Sunday afternoon at Aria. Game has been good and pretty loose.

Villain in this hand is a white guy in his late fifties. His VPIP/PFR is about 25/10 through 80 hands. Haven't observed him make any bluffs during the session. He starts with $750.

Hero is a white guy in his late twenties. Playing about 20/15 through 80 hands. I've generally been showing up with big hands when I've gone to showdown. I start with $1200.

On to the hand:

MP open limps, HJ limps, hero raises to $25 in CO with A 9, SB calls, villain calls in BB, two limpers call. $123 in pot after drop.

Flop comes 9 6 3. Checks to hero who bets $75. Villain calls, HJ calls. $347 in pot.

Turn brings 9 6 3 8. BB quickly bets out $150. HJ folds. Hero ???

Pretty sure by his quick reaction and the relatively large bet into two opponents (can't remember another time in the session where he bet $150 or more) that he has a flush. The fact that a relatively tight player called pre has me wondering which two clubs he might have. If he has J T then not only do I have two less outs, but I will probably have to call off a $500 river bet when the Q or 7 hits. If he has Q J then the same problem applies to a T river. What is a good way to apply RIO thinking to NFDs facing possible straight flush draws? I'm getting 3.3:1 immediate odds on my money, 6.6:1 implied, and am anywhere from 5.5:1 to 9:1 to hit a flush that doesn't produce a straight flush for villain (if he does have J T then I have a 19:1 chance of a disaster). Would it be too nitty to fold in this spot, or is that the right play given the circumstances?

How much variance would you like? Shoving turn might get him to fold any flush below Q-high. When he bets into two people and you shove when the flush hits looks awfully strong. Is he capable of folding a made flush or just a "herp-derp-got-a-flush-all-in" type player?

I see what you're saying, but I don't know if I can go so far as actually seeing him drop a Jack high flush. I think he thinks that if I actually had the Ace high flush that I'd call turn and raise river, or maybe min-raise turn, make smaller river shove, etc. I think he might think I make a similar play with the King high flush. So it might look to him as though I only start to make the "protect my flush" big raise with Q high flush. I think he would tend to get stubborn with a Jack high flush or even a Ten high flush when he only has another $500 left and the pot would be offering him better than 2:1 odds. If he had 7 6 then I might see him dropping even if he knows he does have up to two outs to the absolute nuts...but not even 100% sure of that.

Probably the best way to think about this hand is just pretend your implied odds don't exist. Since you don't know exactly what your odds are, but you know the pot isn't even laying the approximately 4 to 1 odds you need to draw to a flush, easy fold. As long as, as wj94 says, you are not sure you can fold V with a shove here.

You played with him for 3 - 3 1/2 hours and you completely discount that he might have a set or straight here? Also he is betting relatively small (in relation to the pot) but absolutely big for him or the game in general.

You also discount that he might be bluffing with a pair and flush draw hand of 76 with one club.

My point is that his range is much wider than made flushes. He may think that you are tight and you missed completely so he might think his weak hand or draw is good or you'll fold.

With that said if he is only betting the turn with flushes, sets and two pair, it's still a fold. If you include overpairs (Tens and Jacks) and flush draws it's close.

If you include top pair hands and all of his draws you're flipping but that's probably optimistic.

I probably fold.

Results:

I call the $150. $647 in pot headed to the river.

River brings the 9 6 3 8 A.

Villain bets $150 again. I tank for a bit with my two pair before folding. Villain shows me the J T and does make a comment about how he wouldn't know how he would react to a shove.

When I thought about it later, when I hold the A there are a lot of flush combos that also have a straight flush draw for villain (JTcc, QJcc, 76cc, etc). Since this creates a RIO possibility I think I should have at least discounted the money behind (looked at it as a wash perhaps) and focused strictly on immediate odds, which obviously did not warrant a call on the turn.

From the top of my head I can tell you that the best you can expect is being EVEN if you call. With one card to come there's no draw that has positive expectation if the other dude is betting the pot or even less than the pot. In this case you probably get to be even because the size of the pot already. But still not a big deal of advantage that will make you money in the long run. I don't think he will give you more action after the river card comes down and is a for your flush. So, you may not have implied odds even if you make it.

Think about this: On the turn with one card to come even if you got a straight-flush-draw with 15 outs and if the opponent bets the pot you getting an even proposition of 2:1

Draws are not something we look forward in NL. Actually, the NL game is a game of FLOPS. You either make it on the flop of you get behind.

V is never folding a flush

Completely missing the point itt