I posted earlier in this thread that smaller sizing leaves more options on the turn, while the larger sizing leaves H in an awkward spot on a lot of turns especially if more than one caller.

Wj94. Are you full time pro in Vegas?

BTW. I agree with you and Viral25. Both nice well thought out posts.

Nope, I just play for fun, keeps me busy.

There isn't a good argument to bet small. The people advocating a small bet are just playing their hand and not their range.

I think checking is better but we have to assume this is not a high frequency cbet situation either way. So in low frequency c-bet spots - we always size up. That's because our range is stronger and want to get value/make our bluffs more effective.

We only bet small in high frequency cbet situations. High frequency cbet spots = weaker range.

To the guys advocating a small cbet OTF - how do you play JJ here? Are you betting big? Good luck splitting your range OTF because there is 0% chance you will know your own range by the river.

Of course there is a good argument to bet small, which I already stated. H's specific hand is unlikely to improve. V's combined ranges are much more likely to improve, and we have no idea what cards they are improving on, so the turn is going to be harder to play when the pot is already large. Any A, Q, J, T, 9, 8, 7, or spade is a potentially bad turn card. That's a lot of cards. Now H is stuck checking back half the deck on the turn. Betting smaller allows H to continue betting those turns and keep his range wider. Let's go back down the rabbit hole again:

Example 1: H bets $60, two calls, turn is Qx. Well that's not good. Now we're stuck checking back turn and river and have capped ourselves at AK/AA.

Example 2: H bets $30, two calls, turn is Qx. Not so bad, can still bet $90-150 and get called by worse while keeping the nuts and all sets/2p in our range, so if anyone c/r turn we can just let it go. If anyone leads river after calling two bets they almost certainly have 2p minimum, so we can let it go. More often V's are going to continue checking to the PFR that is double barreling this board.

I prefer example 2. I'm playing JJ the same way because it allows me to triple barrel a lot more hands and be in control of the action instead of checking most turns and capping our range. In example 1 when H bets the turn, you can probably narrow his range to 2p+ and combo draws, which is easier to play against versus example 2.

Why would you ever bet middle set for a small sizing in a Multiway pot? You are giving Villain's direct odds to hit their draws against you. And your goal should be to get stacks in by the river.

You can't accomplish that with all these small bet sizings.

It's also fundamentally incorrect theoretically. If you are betting small in this situation there would no situations where you bet big.

Sometimes people spazz with a draw or Kx and put their entire stack in for you by c/r. When you bet big, they're less likely to do that. Live poker is great.

So your reasoning is you bet small because you are playing against fish? So it's an exploitative bet?

What about when you play good players?

I already explained my reasoning. I prefer to keep my range wide, especially in multi-way pots. Most people don't have a 3/4 pot flop, 3/4 pot turn bluffing/semi-bluffing range in a multi-way pot on this type of board, which means H's hand is all value and V's can fold worse hands. If we bet smaller on the flop and larger on the turn, we can apply more pressure with our weaker hands while still getting called when we have stronger ones.

If you are in V's spot and the PFR goes $60 flop $200 turn against 3 people, what hands do you think they're going to have? I highly doubt it includes anything worse than KQ in that range for the vast majority of players.

In a situation where we have the same flop but we hold JJ, V's are all way more likely to hold Kx, and they will think you are bluffing on a clean runout, so you can triple barrel away with larger sizings on later streets. Let's say the board runs clean and H goes $30 flop, $150 turn, $450 river, and all the draws bricked out. Are V's going to fold Kx now? Maybe, maybe not. But if we go $60/200 they are put to a bigger decision on the turn and may decide to fold the weaker portion of their range instead of stacking off. It's much harder to fold those marginal hands facing smaller sizing.

H is also going to face tougher decisions getting c/r when betting large on the flop. If H bets $60 and someone raises to $200-225, now you're playing for stacks and not feeling great about it unless V's are total idiots. There's just a lot more playability on later streets with the smaller sizing on the flop.

You bet 30 otf w JJ and AK on KJ8s so good players like Mikestarr can ckr your turn overbet w 77 because you never have anything.

lel

lol seems like a solid strategy.

So why wouldn't you just check instead of betting small. Do you have no XR range?

You keep going over these scenario's but I am talking about range construction. Betting small here is most likely the lowest EV play and it has serious implications for your whole cbetting range.

Betting small with middle set would never be a good play for obvious reasons.

Are you expecting the button to bet this flop for you?

This was exactly my thought on the topic - I liked the $60 bet because that's exactly what I'd bet with a set and KJ, and saw this as a bet less frequently, but bet bigger when you do.

WJ94 brings up a great point though, potentially half of the deck equates to bad turn cards, so it's a pretty shitty situation all around. I don't want to bet tiny with a set here, seems really bad.

Thinking this over, it's starting to make me lean towards not betting all the time with AK, but still including it at some frequency (maybe 50%?), and keeping the big bet size in order to not miss value with a set or KJ.

Yeah I think checking is slightly higher EV but betting big is fine too. Betting small is not fine.

You could just split your range by betting your AhKh and checking the other 2 combos if you wanted.

So how does position impact this decision?

Are we checking first to act more often? Are we always betting OTB? With only the BTN to act behind us, does it alter our analysis in any way here?

No my strategy is based upon my own ranges. I don't care what my opponents do.

Once I get a decent sample I might employ exploits. But it would never be as a default.

Just to clarify, you regularly play with 10+ regs that only 3bet AA and you don't think you play in soft games?

I’m on the same page as wj94 here.
It’s pretty disastrous to bet $60 here, see a bad turn card and then be in a spot where x/f is often our best play. I don’t care too much about range/bet sizing construction here because I don’t play regularly enough for it to matter and lol live players aren’t paying attention often enough for it to matter much anyway.
I will concede though, that my exact sizing in this exact situation would be $40-45.
In general though, I don’t think V’s are paying enough attention for our range construction/balance to be the primary factor of importance here.

Why is that disastrous? Each play has an EV attached to it. You don't bet small because of what might come on the turn. You take the highest EV line possible at all times.

Every street is independent of itself.

Well sure, disastrous is overstating it. I can afford to lose $60 and I can afford to lose 6K, but I’d obviously rather win $ than lose $ when playing this game. Feel free to pick a different adjective for bad for me.
I’m pretty sure this all runs a lot closer in EV than you’re thinking, especially if you think check/call is acceptable here (which I agree with).

so it sounds like you agree with mikestarr your ego just won't let you admit it

I like $60. Draw heavy board and all. I guess it has already been said.

There are many different ways for a game to be softer than normal and different ways for it to be tougher than normal.

If you happen to be at a table with 4-5 of these nits sitting at the same time, sure you will normally know where you're at in the hand, but you'll also never make any real money without coolering someone. Most of your profit will come from bluffs and then you lose most of it right back when you try to bluff them off of the AA that they flatted with preflop.

Or you raise and get called by one of these nits with a huge hand. Then LP 3 bets you, you 4 bet your AK or QQ and the nit in the middle has AA. Its a minefield. You're welcome to come on down and see how you do. S. Florida isn't going anywhere.