First orbit of a reggy 2/5, Old tight reg guy ($700) opens $25 UTG, UTG2 reg ($1100) flats, CO fish ($1100) flats, I ($400) flat 22 OTB.

Flop ($100): T82cc
UTG cbets $35, UTG2 makes it $85, CO folds, Hero ?

What does UTG and UTG2’s range look like in this spot? And what are the merits of flatting vs shoving here?

80 bb deep? Yes
Flopped a set? Yes
V shows interest in hand? Yes
Super duper, slam dunk fist pump shove hoping to go 3 ways and triple up? Confirmed

Mind ranging both the regs and listing what part of that range calls off a cold 3! giant shove vs a cbet + raise?

I'd assume you're a reg in the game enough to know who the regs are, so you should have a better idea of what people's ranges are as opposed to us who only have "old tight reg" "reg" and "fish" to go by.

In my experiences, I feel like this is a common bet sizing tell given off by to old tight reg here. If he had an overpair or AT, he would be terrified of the board getting worse and would fire a ~pot sized bet here. Betting 1/3 I'd guess underpair or maybe AK/AQ making a weak effort to test the waters to "see where he's at". I suppose he could also have the occasional 88 or TT but I think he would bet more with those.

Reg may well be aware of this, so he could be raising with a fairly wide range here including any Tx, straight draws, and flush draws. But again, it's tough for me to say with only knowing the guy as "reg".

I prefer shoving, he's not quite getting the right price to call with his draws so if he does call that is a win for you. And shoving looks more bluffy than cold calling at your stack size, he may talk himself into calling with Tx hands as well.

Based on the descriptions “old tight reg guy” and “reg” i’m Going to be unable to range them. Sorry. And for 80bb i’m Largely uninterested in ranging them. Shove is really the only play here AINEC. Not sure what the question in the post is. Hidden BBV?

Even if they all fold you stack increased 60% with no risk.

+1

Let me guess, you didn't get another penny out of either of them and now you're furious you didn't double up, because you flopped a set and deserved to double up?

So we are not bothered about our cold 3! shove looking exactly like what we have and getting calls from better hands only? You think an old reg is ever continuing with even AA facing a raise and a cold 3!? You think the guy in between won’t raise/fold JJ here?

But hey, we have a set 80 BBs deep so let’s blindly shove all in and not think about ranges and how to extract the maximum.

I wish this were true.

I haven’t played with these guys much to know more than them being regs. And I can tell they’re nits just be the feel of the game and being at the table.

I understand shoving may be good to give a bad price to the reg who raised the flop, but besides that, isn’t he and UTG folding everything that we beat? These guys don’t hero call with JJ-AA here, let alone AT.

I just felt shoving turns my hand completely face up. There aren’t too many other hands I would cold shove here.

Based on the flop action, I'd range UTG on AcAx/TT/AKcc/AQcc. More likely sizing larger to protect other over pairs.

+2 range - clubs draws, TT/88/97.

As played, I don't see merit to flatting a dynamic board like this. AI.

Pre - I would fold this pretty quickly. 22 vs a tight UTG 5X raise is in bad shape.

I assume you’re then folding everything between 22-99 because they’re all essentially the same vs UTG 5x opening range of TT+/AK/AQ? We’re never setmining against his overpairs getting 18:1?

You should've folded pre if UTG is going to fold AA to you here. Not sure what outcome you were hoping for when you called pre other than this. Hope somebody decides to hero call with an overpair.

Not sure what other option you have besides shoving -- you can make it a goofy amount like $250 leaving $150 behind if you want, but it doesn't change anything and regs should know that.

Edit since you got in under me: the medium pairs play different because they flop bigger sets when they do, e.g. 972 you flop middle or top set with 99/77 respectively. The fear you have of middle V having an overset here is valid -- the way to combat that is to fold 22-55 or so and just play the middle pairs instead so you're likelier to be the oversetter.

I would fold 44- as they are more likely to be over-setted.

An important factor is the potential payout, i.e. pre-flop raiser image. Based on the post, you are concerned about folding out over pairs with a flop shove, which makes calling sm pps unprofitable long-term.

I agree your range is pretty narrow here, but there should still be some combodraws in it. If they're really throwing all worse hands away, start shoving nut flush draws as well. It think it has been said before, but your problem just might be that YOU are literally only shoving sets here and maybe even folding QJcc (or maybe you're calling and turning your hand face-up).

I think we can agree that neither villains' sizing screams "set", and you should at least have some combodraws, so just shove and live with the results.

Let’s go a level further since you’re bringing this up... firstly, I don’t know that I’m going to be in this spot postflop when I call pre. What I expect to happen mostly is UTG bombs 70-80% pot with his overpairs on favourable flops and if it folds around, I can decide whether to raise small or flat in position and let him fire away OTT. This is not what happened here.

Here, he bets just 1/3 pot OTF so I’m 99% ruling out JJ-AA. But for arguments sake, even if he does have AA here, he is not facing a single raise, he’s facing a raise and a cold 3! shove for ~$400 in front of him. He has to be ahead of both players, not one. Any decent player would fold AA in that spot facing that action especially when he hasn’t invested much in the pot.

I would realistically put AA-JJ in his range only if he bet $75 OTF, not $35. If UTG2 then raised to say $180, I can still see him folding AA to my shove. But that happens rarely and mostly UTG2 just folds, and then I flat the $75 and let him fire turn again and shove.

@OP I think you are really over confident in your reads of opponent's ranges and what they're going to have ir how they're going to play.

Which is sort of funny given up thread you essentially have the most basic reads on them.

Any way it's super unlikely that studying this hand that in depth is going to lead to improvement in your game. You are 80bb deep, you flopped a set, and you have 2 other players interested in the pot. As long as you don't fold on the spot it's hard to see how any line would not make you money.

It wouldn't make much sense for you to call with a lot of hands here facing a bet and raise in front of you. Any line you take on future streets where spr will be much lower can't be that well hidden as a result and most of any decent bluffing candidates would have been folded on the flop. Best to shove money in now and let people make mistakes vs what at least has the potential to be a much wider range.

Flatting just doesn't accomplish much. It's almost scarier than shoving. Plus, you hate a ton of turn cards (and maybe so do they). Playing short makes this pretty easy. If you honestly think you are behind, just fold (really gross -- should have folded pre), but otherwise, just gii. Who cares if they fold? If we are behind it's a cooler for less than 100bb.

I’m honestly not bothered if UTG2 shows up with 88/TT in this spot, that was something I was willing to live with when I flatted 22 pre. I definitely think he can be wider than just that raising UTG’s weak ass sizing OTF to less than 3x. He could have all NFDs, JJ, ATs, maybe even QQ if he’s afraid of UTG. He shouldn’t have any combo draws like J9cc here flatting the UTG 5x open IMO.

My problem is a lot of those hands will just fold to a $370 shove here whereas if I just flat, my hand may seem like a draw and let them fire again, albeit risking letting them hit their draw (if they have one). Obv this means we should be shoving wider than just sets here and I probably do shove some FDs in this spot, but these are not people I play with every day that I need to balance my shoving range here. I won’t see or play with them again. So I want to study this spot in isolation.

This isn’t a LIVE AT THE BIKE game where the droolers will call it off with 1p for the gamble, this is some serious 2/5 with a bunch of nitty ass players.

Put yourselves in UTG2’s shoes guys —would you continue with JJ/ATs in this spot facing a cold $370 shove from the BTN?

... I wouldn’t.

But would you bet JJ/ATs on a low turn if the FD bricked and SPR was 1 in a $300 pot?

... Absolutely I would.

Would you barrel/shove blank turns with your flush draws?

... I would.

What would you be hoping to get called by or fold out in a range that flatted an Utg c bet and an UTG+2 raise?

You got things all figured out, congratz.

Needed to type something else, so here it is.

Okay well, like others have said, the issue here isn't that you should do something different with your set, the issue is that you should widen your bluffing range in this spot to include your NFDs and combo draws.

Have you thought about game selecting away from this game when the lineup is a bunch of nitty ass players? Sounds miserable.

Which is why 22 is a fold pre vs. a tight UTG 5X raise.

Also, ATcc would probably be 2-3% short of calling a shove profitably vs. 22 specifically, but adding in a couple of worse hands gets him there. Even without, it's close enough in the heat of the moment.