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2/5 Flopped the nuts, when playing it right goes wrong... 2/5 Flopped the nuts, when playing it right goes wrong...

07-31-2018 , 01:47 PM
Staying clear of the spoiler for now ...
1) I think you have your V1/V1/V2 a bit messed up, but I think we've all figured it out.
2) $15 rake!! Yikes ...

PF ... fine, I do it. You just have to know how to fold more often than you would like even when you connect.

Flop ... Where's your value coming from later in the hand? Although unknown, you are classifying 'her' as a tighter Player who will most likely fold to a Flop raise. My question is under what circumstances are you going to get more chips out of that stack on the Turn? My own answer to that is ... very few, UNLESS she has already connected or has connected to the Turn. We are assuming she has an over-pair (and maybe AKh), so the only way she puts in more chips is if you are behind except for the nut flush. If BB Donks again, she gone. If Turn checks to you and you bet and BB calls, she gone. I just don't see very many spots where she continues unless she's married to AA/KK .. and then she's calling your Flop raise (or shoving) anyway.

Our LAG is wide and he Donked .. and you have history with him. His range with you should be wide as well. So he is less likely to have you nutted, especially in position, which (I agree) make it likely he will continue to a reasonable raise. Please raise most of the time.

Turn ... BB Donks again, but weakly into two players .. and another flat. I actually think flatting here is OK once you flat the Flop, but I still don't like 'trapping' two players, especially one that 'will' beat me if they hit. Raising here pretty much announces our hand as 7x and should generate more folds than a Flop raise would IMO. I probably raise here just because the Donk gives such a good price to stick around. If the Donk were bigger, then I probably just call.

River ... When a hand turns completely around from an aggression standpoint the Player typically has it. The King is a bad card for us. We are looking at calling off 450 to win 1100 (unless BB calls w 97/K7/7x/55). Is she really bluffing (yes, AA/AK/QQ are bluffs) more than 30% of the time? Pretty unlikely, but it's really hard to fold here.

Trapping Nits with sets is fun, trapping with trips rarely nets a lot of 'extra' chips IMO. Nits don't put chips back in play either, so why risk giving them to a Player who wont put them back out there? Raise Flop and try to play a pot with the action Player, not the Nit. Keeping them both in the hand without charging more just gives you even more to worry about the rest of the hand.

The tone of the post is a suck-out loss. IMO it could be 99 from either Player or KK from the Nit and 7x from the BB (or both 99 and KK)! I don't think we see a River bluff shove from Nit without the goods. GL

Last edited by answer20; 07-31-2018 at 01:52 PM.
2/5 Flopped the nuts, when playing it right goes wrong... Quote
07-31-2018 , 01:59 PM
Spoiler read alert!! 'Obv' makes sense now ...

I think it's much harder to get away from this hand on the Turn than the River. Even with the BB Donk I think Players are much more likely to bluff away with AA-QQ on the Turn than the River AP.

AP it's just really hard not to be beat here. What do you do if BB shoves? Is he really shoving 'just' 7x?

I'm a Goofy Player. What pisses other V off is that I'll make this fold (face up), but call them down (correctly) with 4th pair 3 hands later for similar money. GL
2/5 Flopped the nuts, when playing it right goes wrong... Quote
07-31-2018 , 02:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by answer20
Staying clear of the spoiler for now ...
1) I think you have your V1/V1/V2 a bit messed up, but I think we've all figured it out.
2) $15 rake!! Yikes ...

PF ... fine, I do it. You just have to know how to fold more often than you would like even when you connect.

Flop ... Where's your value coming from later in the hand? Although unknown, you are classifying 'her' as a tighter Player who will most likely fold to a Flop raise. My question is under what circumstances are you going to get more chips out of that stack on the Turn? My own answer to that is ... very few, UNLESS she has already connected or has connected to the Turn. We are assuming she has an over-pair (and maybe AKh), so the only way she puts in more chips is if you are behind except for the nut flush. If BB Donks again, she gone. If Turn checks to you and you bet and BB calls, she gone. I just don't see very many spots where she continues unless she's married to AA/KK .. and then she's calling your Flop raise (or shoving) anyway.

Our LAG is wide and he Donked .. and you have history with him. His range with you should be wide as well. So he is less likely to have you nutted, especially in position, which (I agree) make it likely he will continue to a reasonable raise. Please raise most of the time.

Turn ... BB Donks again, but weakly into two players .. and another flat. I actually think flatting here is OK once you flat the Flop, but I still don't like 'trapping' two players, especially one that 'will' beat me if they hit. Raising here pretty much announces our hand as 7x and should generate more folds than a Flop raise would IMO. I probably raise here just because the Donk gives such a good price to stick around. If the Donk were bigger, then I probably just call.

River ... When a hand turns completely around from an aggression standpoint the Player typically has it. The King is a bad card for us. We are looking at calling off 450 to win 1100 (unless BB calls w 97/K7/7x/55). Is she really bluffing (yes, AA/AK/QQ are bluffs) more than 30% of the time? Pretty unlikely, but it's really hard to fold here.

Trapping Nits with sets is fun, trapping with trips rarely nets a lot of 'extra' chips IMO. Nits don't put chips back in play either, so why risk giving them to a Player who wont put them back out there? Raise Flop and try to play a pot with the action Player, not the Nit. Keeping them both in the hand without charging more just gives you even more to worry about the rest of the hand.

The tone of the post is a suck-out loss. IMO it could be 99 from either Player or KK from the Nit and 7x from the BB (or both 99 and KK)! I don't think we see a River bluff shove from Nit without the goods. GL
The rake is 5+2 I just estimate amounts to the nearest 5 or 10 generally. I agree that it's hard to get extra chips out of the nit unless she hits. So why not let an A, K, Q hit the turn? BB is super wide as you've noted and could have something like AJo. Nit could also be floating AK here or obviously have an overpair. By your own argument I think since we are unlikely to get more of nits chips unless she hits why risk blowing them both off the hand OTF? If BB didn't have so much air in his range I would agree. But this guy 4! jamed 74o pre... OTT I can be more sure that BB is willing to play a big pot and should being trying to play for stacks. By that point it's already too late though if you've read the spoiler.
2/5 Flopped the nuts, when playing it right goes wrong... Quote
07-31-2018 , 02:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by answer20
Spoiler read alert!! 'Obv' makes sense now ...

I think it's much harder to get away from this hand on the Turn than the River. Even with the BB Donk I think Players are much more likely to bluff away with AA-QQ on the Turn than the River AP.

AP it's just really hard not to be beat here. What do you do if BB shoves? Is he really shoving 'just' 7x?

I'm a Goofy Player. What pisses other V off is that I'll make this fold (face up), but call them down (correctly) with 4th pair 3 hands later for similar money. GL
If BB shoves I'm not fist pump instacalling but I'm probably not folding either. I'd have to make a read. He's definitely capable of jamming 7x. Yeah, I kind of knew I was never good there, I think it was a legit tilt call. I knew it but I couldn't believe it at the same time. I had made some great calls that session too, obv that wasn't one of them.
2/5 Flopped the nuts, when playing it right goes wrong... Quote
07-31-2018 , 02:34 PM
Flop and turn are good perfect candidates for a min-raise
2/5 Flopped the nuts, when playing it right goes wrong... Quote
07-31-2018 , 02:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d
The rake is 5+2 I just estimate amounts to the nearest 5 or 10 generally. I agree that it's hard to get extra chips out of the nit unless she hits. So why not let an A, K, Q hit the turn? BB is super wide as you've noted and could have something like AJo. Nit could also be floating AK here or obviously have an overpair. By your own argument I think since we are unlikely to get more of nits chips unless she hits why risk blowing them both off the hand OTF? If BB didn't have so much air in his range I would agree. But this guy 4! jamed 74o pre... OTT I can be more sure that BB is willing to play a big pot and should being trying to play for stacks. By that point it's already too late though if you've read the spoiler.
1) There was $75+ PF .. not $60. Some on this site will want to go to the 2nd/3rd decimal when it comes to 'the maths'. I'm just prepping you for them, no biggie to me.
2) If an A,K or Q hit the Turn and she is aggressive, then you are losing. She's never putting a bunch of chips in with AK/AQ here. That's just not what they do IME, especially if there are two opponents still in the hand.

3) BB is only Donking hands he's going to continue with IMO.
4) She is probably only floating AKh here, or at least one heart, maybe. This is valid, I'm just looking at the value I'll get from her v what I lose in a suck-out. And she can slow down the BB by sticking around too.

5) He plays big pots .. all the more reason to keep him to yourself.
6) When it comes to Nits/regs who bog a game/seat down, I don't let them relax one bit, I make them show me their strength before the pot is really worth something. I don't let them sit back and pick off pots. I've just found that it's not worth it in the long run. I've got one guy that will table change away from me almost 100% of the time because I raise him 90% of the time he limps .. and then he has to choose, 3-bet and take down scraps or flat and play a bloated 3-5 way pot OOP. Now he's screwed, if he raises then everyone folds. If he limps, I make him fold PF or show that he actually has a hand 'in his range'.

I'm not really trying to be hard here, but when it comes to poker I say "Win the war, not every battle." There will be a different hand for you to take her on, just maybe not this one. It probably sounds as if it's personal between me and Nits. It's more the idea that they sit around don't contribute to the game until they pick something off once an hour or so and then go back to sleep. (And I've been playing PLO lately, where this Board is just scary!!) GL
2/5 Flopped the nuts, when playing it right goes wrong... Quote
07-31-2018 , 04:10 PM
1 - Yea that's just a basic math error, it was 25 instead of 20, noted tho.
2 - I'm not planning to stack the TAG, my main target is the BB. My thinking was more that TAG could continue to flat if she hits a pair, especially if she had the heart draw to go with it. I'm not focusing on TAG I'm trying to maximize in general. Don't think we need to raise flop to do that. I do like raising turn tho.
3 - We can agree to disagree here. IMO there is a large part of his range that will continue but there is maybe as much as 20% b/f, especially after TAG calls and I raise and TAG is still behind. He could be facing a 3! OTF. He's bad but he's not a slam dunk guaranteed aggro / station LAG.
4 - Agreed, so why not let her catch a pair or a heart so she can come along? BB will tell us OTT if he is strong enough to continue, we are in position. Don't see any real case for raising flop in general given wide ranges and our strength.
5 - LOL, we are both greedy, which is good. But I think it's more +EV to be greedy against 2 players than one. If I raise turn to $250 and get called only by LAG we can still play for stacks OTR and we give TAG a chance to flat one more bet, win/win.
6 - Thanks for the alternative point of view. Again, didn't mean to sound like I was targeting the nit or doing anything fancy. Just trying to maximize each hand. I have plenty of experience with blasting away with nutted type hands and over the years I've come to realize that I win more often but the pots are smaller because I blasted everyone off of most of their range even when they were drawing dead. Now I'm getting more value but running into these occasional brick walls. I'm sure there's no one size fits all. Just looking for insights to continue to improve.
2/5 Flopped the nuts, when playing it right goes wrong... Quote
08-01-2018 , 12:43 PM
Imagine this:
V2 has 97
V1 has JJ

Same 9 on the turn. Does it change your "correct" play on this hand?

Honestly, the only way to minimize beats like this are to play super tight pre-flop. I know that the whole point of this post is to say that as a "pro" you should be able to play loosely pre-flop and get away from coolers post flop, but I honestly think that against fish, you'll fold incorrectly more often than hands like this.

Last edited by paperboyNC; 08-01-2018 at 12:50 PM.
2/5 Flopped the nuts, when playing it right goes wrong... Quote
08-01-2018 , 01:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by paperboyNC
Imagine this:
V2 has 97
V1 has JJ

Same 9 on the turn. Does it change your "correct" play on this hand?

Honestly, the only way to minimize beats like this are to play super tight pre-flop. I know that the whole point of this post is to say that as a "pro" you should be able to play loosely pre-flop and get away from coolers post flop, but I honestly think that against fish, you'll fold incorrectly more often than hands like this.
Yes, I still think raising turn based on sizing AP would be correct. Not being results oriented against one particular hand but against both Vs entire range. In your case I would go broke OTT but in the vast majority of cases I'm keeping in his bluffs and draws and getting more than raising flop. If we base our play on "what if the worst possible 2-3 outter gets there on the next street" we are surely leaving tons of value on the table.
2/5 Flopped the nuts, when playing it right goes wrong... Quote
08-01-2018 , 01:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d
Yes, I still think raising turn based on sizing AP would be correct. Not being results oriented against one particular hand but against both Vs entire range. In your case I would go broke OTT but in the vast majority of cases I'm keeping in his bluffs and draws and getting more than raising flop. If we base our play on "what if the worst possible 2-3 outter gets there on the next street" we are surely leaving tons of value on the table.
Makes sense. You do often get more money from opponents on the turn than the river because they can still call with a draw and they can still put you on a draw.
2/5 Flopped the nuts, when playing it right goes wrong... Quote
08-03-2018 , 09:43 AM
As played folding the river is really tough. Hands your behind are 9/7, K7, 99, KK. But, honestly Vs a competent opponent is it that hard?

Your beating 55, and 7/X that only has trips.

I think I would only consider folding to the TAG player you described.

The only thing I would have done different in the hand is raise the turn. Then the question is would I be able to fold to a shove in that spot against the TAG? I’m not sure. Depends how much the player has behind.
2/5 Flopped the nuts, when playing it right goes wrong... Quote

      
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