I previously had a leak of slowplaying / sizing bets too small when I had a strong hand, out of fear that I would push my opponent out of the pot. This is an attempt to correct that.

Hero is a regular at the casino and has a tight, winning image so far this session.

Villain is an old white male, a regular, and dealer at the other casino in town. Yet he is awful at poker, a known fish in the game. Huge calling station and will stack off with TPTK. Earlier he called down two streets with a naked gutshot, and raised on the river when he hit ("$100 on top"). He usually plays hands passively, and frankly I'm not sure exactly what his preflop raising range is, but he doesn't raise very often.

We are $500 effective.

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Preflop: Couple limps to Villain who makes it $20. I am directly to his left and flatcall with red 66. We go 5-handed to the flop.

Flop: T86r (~$95)

V bets $45, I make it $120, everyone folds and V calls.

Turn: Ad completes rainbow (~$335)

V checks. I tank for a little bit, wondering if the Ace will scare him too much to call. Ultimately I bet $225 to target his pair+gutshot hands.

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What do you think about this line, and the bet sizing? Did I play it too fast?

Thanks

I really like your line. Both the flopraise and your sizing.

5 ways its a good chance someone has flopped a two pair kind of hand with like 10-8 or 8-6, and you are looking to get max value from those hands by raising on the flop. Also strong tens will have difficult folding, as well as various straightdraws you can get value from.

You also describe villain as a huge station, wich i mean is another huge argument for raising right here on the flop and start building a pot.

Well played OP.

I don't love the sizing on the turn with these stack sizes. You only have $360 effective on the turn and you bet $225 leaving $135 behind??

With these stacks you can never fold so I'm just trying to get all $360 in between turn and river. I'd bet turn like $160-$180 then putting the rest in on the river. Make it really hard for V to ever fold.

I like it up until the turn. Better to bet too big with a set than too small.

The thing that's important to note is that this turn card is bad for us. I've played against the type of villain you've described, and the bulk of his range here is AA-JJ which either improved (unlikely) or is now scared.

At this point - on the turn - I'm targeting KK-JJ and mostly willing to be coolered by AA, unless he check shoves the turn and has only AA there. I'd bet the turn $120. The "same bet" factor may make him think we are scared of the A as well and that we still just have a ten.

Then all-in on the river. Let him make the decision to fold JJ then, when he's more emotionally invested in the big pot that he's put a lot of money in.

I think the flop raise is too small. There are plenty of potential straight/pair+gutshot draws that you want to deny implied odds to. But the main reason is that the range of made hands that will call a raise is pretty inelastic. If the original raiser has an over pair (or 99) or one of the other players has two pair they will probably call any amount. So, you might as well get some value. I would make it 150-200. Maybe even 225 - that would set up an easy turn shove.

As played I'm torn between the same bet idea and checking behind. I'd even consider a really small bet, like 60 or something. Overall betting 120 is probably best so you can set up a river shove that's not an overbet and give him a chance to be suspicious of a busted J9 and stack off.

Betting more than half the remaining effective stack is way too much given the A is a bad scare card to his range.

Depending on V but good sizing imho. Sucks if he flopped it but can't have it both ways.

GL.

x1000

Some more rangey stuff:
ignoring the 3 combos of AA for moment because we're never folding vs this villain -

I'd still give a stationy player a small scoop of AK combos he cant get away from (maybe weight it to only 2 or 3 of the suited ones say) still vs maybe 4 QJs for OESD+bdfd and his JJ-KK range and you can see how bad that A is for our action. Those QJ hands however are really super dependent on his open raise range. So even with the optimistic AK combos, the bulk of what he's holding is afraid of the A.

If he's opening a little wider & he's the optimistic type vs your raise on a wet board like that, we can start adding some AQ but the truth is - he really doesnt have a lot of A's here and that card should slow him down.

So many of the other combos (T8, AT, etc) he would be limp/calling if his raise from EP range is small.

So you can really see he doesnt have a lot of Ax happening.

So this turn bet size revolves around your assessment of his opening range and then more specifically - what part of it continues vs your flop raise and just remember that he most likely has a limp/call range which will limit the bizarre hands (97, T8 etc) from his raising range.

He's going to make the river easy for you to play as well.

Grunch

V is passive and opens after limpers. He then calls a raise (sizing is fine) on a T86r board. He can only (fine, most likely) have an overpair here.

Since he probably folds JJ-KK OTT against your uncapped range, I probably check behind and go for value on the river looking like a missed semibluff.

Given his passive tendency pre flop his range here has to be JJ+/AK, maybe some AQ, maybe some smaller pocket pairs.

Always raising this flop 5 handed. Had we gotten a second caller we set ourselves up for an easy shove OTT. WP

Once we've isolated V, I think we can slow down a bit to target the lower end of his range. The Ace OTT kind of kills our action. If he has JJ-KK he might be able to find a fold. He's definitely stacking off if he got sticky with AK or fell into a set. I think I might go 175 OTT and shove all rivers.

On the other hand you mention him being a bit of a calling station with gutshot draws so trying to get as much value now isn't a bad play. The question is, what hand would he play this way that gives him a gutshot draw? The only hand that might make sense is 99 I think and that's a very small part of his range given preflop action.

You have $360 behind after the flop...I probably bet smaller on the turn. I don't think TP and GS combos make up much of his range so I am trying to get value out of overpairs to the flop. If he somehow has AK or AT it's getting in regardless of what you bet.

Bet 140-150 on turn and shove all rivers.

Commentary on this particular HH and villain's range has been good so far. Let me take a second to address your larger topic of what speed we should play nutted hands:

In these spots, I think it's helpful to think of what hands you're trying to stackoff and what the best way to do that is given stack sizes, how far you are from the nuts, how vulnerable your hand is to turn and river cards (or how easily scared your target stacking hands will be on certain turn and river cards), and of course of course of course, what your opponents' tendencies are.

When we hold something like the 4th nuts (like bottom set, top two, medium flush, straight on a paired board, etc), we have to figure out how to stackoff great-but-far-from-the-nuts hands like bottom two, overpairs and TPTK (or bluffs) for us to be in great shape agains their stackoff range. Against certain players, this is happening regardless of how the betting goes, so we're best off getting the money in fast before the board gets ugly; against certain other players, we have to do a whole lot of betting and raising because they're stations and won't bet themselves, but can't find it in themselves to fold a hand that beats TPGK; against other players, they're going to do all the betting and raising themselves because they pray to the great god of Gap Concept; against OMCs, it's unreasonable to wide their stacking ranges at all, so you just have to massage money in.

The problem I see with people slowplaying a nutted but non-nut hand is that while it might string along second pair and crap for a bet or two, it doesn't maximize the amount of times that we get the entirety of stacks in while we're good. As I tried to summarize above, this doesn't mean the best line is always to bet and raise every chance you get, but it does shift your focus away from, "But I want to bet so small that no one ever folds any piece of the board," and toward, "I beat AA; how might I **** that hand in the ass as hard as possible?"

When you only have 1 or 2 bets left to get in, how you get it in is kind of trivial so long as none of the streets go check, check. If you have 4 bets left, you have to figure out how to get a raise in somewhere without sounding the alarms. If you have 3 bets left and 3 betting rounds, then it'd be helpful for you to get the money in while there are still cards left to come so villain can put you on draws/chase draws, but it might also behoove you to rep a bluff by just bet -> barrelling, etc.

When we have the stone-cold nuts, then we're going to win money regardless of how we get stacks in. The second and probably even third and fourth nuts are going to shovel money in regardless of how we play the hand (unless the board gets scary). So if our hand is vulnerable, at least some of our focus is going to be on making sure that much of the money goes in while we still have the nuts. If our hand is the immortal nuts, then we can get into those spots where we can try to induce random crap to spazz and try to string along second pair for as much as they're will to pay, etc, because again, against the 2nd nuts, it's irrelevant what we do; we're getting their stack regardless.

With very strong, but not nutted hands (bottom two, TPTK, overpairs, etc [in spots other than BU vs Blind against a TAG reg or 4-handed or whatever]), then we're probably rarely thrilled when stacks go in, so we're just trying to maximize against draws and TPGK and such. This doesn't *always* mean b/f / b/f / b/f against all opponents on all boards, but we can kinda say that's the standard from whence everything else is just deviation. A lot of people check the flop with Overpairs to underrep their hands, and then when they get raised on the turn they're like, "Are we ever good here?" It's like, well, if you don't feel good in the face of two bets on the turn, then maybe we shoulda done a bet per street.

I think this is maybe an okay, decent, kinda passable 101 on how fast to play nutted hands.

Grunching ...

Seems like an over pair with the flop call. Ahead of JJ+, losing to TT.

I'd raise more otf to set-up a <PSB ott. With the Ace hitting, we are coolered or not getting more by shoving. Our stack is awkward so I'd step into FPS and check back, shoving most rivers. Perhaps we'll get a call, thinking his KK might be good.

Thanks for all the advice guys. I debated heavily between checking the turn/betting small, versus betting big.

In my mind it all boiled down to whether he had 9T / 99 / AT, versus JJ+.

In hindsight I do think his range was weighted more towards big pocket pairs, and I could have got more value by betting smaller or even checking back.

Villain folded and did not show.

Id make flop 155 and shove all turns.

Flop sizing is fine though I may raise smaller just to keep him in. Turn sizing is horrible. You're basically forcing him to fold all pair+gut hands. Bet like $120 to $150 max. Pair+gut shot only has 4 outs on you!!!! And huge reverse implied odds if they hit two pairs or trips!!! Heck if he doesn't bluff or value bet thin you can even fold river if straight gets there

Get villains a chance to make a mistake by betting small to keep worse in. Don't bet big and allow him to play close to perfect and worse all one pair+gut shots. Heck he might even fold a weak two pairs as AT just got there

Assuming since he's a passive donk that when he raises pre its a premium. The only problem with your line is on the turn his range is JJ-AA a bunch and he's prob not gonna want to call a huge bet with KK on that turn. So when you bomb the turn you get stacked by AA and JJ-KK don't stack off prob. I might check the turn and value bet river to compensate for this problem.

Imho, there might be a bit results oriented thinking with this hand vs optimal line in general. Also leak might be surfacing. Btw I have a similar leak.

Q. If you had checked the turn, or bet small (how much would you bet?), and got called, what would be the plan OTR? What cards do you think he would call with OTR? How much? I mean it could have gone ch/ch OTT, river is a brick for him, he checks you bet he folds. Then the question is why didnt i charge him for his draw OTT.

IMHO, bet/bet/bet is an excellent line if you are in a spot do it in (this certainly is). The more often you can do it in a session the better long term, especially if playing regs and you dont show your hands. They ll start to get annoyed and start leveling themselves calling lighter and lighter.

GL. (Just make sure you've got it )

At first I was going to suggest a smaller turn bet (a bit less than $200), but the above is actually a great use of "same bet."