I'm normally a 1/2 or 1/3 player, but every couple of weeks I take shots at 2/5 and never seem to have the best luck because It always seems to end with a cooler. Hero has been at the table about 2 hours and have only gotten involved in less than 5 hands so it may seem like I'm playing pretty tight.

Hero has $650 effective. Villain covers with about $1.5k. I have absolutely no knowledge about Villains play because I'm a 1/2 regular. He has won every hand without showdown except 1 hand against Hero were he had AK and hit a K on the turn and value bet hero on the river who had QQ on a J-10-x-K-x board.


HAND

one limp UTG +1, Folds to hero on the button looks at A 8 raises to $25 folds to Villain in the BB who calls, limper calls.


FLOP ($75 in pot after drop)

8 8 2

Both check to hero who bets $45, Villain calls with no real timing tells (somewhat of a tank), limper folds

TURN ($165 in pot)

9

Villain checks, Hero bets $110, Villain raises to $220, Hero
Hero calls $110

RIVER ($605 in pot)

2

Villain bets $300, Hero

Shove turn, shove river. V probably has 99 here since you posted it when you basically have the nuts, but is way more likely to have 8x in the long run that plays it the same way because it looks like you have an overpair.

Like WJ stated this is 99 a ton but without solid reads we can't fold here. While there are not many 8x hands he can have, we don't know Villain won't overplay an overpair.

Impossible to get away from this hand. Villains min-raise on the turn looks like it is for pure value, but he could be value betting a weaker 8, since he's probably putting you on an overpair. There may be some bluffs in his range too although not as likely since his raise on the turn was so small.

Hand is well played, IMO. Now shove.

Edit. If I thought that V had a value hand, then I would jam the turn. If I wasn't sure/thought he was bluffing, then I would obviously flat. But his sizing is indicative of a value hand, so shoving turn is probably best. Sucks that you lost.

It is blinds vs button. Villain can do this a lot wider than 22/99/98s particularly if you cbet/double barreled a lot in the hands he has seen you play.

I don't mind shoving turn but I think it keeps his range wider if you call turn after a judicious pause. Then I would gii after his river bet. However, this will depend a bit on how he has seen you play so far.

If you lose it is definitely a cooler given it is BB vs BTN.

Only thing that would worry me is that if he has seen you playing draws aggressively previously then his min raise on turn looks even stronger. Why is he giving you odds to possibly draw at a flush if he hasn't already got a boat? It wouldn't be enough to make me fold but if you had any other reads to go with it I think you could consider it - maybe after you reload you'll have that read

The fact that you have 8h and 9d comes ott means V can't hold 98dd or 98hh, so I think this is a pretty easy fold (if you haven't seen V limp-call trash oop, and even lc the sc's above is terrible). 22 more likely than 99 imo.

Pretty easy fold, huh?

krawl

I think villain is BB and just calls hero's raise of limper. Limper x/f flop.

Villain could have other 8X - people play weird from the blinds. He could have made a really horrible mess of playing TT+ He could have a flush draw on flop, straight draw to go with it on turn, miss river and bluff. Not saying these are all super likely but they dont have to be when there are only really 5 combos he does this with that beat hero.

Definitely calling. Probably raising turn. He could easily put you on an over-pair. If he has 99 (or 22), it's just a cooler. You just have to get used to them

lol @ anyone ever folding here. Come on.

Always shoving on the turn in these spots...too many combos of 8x and possible draws on the board. As played, call.

villain shouldn't have 99 that often coming in with a limp.

This is ether 8x or 22 or complete air.

How did he play his AK hand? Did he come in for a raise or did he just limp in? That will tell you if he is capable of limping 99 which IMO is absolutely awful but I see live players do it all the time.


As played - I really like the flat on the turn - river is probably a shove, but kinda hard for him to call with worse so I wouldn't fault a call if you want to see what he is making this move with.

I think calling so you can see his hand is most likely the best long term play especially if you plan on playing with this guy for a while.

If you or he is not a reg in the game than shoving is best.


I could see him showing up with a hand like TJcc or a random pocket pair that wants to try to fold you off your hand. He could also have 98 but I think he would bet his river more to get you All in. Why would he leave you with $100~??

That being said - I don't like calling any more and think this more or less a shove.

The bet is basically all-in for Hero (he has only $60 left after the $300), so it has to be shove

Also: Villain is BB, not the limper.

This is actually a huge conceptual mistake. V's bet is ~1/2 pot, so Hero needs to have 25% equity for calling to be correct. If Hero has say 40% equity against V's range, then Hero should always call and never shove. The EV of calling in that case would be +$182 ($1205 * 0.4 - $300). The EV of shoving would be +$170 ($1325 * 0.4 - $360), so we lose $12 by shoving instead of calling. We should only shove / raise for value if our hand has greater than 50% equity vs. Villain's calling range. With this runout, we're basically always either chopping or beat, so shoving makes zero sense.

If shoving my last $60 is a mistake, I will make it every time against this guy. I actually think we are ahead (he can almost never put us on an 8), and if he coolered us, oh, well.

Get it in on the turn, that is the only thing I would do different.

$300 american dollars into the pot otr and we're calling? That's a huge f***ing bet at LLSNL. There are exactly 2 suited one-gapper combos, 4 K8s combos, 3 A8s combos, 3 combos 99, 1 combo 22. Hands with moderate showdown value can't be counted because V should be check-calling turn/river, so no TT, JJ.

EDIT: Burnit3x is right, we're chopping all but 4 combos above. I'm discounting 89o as V seems competent and this is a terrible flat from the blinds. Super easy fold, now that we outright beat nothing.

I think there are way more chopping combos than you've recognized and is 99 ever min-c/r the turn instead of leading?

TBH I think 89 is a real concern here.

scelsi, you are forgetting his bluffs. He never puts hero on an 8. If he has one or beats us, it's just a huge cooler. Seriously. How can you even consider folding the way this was played with this table dynamic?

I just don't see V running a min-raise, half-pot bluff ott/r. It's a huge leak to call/call this spot, as it's such a valuey line from V, esp. given read (winning lots of non-sd pots, tag).

I'm in two minds about this one now.

If villain had an 8 he'd have raised bigger on the turn to deny drawing odds to hero.

After hero calls turn villain will struggle to put him on an 8 because that would usually 3bet turn allin. So villain has to think hero has overpair or a draw.

In villain's mind hero range is AXcc KXcc SCcc TT+ and a tiny amount 8X or boats. What does he expect that range to do vs his river bet? Fold all the draws and some of the over pairs and call KK+ ? Villain bet folds maybe 50 combos of busted draws and over pairs and gets called by 12 of over pairs and maybe 10 combos of boats/quads.

Villain can certainly believe his river bet will get enough folds to turn a profit on that alone.

At the same time, what is villain raising turn with that needs to bluff river? I think agree with previous poster who said his over pairs should check river. All villain bluffs river with are his own busted draws but I'm not sure they would x/c flop x/r turn and if he has AXcc he can't expect as many folds from hero.

What does villain value bet river with? Since he struggles to put hero on 8X he can cbet them but he may equally elect to x/c river thinking he can get more value from hero betting thin value or bluffing. Obviously he can vbet 9s full and quad 2s.

I think I'm now swayed twards folding this river because the hands that make most sense all beat us and against everything V vbets we chop at best. I think bluffs and badly played over pairs are just too tiny a part of his river betting range.