Hero (BTN) $1200 - I have 3-bet this table relentlessly and come back from stuck $400 to up a few hundred. Definitely playing aggressive. Main villain (UTG+2) would not know this. V1 (UTG+2) covers - just sat down less than an orbit ago. 3-bet once and showed down AA. V2 (CO) covers - importantly, I have a lot of history with this villain. I've seen him try to steal pots multiway with complete air. BB seems like a thinking player and should know this. UTG+2 would not know this. V3 (BB) $800
UTG limps, UTG+2 opens to $25, standard sizing. CO calls, I call from button, UTG calls, BB calls.
Hero has 88, no flush blocker
Flop ($125): JJ4 with flush draw.
BB and UTG have shown a willingness to donk favorable flops with an extremely value-heavy range. Their checks signify a lot of weakness to me.
UTG+2 checks. No read here.
CO bets $75. This is where I think I make my only mistake this hand and I call. Despite my read, with so many people left behind, I probably should have folded.
I call (BTN), BB calls, UTG+2 calls.
Turn ($425): 8x, does not bring in flush.
UTG+2 leads for $150, CO snap-folds, I call, BB tank-folds.
Is this a spot where I should have any sort of raising range? I thought not when I'm in position because I can easily keep in his AJ sort of hands that are playing like this.
River ($725): Kx, does not bring in flush.
MP bets $300, I have another ~$4-500 behind. I think for a second and call. Raising seems out of the question when he has all combos of KJ and might even have an extremely-weirdly played KK. I'm obviously ahead of AJ, QJ, JT but I doubt the last two hands are sizing so large.
Do I raise here or just call? Also I'd probably need to see him flip over KJ for me to fold here.
Flop is probably a fold in hindsight, but is the turn/river fine AP?
Last edited by apricotjello; 12-01-2017 at 07:55 PM.
I don't hate the flop bet when checked to, as a J is clearly in your calling range and 88 may actually be the best hand.
The turn bet is small enough in relationship to the pot, that it almost seems like a blocking a bet in hopes of seeing a cheap river- I understand you not wanting to fold him out- however given that the villain is unknown, I would likely raise to $450 dollars to set up a river push- this is the one place I would play the hand differently.
As played, the river is quite difficult. KJ, JJ, and KK are all within his range, however so are AA, TT, AK, QQ, etc. As it is not clear that a raise would get a call from these hands that you beat, but would definitely get a call from the hands you are behind, I would likely flat call.
He’s just too J heavy not to raise turn. I’m not concerned about losing action as the same player who too frequently folds turn when you raise is also going to ckf a number of rivers when you flat turn. I also find it way too presumptive to think someone using this line-sizing is going to bet rivers w busted spades/air.
I also would have Jx turn raises myself here, as much as I like flatting strong, I dislike allowing an aggressive-type to semi bluff barrel his equity at his own price.
Agree on folding flop, recognizing BB is aware of the CO tendency.
Based on combos ahead vs. behind, river is a fairly ez jam imho.
Curious turn sizing with a FD and now an OESD for Th9h. Seems small for hands like JX. 44 might size this way, as well as QhTh, though not sure if these are in his PFR range.
