I thought this was interesting in terms of combinatorics. I'm including a little of my thoughts on the flop but withholding any thoughts on turn and river so as not to influence discussion.

This is a brand new table so there are no session dynamics. V is Asian girl. Youngish, I have played before with her and my read is she is that she can show aggression in what sometimes seems random spots.

Generally her range is strongish – doesn’t include a lot of junk. She definitely plays draws fast sometimes but overall not much history and I really don’t know how she views hero.

Hero, 40 something white guy just sat down in this new game and several players are talking about a big $2K 4 way all in preflop “gambol gambol” pot I was just involved in at a 1/3 table while waiting for this game to open. Not sure if this discussion impacts villain’s perception of Hero’s range or not.

Hero (1K) Opens $25 MP with AsQc
V (500) Calls in SB – heads up

Flop ($55) Kc 8c 2h

V checks Hero bets 40
V raises to 125

I think at least some significant amount of the time v actually 3b AK pf. She certainly has Kx broadways in her range but with the exception of AK I really don’t expect her to raise flop with random Kx hands. Sets are obv. possible 2p unlikely. I think club draws are a significant part of her flop raising range also.

Turn ($305) Kc 8c 2h 5d V now checks and Hero checks behind.

River 8d
V leads for $200.
Hero?

Without a specific good read on V....I'm folding in the flop. She can show up with mid pocket pair a lot of the time as well. Wait for a better spot to pick off.

Why did you check the turn? Did you really expect the hand to check down after you called the flop? Early in a session I just fold flop, but if your range is confident then I guess calling is ok. But I'm never calling this flop just to check back the turn. As played its close if she whiffed on a turn c/r or is bombing a missed draw. Spots like these are where I really try to use live tells to influence my decision. If she just aggresively shoved 200 out there then I lean towards call. If she calmly cut out 200 then probably fold.

Her river bet is a little more than I'd like. I can't fault bluff catching here but I probably fold. Her line is very consistent with an 8 as well as a busted draw.

Meh I lean towards folding flop until I get a better read on her c/r range. As played gotta bluff catch river the way the hand played out.

I considered betting the turn for value vs FDs. There are few 8x hands she is c/r with IMO since the 8 is a club.

Obv if she does decide to c/r the turn it's a disaster since we then must fold.

If we remove AK from her range (the K is a club so it's not t/p t/k with NFD) we are ahead of her likely draws. With one card to come why not keep the pot manageable and keep her bluffs in?

I thought of this but usually they are c/r flops that miss PFR range... Rarely K high ime.

If you're ahead of her likely draws why not make her pay? Also I don't think having to fold to a turn c/r is a disaster since you are probably drawing dead anyways. You lose the same as if you hero called the river. The thing is if she has a draw she has way more equity than she realizes because she probably has one or two live cards as well. She would be making a mistake to fold the turn but may fold. Keeping her bluffs in only makes sense if you are going to call her bluffs, which will be tough to do with A high.

I'm ok with the turn check as long as you don't fold this river.

id check flop but i think cbet is also fine, as played fold to c/r, as played i guess shrug call river. she doesnt rep much you said she shows aggression in random spots. she could actually be bluffing with better though (5xcc/A2cc)

If this is Harrah's Phila and it's who I think it is, call and expect a turbo-muck. V is never turning 66-TT into a bluff. Her range is polarized to missed FD and AK which pot controlled OTT.

I don't see how we can ever fold this river once we get there this way. If OP believes Kx is unlikely, there are just so few hands ahead of us that she takes this line with. If her flop c/r was for value, she's unlikely to check the turn given that there's obv a good chance Hero is checking behind. I guess it's possible she could've taken this line with SC/SGs that include an 8, but there are just way too many whiffed clubs in her range for us to fold.

I wouldn't mind a turn bet either. In addition to getting value from clubs (or getting Villain to fold that equity), we also get some folds from whatever random 8x and low/mid pp she might have.

Yeah there are definitely few value hands V has here on the river. It's possible that V could check a set on the turn tying to be tricky, but V does have a fair amount of flush draws here(Slightly less combos with H having the Q). If V is competent she might realize that turn is a bad card to barrel since Hero's range is mostly Kx in this spot and thus be more weighted toward busted FD's. Also, I can't imagine her playing Kx this way as those hands would mostly call flop. It would also be pretty unusual for V to try and turn a hand like 8x into a bluff but I guess that can't be ruled out since she is known to show random aggression. I think it's close, but I don't mind a call here. Of course, I probably fold the flop as well.

I think a turn bet is pretty useless since it folds out her air, and rarely gets a better hand to fold. I mean maybe she folds 8x but she might not even have that hand with her range. It also allows her to re-bluff us if she decided to shove with a FD.

On the flop I felt this v's range was sets and mostly nut flush draws and sometimes AK but at least some reasonable part of the time this v 3b AK. I don't think she 3b a dry Kx. Since I hold the Qc her likely NFDs are a AJ AT which I'm ahead of.

FWIW I think folding flop is perfectly fine here too. Also if the K was not a club and perhaps even if the Q in my hand was not a club I would have leaned toward a fold as I would be more inclined to include Kx cc in her flop raising range and even AQcc for a chop if we show down.

I felt fairly confident that she doesn't fire a 2nd barrel OTT all that often as a bluff and that she almost never checks her value range ott. Also being the first hand at a new table I don't mind in this spot appearing difficult to bluff. The last point being only a minor factor but when I add it all up I want to see and evaluate the turn.

When the turn bricks and she checks I think her range is heavily weighted to NFDs. And usually unpaired as I think she is calling with the stronger Ax hands preflop. I consider betting for value but decide with one card to come I may fold her air and sometimes her FDs or occasionally induce her to spaz shove and force me to actually fold the best hand. Lastly there is a good chance checking will induce a bluff OTR. Since the only Ax hands that paired up are A2 and A5 both less likely parts of This v's pf calling range I feel pretty comfortable checking to call non-club rivers. I am thinking I will have to raise or fold to a T or J river bet. And most likely fold. The case for betting to neutralize her equity/get value and fold her random pairs is a pretty strong one but I really feel she didn't check raise weak pairs here since my range should be K heavy.

Lastly pot control comes to mind since I am planing to bluff catch it will be admittedly much harder if this pot and the bets get bigger.

The 2 OTR is as safe a card as I can ask for.

I call her river bet and she shows AJcc.