Based on his line, he is not shoving here--in fact, I have him on TPTK, at the absolute best. If he does shove, you have 31% equity in the pot.

I mean, the heart only comes on the turn only about 18% of the time. So 82% of the time you'll be forced to fire the turn with a bare four outs and have no options if you get check-shoved on. Also when you float the flop he'll barrel turn some percent of the time too, in which case 82% of the time you can't do anything but fold. You guys are thinking too much within the confines of what had happened in the hand thus far by the turn and not by the potential ways it could unfold.

When I early advocated at least the possibility of a raise on the flop, it was under the assumption that villain is strictly level 2, since obviously just raising the flop solely based on the board texture is ******o-spew and wouldn't make much sense. But assuming OP had a general idea of the range of hands villain would cbet on the flop at that sizing and their general history/gameflow thus far (if OP could determine whether villain bet/folds a K or worse), then a flop-raise is definitely a legitimate possibility albeit one that wouldn't (and shouldn't) be done all that often since raise-folding the flop sucks way more than bet-folding the turn.

If you called behind on the flop to take it away on the turn, why are you asking this question? You need to fire this turn for 2 reasons, 1 you still have fold equity. Villian is either shutting down or c/r here. 2 if you check behind and miss you cannot bluff the river and if you check behind and hit you will not get paid. Do not float if you are not going to try to take the pot. Personally, I would bet about $85 here and see how villian reacts. My gut says he will not push over the top but if he does you can still get away.

I did not get this far down the thread when I made my reply but I agree with you that a push is certainly something you should fear as this would be a bad spot for you to get your money in. That is why I advocated a bet that you could legitimately b/f to a push. That being said, the way this hand has played out, I wouldn't expect the villain to push very often if he views you as nitty (less than 20% of the time IMO) and if he is creative enough to c/r you here with air I think he deserves the pot.

bet the turn around 100, checking is silly because when you do hit your hand he often doesnt have anything to play you off with anyways becuase he doesnt have much here most of the time,and your plan is/should be to bet alot of turns when checked to anyway or your flop call becomes bad.

I think if you bet that amount on the turn you should really be firing the river as a bluff and for value when you hit, I mean what is he c/c turn and river with here? weird way to play a flopped set or KJ or something. He often has a hand like KQ or AK of he is c/c this turn and with your image and your des. of villian you should get alot of folds on many rivers.

This is really bad logic fundamentally. Floating is the ONLY way you are taking down this pot without committing your entire stack as a huge dog when called. You have position!!! Use it. No reason to create a large pot when you completely whiff the flop. And jamming the turn if he called your flop raise would be even bigger spew.

^This is wrong.

Your line is ok if you have history with this player, otherwise I just fold this flop.

Have to bet the turn here after floating the flop and picking up 9 more outs. I bet ~110 and give up if I get called and miss the rvr

Both the preflop call and the flop call are -EV. There is some merit to checking the turn, given that you have so many outs, but I think you get a lot of folds or calls rather than raises so its not so bad, since calling builds a huge pot if you hit OR builds a big pot for you to steal.

If you bet turn and villain c/r's all-in, he has AK at worst. Hero has 25% equity against a range of {sets, KJ, AK}, with sets taking up the largest part of that range.

One question here is what hand are you representing and what hands are you targeting?
It's possible you have AK/KQ and possible he has J-broadway/QQ/KQ. A turn bet is ok, but assuming he calls a $100 bet I feel that those hands are reduced from his range. When you bet the river instead of checking, *your* range becomes fairly polarized to KJ, 66 and hands that are bluffing. But would you flat KJ and 66 on the flop? Has he seen you slowplay?

Many in your spot with KQ generally would take a free showdown, though it's possible you would turn it into a bluff. The right river card could be a scare card to follow through on, but with a total blank I can't think of many (better) hands he would lay down after calling the turn.

same can be said for his range though, like why is he gonna c/c c/c with a marginal TP type hand OOP against a player with a tight image, I know what your saying MoM, but unless you give villian credit to hand read at that level, I dont see him taking that line with any above average hand for the most part.

So I have no problem firing the semibluff on the turn (it will solve the problem of folding out AQ for sure) but once we get past that, do you think his range includes QQ on down? I don't know, maybe, but it's kind of a weird plan to c/c anything weaker than KQ "just to see if hero fires again on the river." So we are pretty much targeting AA/AK/KQ with the river bluff, all of which we might think are a little weird for him to check on the turn in the first place unless he was going into "induce bluff/misguided value bet" mode, which I can attest to having done a couple times against players with a taggish tendency. fwiw, I think KQ (and maybe QQ, AJ?) takes a c/c, c/f line but I'm not convinced about AK/AA.

yeah its a good question for sure, I just think most decent players are going to value bet this turn with the hands you mentioned checking is kinda of bad, live game are passive so you are missing value by checking the turn with AA/AK etc.
most players arent going to fire turn/river with worse, they might fire the turn with air but most arent going to value bet like KQ on the river if checked to.

Thanks everyone for the responses!! Lots to think about.

Hand finishes out as follows:
I am super happy to see that heart on the turn,even happier when he checks.
I was firing to follow thru on the float anyway,now I'm actually semi-bluffing w/lots of outs.

I expect villian to fold about 80% to my turn bet,smooth call about 15%, and push about 5%. Once again,although it's a minimal chance,what do I do if he pushes? Calling $305 to win $663 leaves me paying a bad price to hit my draw.

A great question was posed ITT: do I fire a missed river if he flats the turn/checks river to me????

Unfortunately,none of the above scenarios happened.
I fire $100 at the turn and he INSTA min raises to $200. I literally laughed out loud. Ok,that's 100% a set. Hmmm. Call a $100 to win $460 w/10 outs knowing he is pushing EVERY river giving me another $205 when I hit? Ok, I call.

I wish I could say that a 5 of clubs didn't roll off,but I can't. He shoves,I fold.

Btw,I'm putting his turn flatting range on AK,KQ,QQ,Q10,maybe AJ,and sometimes AA.
I think his turn shove range is KK,JJ,66,KJ,and sometimes AA.

I thought the m/r was so odd. I guess he must have put me on a one pair/two pair kind of hand,drawing thin to dead. His m/r would "commit me" to call his river shove.