Villain: Sat down recently, looks nerdish/smart but wearing expensive, lowkey clothing. Definitely takes poker seriously from his demeanor, is new to the casino, bought in for full. Has raised several times since sitting down.

Hero: Has ~2200 in front of him, mostly in black chips. Young, nerdish, slightly unkempt. Has been mostly folding since villain sat down.

Villain opens MP to $25, V2 (slightly loose winning regular) flats, hero makes it $80 with K2 in the CO, v1 thinks a bit and calls, v2 calls.

Flop: A76 ($240)
Both villains check, hero bets $160, V1 calls, V2 folds.

Turn: 7 ($560)
V1 checks, hero bets $340


Thinking: pre I 3bet light in a good spot for it. My sizing is a little too small, I think $90 is better. I think dynamics encourage me to 3bet extremely wide here (skilled unknown villain, perceived tight hero)

On the flop I would often check back, I bet here because of the K blocker, it is definitely not always a bet even with our hand. Once villain calls I put him on AK, AQ, AJs, KhQh, 66, 77 10% random stuff like QQ/KK/AA, A6s/A7s/Axs/89s/QJhh that I don't think is in his range pre or plays differently post but I may be wrong.

I bet the turn because he seems good enough to fold anything worse than AK, I'm leveraging his whole stack (he has $420 behind) and getting a real good price, plus the 7 cuts out 2 set combos and my K cuts AK down to 9 combos (+ a little less cause he 4bets with it pre sometimes).

Your line seems spewy to me

Not sure why we should be 3betting in this spot in particular?
I am sure K2s is not a great hand to do it with. Too many flops where this kind of hand just doesn't have any equity at all, as seen above. The blocker adds some value but not enough to counter for the complete unplayability of this hand imo.

Postflop: This turn bet needs to succeed (340/(340+560)=)~38% of the time. Of the range you assign to him I'd say roughly 16 combo's don't fold (77-66,AKs,AKo) but roughly 20 likely do (AQ-AJs,98s,KhQh). So based on that this 2nd barrel is decently +EV (20/(16+20)=55%).
However if that random 10% range you talk about also contains some nicely hidden monsters like AA/A7s/87s/76s, our EV obviously goes downhill real fast.

A couple things I want to say about this hand:

3betting light: I'm cool with 3betting light especially given the right dynamics, and I do it often myself. However I think things like Ax suited are better as a 3bet bluff because they have SDV over Kx which you have to cbet almost every flop. You touched on sizing already and I would also make it 90-95, as 80 is too good of a price.

Flop: We must cbet this board, as we have no SDV but we do have a backdoor and initiative. I don't like your sizing here however. An ace will probably not fold this flop, and a villain that plans to fold an ace will fold to a barrel regardless, so your bet of 160 into 240 doesn't accomplish anything more than say a bet of 120 or even maybe 100 depending on how sticky they are. Remember that this is a multiway pot where V2s range is super capped because of his line pre, but you put V1 in a tough spot even when he has a strong ace because V2 has to act behind. You simply don't need to bet so much.

Turn: I think here it comes down to is villain capable of folding an ace, which is the majority of his range at a high enough frequency that makes your DB profitable. If that answer is yes, then I like it, especially with the outs we picked up. But if that answer is no, I'd just check back and hope to bink a diamond.

Slightly unkempt. ... shirt untucked or wait staff whispering about you in the back?

Agree flop bet too much.

I'm pretty cool with a fold pre.

Cool hand, honestly, and I'm sorry you ran into AA ...

I probably would remove AK pre for a few reasons, and include more SCs until I know more about him, but that leads to the problem I have with what you're trying to accomplish... You just have no reliable info on his thresholds which makes postflop play awfully difficult when you're starting out with the worst hand such a high% of the time, even IP. It's also very easy to overestimate perceived image, which you're heavily relying on to make this work.

On the flop, you should have massive FE, yet he ck-c with a player still behind. Does he play combo draws this way? Sets? Is he committing to a call down w AQ? Perhaps he'll station off naked SDs?

On the turn, sure 7xhh improves but not little else has changed. Repping AK/AA/KQhh this hard is quite reasonable and I do agree that all hands <AK should fold... But they don't have to, and he also may have some ck-shoves with hands worse than K high which isn't pretty (not that I agree with such a line facing heros sizing, but it's possible)

You basically need him to have AQs that didn't 4b, that ck-c one street and is good enough to ck-f turn... A worse player probably spews FDs at some point or hero calls down to AJ expecting hero to show KK... Cool line, good thoughts, but assumptions galore.

Axs I can call with preflop, I expect to get folds from both players fairly often so postflop playability matters less to me than blockers (though it still matters, thus the SUITED).
In general, I want to use hands that I cannot profitably call with to bluff raise with in position (polarized), while out of position I use a strong range. This is because I expect to get called lighter when my opponents have position.

I agree on the sizing, and I think I make a mistake with sizing across all the streets (especially on the turn). I strongly disagree with your reasoning behind your first point - just because we don't have SDV doesn't mean we have to continuation bet. I expect the preflop 3bet to be profitable on its own, so we can drop a lot of our air on the flop. Also this is a great flop to check behind and continuation bet on the turn a decent % of the time, I would do that with any A that isn't AK, and with AK some % of the time, plus with some of my air.

We don't have diamond draw, a diamond does nothing for us.

Pre fold is obviously fine

unkempt as in I'm wearing sweatpants and a t-shirt. Not like I smell like a hobo.

Everything seems good to me except I would give up on the hand if he calls your double barrel.

You're repping fairly thin on this board (AA, AK, AQ only) by the turn. We're just going to have so many better spots to double-barrel where we either (a) have some equity with our hand or (b) have a better board texture.

I'm not saying turn bet is awful by any stretch, maybe you fold out <AJ and some draws. Not sure AQ is folding here. Still, this is how you would play AK and AQ so I don't hate it (repping thin =/ repping nothing).

Still, I prefer double barrel bluff in other spots where we can credibly rep wider to fold out TPGK type hands. For example, If this same board was Q677hhxx, we'd be credibly repping AA KK QQ AQ KQs AhKh. V is way more likely to fold KQ on that flop than AQ on hero's A677 flop.

Prolly not betting the flop and def not betting the turn. Just because you have 2k doesn't mean you should start double barreling for no reason.

FPS

raise bigger pre, if you do decide to squeeze here, you should raise bigger to 100/125. 80 is an invitation for everyone to flat and see a flop. However a baby suited king is not the hand I would choose to do it with. I might do it with K2s if I knew the villain had a history of folding to 3bets, and if it was heads up.

Bet less otf. You're building the pot so high with your air and almost zero equity that you have no room for later bluffs.

As played, just check/fold after someone calls an Ace high board.

I agree pre is too small, but $125 is way too big, they can fold to that a lot and not be exploited at all, and I would not go so large with AA. Having it be heads up makes me much less likely to 3bet - if the original opener folds, the flatter will usually fold as well, plus that gives us an extra $25 in dead money. $80 would be fine if there wasn't a flatter in this hand, that is what makes me want to bump up my raise some.


I agree with your flop sizing argument as well. Turn I think I can bet a lot less as well, while still threatening his entire stack. The turn bet I'm most on the fence about, it comes down to whether he has AQ/AJs and folds it much.

you want them to call? Than just min-raise, they'll be sure to call. Do you realize you have absolute junk This is backwards, you SHOULD be 3betting light more when it's heads up. Not at all. It depends solely on who the other player is. If the original raiser folds, why do you think the caller always folds as well? There are sticky people who will flat looking to see a flop no matter who is in the hand.

90-100 pre if you think the timing is right. Or fold. Or if you hate their faces call and play a pot in position (but be prepared to make some moves if you <3 sooted kx in position like i do).

C-bet flop 125. Give up on turn.
You are guessing his range. You are guessing his fold% of that range. This is called clicking buttons.
If you have more information like prior hh or his adjustments to other players from previous games to make it not clicking buttons, then lets hear it.

Easy fold pre. Sqz should be rather linear range cos we must get fold from several opps=we avoid bluffing and our weakest 3b hands should have both blockers and some strength/playability. I would save polarised range for HU and even against one on these positions K2s is very loose.
Similar is flop, we have no chance to improve and two villains, easy x/f. Blocking several AK does not justify the overbluff.