, I think he coached small college football maybe. Always looks kind of surly, but seems nice enough. Tends to be fairly TAG, but definitely not afraid to play big pots.
He was having a horrible session, with the worst moment being shoving in a 4-bet pot on a K-9-2 flop, lost to AK when he flipped over his pocket 10s and noted (truthfully) that he thought he flopped a set. Had just started rebuilding his stack with a few nice hands and now has about $1400. (but still probably a tad salty about the hand I won with 2c3c)

Villain raises UTG+2 to $20. MP caller, I call BTN w 88. BB calls.

(pot $76) Flop A82 Villain bets $40. MP folds. I tank briefly, then put out a raise to $200. BB folds. Villain pauses, starts to stack chips. "Raise" - throws out a total of $600. While his face is always kind of grimace-y, he was sitting up straight, generally looked comfortable to me. He has about $700-750 remaining.


Thoughts? I felt very uncomfortable right away.. fearing AA, or maybe KsQs. Thinking that a hand like AxKs more likely to call here vs raise. Feels like he has a very narrow range of hands that beat me (3 combos AA, 1 of KsQs, maybe another spade combo or 2), and those that I'm ahead of (3 combos of AxKs, maybe AxQs?). But again - thinking he would have been more hesitant to raise with one pair/FD. Those combos put me either waaay behind or only marginally ahead. Not considering a call at this point - shove or fold.

I wondered if he might overplay back at me due to the earlier hand. OTOH, he has started a decent comeback and might be cautious here without the goods...

flatting flop

As played fold

Either very far behind or very slightly ahead.

Only hand you want him to him to show up with 22 and I don't think he's raising UTG +2 with 22.

I did consider flatting flop.

Do you think this is obviously best or just marginally better than raising?

Flatting is by far the most +ev choice.

re-raising accomplishes one thing, blowing out his AK/AQ with no spade or getting value from his AK/AQ with 1 spade which still has good equity against us.

However the times it gets value from his AK with one spade or AQ with spade will not outweigh the times he has a made flush/AA and puts us in a tough spot like this.

Also if he does have AA or a low flush(rare) we can now steal the pot on a 4th spade with position.


Flating gives us more options later against strong hands and allows him to keep barreling his weak AK with no spades rather then have him fold them.


If we flat and the board runs clean and he keeps barreling i'm flating the whole way. if the board pairs and he continues to barrel i'm reraising river and folding to a 4!. Unless he bets 75-100% of the pot in which case i'm just flatting.

If board runs a 4th spade on turn and i'm checked too i'm betting it half pot, if called and checked again on river no board pair i'm betting again for half pot. Just like i'd do if I actually had the K of spades.

If board runs 4th spade no board pair on river betting half pot.

Flat flop considering you're ~300bb eff. If we were closer to 100bb eff we can raise flop looking to get it in.

AP, pretty easy fold. If villain actually found a bluff here tip your cap.

Uhm, we're only "very far" behind AA. We have 34 percent against a flush, and with 70 percent against a flushdraw we're also never only "very slightly" ahead.

Having said that, I don't get the raise either, let alone to 200. We're 280bb deep, I'd always flat on the flop here. 100bb deep, I don't mind a raise/gii at all, but this deep I might not even have a raising range at all on this flop. Call and play a turn. Depending on the card that comes(,his overall demeanour) and his sizing if he bets again, you could still decide to raise then (tread carefully though, I still don't think that would be standard), but to actively try getting it all-in for almost 300 bb's on this monotone flop with middle set would be spewy in my book.

I'm not going to beat a dead horse here as you can see most agree your raise allowed him to potentially blow up the pot and push you off of your hand. A hand in which you my be way ahead.

His range is wide enough considering your history, of all the choice I peg him for AK with king of spades and a few other combos. Only AA concerns me of course.

Considering him seeing you with the 2-3 of clubs and his current unhappiness, I grab my groin and shove, risking being down $400 in the session if I am wrong and lose, or, up $2400 if I win.

I will give you my thinking, and this is just a personal preference of my psychology, you can take it for what you will or share your thinking. When I'm in these spots I often ask myself "with this table dynamic, my image and the play so far, if I lose can I still run up a profitable session". If the answer is a resounding yes, I shove without a second thought. If I feel the table is too tight and not great to make my money back, I might lean towards folding and then just go home.

That said, I've never folded middle pair, ever in a cash game. Even on a flushed board. I'm willing to gamble for the board to pair. Once I hit my gin card I'm generally sticky and pushing in often comes with great fold equity. In fact, I won my largest pot ever on such a board in a 3 way all in.

I'm guessing you folded and didn't see his hand? Tell us the outcome.

i think flatting flop is much, much better than raising in position, this deep with this board texture.

Flop is std flat ap yuck fold but kick yourself for raising

grunch

Raising this flop does not make a lot of sense exactly for the reason that you're making a "yuck" post about this hand. If MP called or there were people behind you then sure, raise for value, but as is, calling here and playing more streets in position is best.

As played, I'd probably just jam here. I don't think we can fold.

You're not marginally ahead of AK, you're 70% to win. You're in better shape vs a flush of his than he is with a draw vs you.

Thanks for the feedback. I did consider flatting flop bet, but not as much as I should've and that was the key decision.

Anyway, I did fold after a brief time in the tank.

Villain went on to have a great session/comeback. A few hours later, while he was in line at the cage, I asked him about the hand.

People only b/3b monotone boards with flushes. I’d call flop, you’re just blasting him off AK AQ AT that don’t have spades and isolating yourself against flushes, AA, and AxKs, maaaaaybe AxQs, but a lot of people are gonna fold that facing a huge raise.

Flat callflop. As played I’d just ship it in too much equity

Pretty obvious people don't b/3b without the immortal nuts or 2nd/3rd nuts this deep.

You blew yourself off your own equity IP.

Good fold though, jamming here is just mega spew.

shove

I'm more interested in the 2c3c hand, wtf

haha I'm waay more disciplined preflop than I used to be, but I was up over 1k and kind of dominating the table so made it 20 to go w 23.. I'm UTG 7-8 handed.

Same Villain calls on BTN, one other caller, about $60 to flop of

4d5dJc

I bet $40, villain calls ($140)

Turn 8x ... I ck, villain bets $100.. I tank and call, just feeling like he doesn't have a diamond draw and if I hit I'll get a bet in there

($340) River 6x. I lead for $135, knowing he could have a 7... he briefly tanks and calls, he mucks and looks more annoyed than usual when I flip over the butt straight

Questionable turn call, I suppose...

I see merit to both flatting flop and raising. But if are going to raise, you need to watch your sizing. I think $200 is way too much here as it allows V to do what he did and get you to fold. Given we are so deep, have flopped a big hand and therefore want to build the pot a bit, I actually do like a raise here to something like $125 where if V 3! to say $400, we can comfortably call without risking our entire stack and in general getting proper odds with 2 cards to come. As it stands, the pot was laying you $916/$400 or 2.3-1 so we really only need to be good here 30% of the time for a 0 EV call (1 out of 3.3x). It is pretty close actually and I might have called assuming I thought V would stack off if the board paired.

But either way, I think it was your sizing that made this a difficult spot overall.

find it even worse that people wanna shove before they fold here. If you want to continue against his flop 3b (which you should if you want to raise in the first place), then just call.

but flop is a clear flat.

We flopped a set honey