2/5

Hero (button)-1200ish- Hero is very aggro, even for this game, a bit laggy (will open probably 35% of hands OTB), this session has gone to showdown when Hero raised 56s from the button, got 2 callers, Cbet (1/2 pot) A34cc flop, one caller, bet 7c turn (1/2 pot), and potted the 5s river. MHIG (player mucked at SD). Only hand of note (Hero has not been here long). Was V paying attention? I dunno.

V (MP)-1000ish-V is a fairly normal player for this game. He is aggro, but the game is aggro. Calls too wide preflop and floats Cbets a lot (whole table does this). Gets serious OTT.

V limps in MP, Hero raises QQ $40 OTB. Blinds fold and V calls.

FLOP ($81)- AJ6
V checks, H bets $60, V calls.

TURN ($201)- (AJ6) A
V checks, Hero?

Okay, this is where my question comes in. Do we make more money here by checking and allowing V to bet at the river? Or should we bet again in the 100-120 range? Hero is reasonably certain that he is ahead here, and I'm not worried about the times I am behind.

V likely caught a piece of this flop, either the J or the 6 (less likely the A, the Vs I play against love to do a small reraise with TP to "see where they are at" against me. One benefit of playing so aggressive). 2 pair that just boated is certainly possible, as well as 2 pair that just got counterfeited (I would weight the counterfeited 2 pair more heavily, see above). Despite the fact that I will raise preflop as weak as 56s, my range contains more As than his, however, he may feel (as I do) that the second A OTB makes it less likely that I hold one.

I am not particularly worried about the club draw, as I think he would likely have floated flop with AX mostly. So I feel that the draw cards (the Ts and s) are "good" for me, rather than action killers.

I feel like QQ on this board is at max a two streets of value hand. What do you think?

If your read of V is correct, and his image of you is the same, and he has a tendency to reveal his hand strength OTT, then you should bet the turn.

Bet $125-$150.

Checking here means you should get called by lots of J's on a blank river. Much harder for that hand to call OTT because a turn bet is leveraged. Add the times where V donks a river with hands we beat, and I like checking.

Preflop: If you can get away with raising this large you might as well do it.

Flop: There are a number of reasobable lines you can take at this point, but your best option is to check behind with the intention of calling at least one bet if V fires on the turn. This is a WAWB spot where an aggro opponent could potentially blow you off the best hand if you start building up a big pot now, so it's better to keep the pot small.

Turn: As played, check with the intention of calling a river bet or value betting the river if he checks again. A worse hand is more likely to call you on the river after you show weakness than on the turn, and checking now causes you to lose less when V has you beat.

Just my opinion..

Villain may find it hard to call a leveraged turn bet. I don't think we can get three streets of value from worse. I think checking the turn increases the chances V will bet the river or call a value bet. Also, a turn c/r may force you to fold the best hand if villain is capable of a bluff. You have good SDV. Easy check back, imo.

I think betting or checking is fine here. Imo I would rather check here and bet the river or just call the river. That's more likely to be called by Jx than the turn bet, since villains aren't thinking "omgosh the A means it's harder for him to have an A", they're thinking "well I guess I can't draw out on an A anymore."

If this villain is that bad though I wouldn't fault the bet or check.

If you are ahead, I doubt V calls on the turn, but he might fire on the river or call a bet, so I like a check back on the turn. I don't think you are getting three streets here, and I think the flop and river are your money streets.

Straightforward check behind and bet river or call the river bet.

I agree that at this point, unless V is a total maniac, you're not going to get a bet called unless you're destroyed. If he is a total maniac he might raise you with a pair of JJ. The safest way seems to be the consensus here, check turn, call most reasonable river bets.

Is our V capable of a C/R bluff, or an open river bluff?

If so, we probably need to check the turn and call/bet the river.

IF, however, our V is INCAPABLE of a bluff, there is nothing wrong with going for three streets of value against KJ, QJ, TJ. If the price is right, he might just decided to call you down with worse a fair amount of time.

Also, if incapable of bluff, it is a very easy fold for us if he check raises or bets out the river.

All Vs in this game can bluff, this one is no exception. He is also capable of value betting moderately thinly (won't automatically check a J OTR, but he might).

Not picking on you Hardball, but you seem to be most in favor of a bet. What part of his range are you targeting here? Js? Do we really think a J calls OTT (even in this game Vs "put you on AK" with a preflop raise, although I am a bit known for raising "all sorts of crap", when the money goes in the Vs revert to thinking it's AK)? What about mid pocket pairs (I think they make up a fair portion of his range), will they call a turn bet? Do we think a check is more suspicious given our hyper aggro image? I am capable of checking hands down if I feel I am being trapped or that I cannot get value from worse.

You mention V's tendency to reveal his hand strength. Are we bet/folding this turn? What is our plan if he calls? Are we checking back the river? Or do you think we can get 3 streets of value?

This is mostly where my thinking is at.

I am not looking for a "safe" route, however, if I check back this turn it is mostly to induce a bet or call OTR. I think I have most of his range crushed here, and most of it does not lead huge OTR.

Yeah, just the jacks. Maybe I could see him calling with tens, but not 99. If he check-calls the turn he likely has the jack and will likely call a river bet.

I think it comes down to what this villain's river tendencies are and whether or not he will bluff the river on this board texture and what he thinks your range is.
Villain prolly might be reluctant to bluff OTR in this spot given the board and how you have more Ax and big pairs/sets in your range.

Either way whether or not you bet turn or river you are getting value from Jx REGARDLESS (unless he tends to fold mipairs in this spot OTT).

I think if you want to a choose a easier line go with bet, bet, x rather then bet, x, bet. Basically betting the turn for protection and value + makes rivers easier to play. Given your description he's not the villain that will spazz out OTT with x-raises w/other parts of his range so i think it's a viable line.

OK, this may be trivial, but I will continue action. Ultimately hero feels that Js are too small a portion of V's range to get value from here OTT.

V limps in MP, Hero raises QQ $40 OTB. Blinds fold and V calls.

FLOP ($81)- AJ6
V checks, H bets $60, V calls.

TURN ($201)- (AJ6) A
V checks, Hero checks

RIVER ($201)- (AJ6A) 7
V bets 200, Hero?

yes checking turn is fantastic.

River i'd fold.

Have you ever seen him bluff a pot sized bet on this river where your range is capped?

IF not i'm folding. He shouldn't be betting this big with a jack - he should be check calling. Your range is also capped to 2 pair - if he is smart he knows this but he shouldn't be bluffing huge into you because if you are a fish you will call and he has to know you are going to fold 100% of your capped range which a lot of people are not capable of.

But that is just me reading this on a forum. In game it is a lot easier to figure out if he is bluffing if you are good at reading live tells. I've made calls like this with hands as weak as 22 but based on what you just wrote this is a fold.

Just to be clear, I do not consider a pot sized bet huge, nor is it considered so in this game.

Why is my range capped here?

bet turn and check behind river

as played i think it's a call on the river. does he really bet this big with Ax? that being said he doesn't have many real bluffs here

Hmmmm? I feel he can bluff anything he called flop with. Am I missing something?

he doesn't have any floats that call flop besides like kq which you block, unless he's floating nothing

Any J, mid PP, honestly probably any 6, given my image.

is he really going to turn any of those into bluffs on the river though? he might bet something like JK for what he thinks is value

Ah, gotcha. I'm not sure. I do think he might bet some of these for value, though.

Turn check is good. River bet is pretty strange. Probably takes Js and 6s out of his range. So it comes down to how often you think V is floating flop with gutshot type hands like K10 or KQ. If you think he floats the flop a ton with air, which you imply in the original post, I'm never folding here. But in order to do so, I'd need to see at least two specific hands previously where the V floated a C bet with a gutshot or air hand. Readless this is a fold since he obviously can have a ton of aces as well as all sets.

I'd call at 2/5 and fold at 1/2. Your line so far is actually pretty weak. You raised on the button where you raise 35% of the time. Villain may limp/call light. I think he is less likely to float oop, but maybe since you've been so aggressive on the button. Villain might call with a gutshot since you're deepstacked and he has the IO to hit. You then check the turn when Ax would surely bet with a flush draw on the board. He very well could think you raised with a weak hand like QTo, took a stab at it on the flop, and gave up. I think villain makes a very good bet. I think he gets a lot of folds from non-Ax hands. The 3-flush increases his FE even more.

You only need to be right 33% of the time to make calling profitable. 66 and some Ax make sense. Lets say he has six or seven AJ/AT/A9s type hands. Maybe a couple miracle backdoor flushes like JTcc. I think he has about 12 combos that beat you. He needs four combos of Jx, pp like 99, missed gutshots, or air to make calling correct. I call.