I'm gonna start charging for lessons here

Seems like you played this hand fine. Because it's Seat 9, an unknown, who reraised, you probably actively don't want to flop top pair which means this hand is not really that profitable even multiway.

I look at it this way. If folding is a mistake, it's probably a small mistake. But if calling is a mistake, it's probably a big mistake (since you could commit yourself with a hand you don't really want to be all-in with). In a situation like that, you need to be very sure before you call.

Leak - you won't "FIT" often enough to make money calling $30 pre-flop. The Pre-flop raiser has 1/7 of his stack in already. How much of his range totally dominates you?

I think pre-flop is an easy call.

I like the way you're thinking about this in a way that goes against what seems "standard," but I think you're wrong for a few reasons.

First, and actually least important, 49:1 are the odds to hit *exactly* 2-pair... NOT 2-pair+.

You do get to flop other strong hands, you know.

The odds of flopping 2-pair or better or a very high equity hand are much better.

I found this through Google (and I should probably get Flopzilla):

Suited hand flopping 2 pair, trips, flush, full house, or quads is 22.3:1

That doesn't include straights.. adding in the odds of a 1-gapper flopping a straight, I think we get the odds to ~19:1.

And that ignores any sort of draws.

But whatever, like I said, that's less important, but yes, our odds to flop a very strong made hand are around 19:1. I don't know if the source I found is perfect, but that certainly sounds much more accurate than 49:1.

Second, you actually can't ignore the times you flop strong draws, and our inability to maneuver post-flop doesn't really detract from the value of strong draws.

When you flop a flush draw multi-way on a low SPR board, a few things happen. For one, we're going to have very strong equity 6-way... very possibly well more than anyone else since we're drawing to a very nutted hand. When we are in second or third place equity-wise to a flopped monster, we're still generally doing pretty damn well. And I don't think you can fear AhXh.

Of course when we flop a strong draw post-flop, we won't fold and nor will we have fold equity.. but that's fine. If when we flop a flush draw no one folds and everyone sticks their chips in the pot (not gonna happen, but you get the idea), we're always going to be getting outstanding odds to try and bink with our equity for the flush. It's probably an extraordinary profitable spot if no one folds.

Just some thoughts, not precise, but pre-flop is a definite call.

I have been folding these spots more the last 9 months or so and not really feeling too bad about it. Sure, you hit an occasional board but I don't think that you win enough chips in spots like this to make up for the cooler/domination type of spots you can end up in.

If you don't have a good/great fold button there is a huge difference between KJ and 78 as it's 'easy' to get away from 1-pair 8x hands and maybe not so easy to get away from 1-pair Kx hands.

I agree if you are in a 'rec' mood .. then gamble/play CARDS, not poker, in this spot PF, but make sure you can recognize the many different situations that will develop on the Flop that will require POKER skill to maneuver around. This comes down to table dynamic and Hero image ... that is poker!!

Poker grinders and math guys want to keep things simple, not have to deal with all the ranges and variables (V images) in these multi-way Bingo pots. But I strongly believe that you need to give a little to get a lot at the table and showing the table you are willing to mix it up a bit can't hurt. At least you 'might' get a big reward whereas buying the table a round has no chance for immediate return .. other than a waitress' potential phone/room number!! GL

Even at 20 to 1 it still looks -EV. Maybe you could show me alot of math that makes a thin value play, but come on....

have fun putting in 500 real dollars chasing like 18 sklansky bucks.

It totally blows my mind how many people are eager to call here, but are so reluctant to commit to a 1-pair hand with an SPR of 2. Please reconcile those two ideas?

Folding in this spot is ludicrous and is a very big mistake

I'm done tapping this fish tank. I need more people to think like this ^^^^

Well, looking at only the very strong made hands, I brought you down from 49:1 to 19:1, but I see you're still not happy with that haha.

OK, let's even ignore the made monsters. Let's just consider flush draws.

We have an 8:1 chance of flopping a flush draw.

So we are getting BETTER THAN DIRECT odds to flop a flush draw.

So what, you say - but that's just a draw?!

Wrong.

With an SPR of 1, nearly any flush draw will be profitable because there won't be any betting after the flop - any flop bet is probably a pot-sized shove. So say you shove post-flop and get 3 callers. That means we're effectively getting 4:1 (1 pot + 3 PSB calls) to hit our flush. We would almost certainly be getting the correct odds to hit our flush even if one of those villains has a set.

So dude... it's probably profitable based on direct odds alone JUST to chase a flush draw.

But we ALSO get to make strong hands 19:1 (not 49:1).

Same thing as yesterday. You can't evaluate the profitability of each individual street, see that they are all profitable, and thus say the entire line is profitable. You're 8 to 1 to hit a flush draw, and you're 40% to make the flush after the flop. So 40% of 11% means that we're putting 30 preflop on a 25 to 1 shot to get it in on a draw and win. So we need effective stacks to be near 750 for this to be a profitable line. Even if you play with the numbers a bit, players aren't deep enough for this play.

And the 19:1 to make other strong hands is misleading as our hand can be easily dominated. A KK8 flop doesn't look so good if we get raised all-in by the pre-flop raiser does it?

Welcome to Reverse Implied Odds City
Population: Everyone who calls with this hand

If you honestly think calling PF getting 20-1 odds with KJs is -EV, you really ought to take a hard look at your model. What players are getting all that money in the pot?

It's a 20-1 draw, we're not "getting 20-1 odds"

We're getting 8 to 1 on a 20 to 1 shot

20 is more than 8

Fold

idontworkhere, yesterday you were suggesting we should limp pre with kings in the BB after 5 limpers. Everyone has misunderstandings (leaks) in this game, but we are all here to learn to play optimal poker.

If you choose to fold this hand pre, you can fold it. Just like the OP did and regretted it. But when I am calling, it's not to go broke with top pair in a huge multiway pot.

Ah, my bad. Didn't follow what you're saying

Now I'm curious, so I'm going to run through a little more analysis on this.

If we call, pot is $270. Suppose we flop a flush draw. Let's assume further that if we get it in on the flop, we AVERAGE 2 calls. (Sometimes 1 call, sometimes 2 calls, sometimes 3 calls. Assuming 3 calls all the time I think is too optimistic.) And the average stack is about $300 (they all already called off $45), so let's make a rough assumption that we will get, on average, 870:300 on our money when we flop a flush draw.

Flush draw will come in let's say 36% of the time. So 36% of the time we win 870, and 64% of the time we lose 300. Under these assumptions, our average EV flopping a flush draw is

(.36)(870) - (.64)(300) = 313.2 - 192 = 121.2

The problem is that you only flop a flush draw about 14.6% (I think) of the time (it is better than 8:1). Even rounding up to 15%, the profitability under these assumptions of chasing the flush is (.15)(121.2) = 18.18.

So is it profitable? In one sense, yes. But it's less than the $30 we're being asked to call preflop, so it is not worth it just for that.

I do think it is very close though, if you want to put our odds of flopping a big made hand at 5% and add that to the profitability of the preflop call.

Then you're calling to leak $30. No other explanation for it.

And that hand was a perfect spot to limp KK pre.

Dude...wake up. Most players are bad. If you play like most players, you're bad too. I'm happy to be in the minority on these issues. It usually means I'm onto something good.

FWIW, my implied odds rules of thumb are borrowed from Bart Hanson

10x set mining
20x suited connectors
30x suited 1-gappers

So by that general guide, I would need stacks of 900 if I wanted to call 30 pre-flop.

unless he's changed it recently, i believe Bart uses 15x for set mining, but i havent listened to his newer stuff, so he could be at 10x again now

yeah, that's probably good. . I admit most of the stuff I've heard from him is older, so if he's been changing his mind, I don't know about it. He plays higher where villains are tighter about stacking off though, so 10x probably isn't too bad. It's pretty rare I get set odds that tight though, with stacks >100BB, any normal pre-flop raise can be called

Sometimes you'll flop a flush too.

Oh yes, I know. I was only analyzing Willy's comment that calling is +EV solely based on what happens when we flop a flush draw. I think it's clear that that's not true, and that if this call is profitable, you need the profit from flopping a big hand to show it.

(By the way, we flop a flush about 1% of the time, so using that 1% figure, and using the same assumptions I was using above, and assuming that everyone is drawing dead when we make the flush--which we know is not true--we still only add 8.70 in postflop EV. That still doesn't get us to $30, which is the price of the preflop call. We need more than flushes and flush draws to make this call worthwhile--or we need to make more generous assumptions than I've been making, but I think my assumptions are pretty optimistic! And as I said in my first post, folding might be a mistake, but if it is it's a small one. At this point I think it is safe to say there's no way anyone's going to convince me folding is a big mistake.)

But that's what a leak is. And a player who makes this mistake is likely making many others. Start adding up all these leaks and you have a player who is bleeding chips. That leads to him having a smaller stack when he does have a good hand, which costs him even more later in the session

While this may only be a small mistake. Not recognizing it is a HUGE mistake

Thanks for the additional analysis, Vernon. This is basically why I like the call when we're closing the action. Relative position adds value, last to act preflop reduces risk. If I'm second to act after the 3-bet, I fold at most tables.

I'm late to the party but I think calling the initial raise is a mistake but AP, I would call the second raise based on us having a good multiway hand, closing the preflop action, and we have relative position on 3-bettor post flop.

However, we called an UTG raise w an often dominated hand from UTG+1 with lots of action still to come behind us. IMO, that is a leak and a mistake. That being said, once the action unfolds as it did, I'd call the 3-bets based on the reasons above.

Vernon I think your math may be wrong.

I think you need to include our bet and make it (.36)(1,170).

For example, imagine it was 50/50 we hit a flush.

Your math would suggest we win

(.50)(870) - (.50)(300) = 435 - 150 = 285.

But I think we actually win

(.50)(1170) - (.50)(300) = 585 - 150 = 435

435 should be correct (it is half of 870, which is indeed the pot ignoring our bet).

Do you agree we need to include our bet in the math?

If we use that math and the rest of your figures

(.36)(1170) - (.64)(300) = 585 - 150 = 421.2 - 192 = 229.2.

Then take your .15, and you get .15*229.2 = 34.38.

34.38 > 30.