Reads on Villain: Very little history. Played one previous session, only about 20 hands. However, when villain was approaching table, there was much grumbling from teh regulars. Apparently he's very aggressive, and won over $2K the previous night. But that night I didn't see anything special.

Fast forward to tonight: I haven't seen anything except a solid TAG who isn't afraid to put money in the pot. He sticks out like a sore thumb, not just for his poker style, but he's in the Northeast wearing a ten gallon hat saying stuff like "thank ye kindly". He has shown that he will raise a huge range from position, and c-bet around 90%. Very rarely double barrells though. He hasn't slowplayed anything either. He's having an ok night but has recently been caught bluffing by some real station-y folks, or caught taking a stab with a draw that busted. Overall a solid TAG who could hold his own and do well at many tougher games I've played in.

Hero has been playing tight (card dead), but very aggressive when active. Not showing down hands. Chipped up to about $450 and villain covers.

Background on Games: No Limit cash games became legal about 7 weeks ago. Everyone here blows. Try to imagine a charity casino in 2005. You get the picture. Up until now games were capped at 2/4 limit, so someone winning $2k is unthinkable to these people. Villain is there for the same reason I am.

Hero is directly to V's left.

Hand 1:

Hero 65 raises to $12 after V limps. Only V calls.

Flop ($25ish) 623 V checks quickly - Hero bets $16 - V calls
Turn ($57) 623J V checks quickly - Hero bets $35 - V thinks for two seconds "what is that? 35?" and puts the chips in the pot.
River 623J3 V checks quickly

Hero???

Hand 2 - About an orbit later

One limper - Villain raises on the button to $13. All of his open raises were $13, which is annoying cause at this loose passive donkfest, the dealer has to make change for like six people on every hand.

Hero calls from SB with 88, limper calls

Flop ($35ish) 554 Hero checks, MP checks, V bets $30. Hero calls, MP folds
Turn ($95) 5543 Hero bets $50, V calls
River ($195) 5543Q villain checks

Hero?

Hand 1 id bet 1/3 pot to make him fold his medium pair. Could see what he has and check behind too.

Hand 2 hes OTB but he checked before hero? If he checked out of turn if that's a thing I'd check as well

Thin indeed. These are great thinking hands. There is you and V and a table full of weak players waiting to be parted from their chips.

My thought for the first hand is V knows why you both are sitting at the table, and is okay with a river check. No harm, no foul. I would throw out something for a bet, maybe $15 to $20. If V folds you know he prefers not to splash chips around with you; both of you having so many weak players to pray on.

Second hand maybe the same, maybe not. V is either happy with a check, or he wants you to make a bad bet. V has either purged all thoughts of implicit collusion with you, or V knows he is beat.

I would check down second hand as you are really thin and in the dark. If you bet out anything over half the pot and he raises, what's next? If you bet out over half the pot, and he folds, you would have won as much with a check.

Great post, though I do not enjoy these situations myself.

Hand 1: If I bet river it's not for value. Ima turn my hand into a bluff on the 4-flush board. He'll fold a lot of baby flushes.

Hand 2: What that we beat calls a bet? What that beats us folds? We have SDV, let's realize it.

Nick is correct about the order of hand 2. Hero acts first. Sorry, I wrote this pretty late last night.

The title is a little vague here, thin value, or thin chance of a successful bluff is kind of open to interpretation.

Hand 1, is a bluff for sure if I bet the river. How much? If he's folding, he's probably folding for two cents. How much to not spew, but not get a curiosity call? $35 again?

Hand 2, I don't think he would get this trappy with a 5, though A5, 54, 65, are all in his pre-flop raising range. However, I would have expected a raise before now, certainly on the turn when the board got scarier.

I'm not saying villain is a genius or anything, but I think he would know that the Qd is a magnificient card to bluff at. And I've seen him make bluff-stabs like that before, but in those situations he's been called down. He doesn't know me from anyone else in the room, and doesn't necessarily know that I'm smarter than the other fish in this pond.

On one hand, V is unlikely to bluff given table history as he wouldn't get credit for a flush from teh calling stations. They'd never ever fold a 5. He knows that by trying similiar plays on other people earlier in the night. On the other hand, I have been playing pretty tight, and if I check the river on an obvious scare card, I'm not sure I'd be able to get to showdown.

Feels like a bet/fold to me, but for those who disagree, are you check/calling or check/folding?

Nobody is folding a flush in hand 1 give the circumstances. And in hand 2, you decided to take over on the turn, so you can't rep the flush on the river. Nothing that is beating you is folding to a bet.

Stop trying to make people fold their hands at 1/2 in NH.

This, all of it.

Hand 1: How would you handle a guy who plays passive on all three streets, on an extremely scary board, when for hours now his bread and butter play is bet/fold with even marginal equity?

Hand 2: So are you check/calling, or check/folding? No interest in setting our own price for showdown on a river card that villain might love to bluff?

Hand 2 it's def. a good flop to c-bet for him, but do you have any sizing tells from him? Did he always c-bet the pot? Did he slow down when multi-way action?

AP hand 2 I would just check/fold. I hate betting river to bluff this guy, I don't think he's simply floating with Ax type of hand (and if he is he's checking back river thinking A high is good), I'd just wait for a better spot to get value from this calling station which seems it's how he's adjusting to you.

Hand 1 you're gonna have to bomb it if you want him to fold the Ks or Qs. $35 ain't gonna cut it. You will need to overbet the pot at least.

Hand 2 check/fold. Your line is unorthodox, what's your reasoning for the x/c donk line?

Hand 1, I'm really not expecting a spade to fold. I'm expecting a Jack, and pocket pairs above 6's to fold. I'm also expecting pocket 5's or 4's with a nagging spade to dump their hands too.

Results



Hand 2

On the flop I really felt like raising, but felt it would be spewy as I'd probably get called by pairs bigger than mine. I figured a stop & go would be cheaper then raising the flop. If I had raised teh flop and got called, I'd either have to commit on the turn, or let him draw for free in a bloated pot. I didn't have a definitive list of cards in mind, but I had planned to bet half pot on most non-diamond turns.

Doing this forces villain to pay for both streets. overall it's a little less money (probably would have raised the flop to $100), but it allows me to extract value while gathering information over two streets without going broke with a medium pair. Also, something like the J on the turn would be an easy card to represent with a turn lead. That would probably fold out all the hands with RIO like KQ. Maybe even A4, and maybe even 99

results

I don't play either hand from the beginning the way you did. I'm folding 65s pf and 3betting 88 to a button raise with someone who is raising somewhat light. As Chris Ferguson said years ago before FTP, your job isn't trying to make difficult decisions. Your job is to force other people to make difficult decisions.

This is too thin

I could not have put it better, the first hand is a clear case of give up and almost always beat or turn your hand into a bluff, I'd go about 1/3 pot as well.

Second hand has way too much show down value to bother betting. Only better are calling and worse folding.

I flat out don't believe you

Amazing. They say he won ~ $2k the night before, and now turns up playing like a spew monkey at your table. I hope the next time I go to play I see and hear an overly hokey cowboy in an over sized hat at the table.

Congrats! I hope the rest of your night was as profitable.

And with the last three posts, TTHRIC.

Locked.