+1.

The problem I have with folding is that the initial 50% donk on the river doesn't really scream strength.

Also, considering that this is a drunk young guy who gets involved a lot... this player profile should push us away from making hero folds.

Assuming my math is correct, we need to be good here approx. 27% of the time (1095/4050) to call profitably. So less than 3/10 times.

I'd call, and expect to lose a lot. Lots of variance in a spot like this. Even if you're shown the goods 5 straight times, for example, it doesn't really say much as to whether you made the right/wrong decision. Just keep that in mind.

In my last post, i thought hero bet turn not villain, rendering some of my analysis moot

But point about hero range being capped and having maybe 1% boats still holds, makes it tough to fold against certain opponent. The info in op suggests this opponent might be one of those players where folding could be a big mistake.

Still i think its fair to treat call as at least neutral ev based on what we know about opponent.

Looking at that point about bet sizing going from large on turn to half on river, i agree that supports a call and suggests villain could also be overvaluing trips, straight or flush - may not be properly evaluating hand strength on this type of runout - if villain does have a made hand would not be shocked to see qq.

I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure the reason people lean fold is more based on the fact that losing an extra $1100 in a marginal spot at the end of a session is painful or w/e- despite the fact that the $ value is completely irrelevant.

Then you are wrong. The reason i am defaulting to a fold here is that these kind of riverspots is vastly underbluffed by the player population. I repeat _vastly_ underbluffed. Its just a well adjusted strategy to fold in these spots absent strong reads that this player deviates from the population tendencies.

^whats the point of a player profile and why ever consider pot odds if you’re going to play every spot the same way?

Player pool tendencies != Younger guy, drinks - capable of making moves

It’s not just about bluffs/spazz— V has some overplayed value that we could potentially beat as well.

there’s no right answer- but defaulting to player pool tendencies defeats the purpose of posting HHs here.

^^^^ this

deep stack games this thought process is even more critical.

I just don't see V as described bluffing a tight player in this spot.
so I lean fold

If you want to fold to the jam here that is what it is and I don’t think it’s a terrible fold. But to not raise OTR because you’re scared of having to make a difficult decision is just scared money bull****.

In what world is this not a value raise OTR?!??! What game are you all playing?

It’s a close spot and one could also decide that it’s not worth potentially tilting by calling and getting beat in a huge pot. That may be more +EV for that player.

For example, the other day I got it in with AA against J6s and the donkey sucked out. Tilted the f out of me. I got it back because dude was that horrible of a player, obviously, if he’s gonna stack off with a nothing hand, but losing a big pot can tilt you and cause you to make some bad decisions.

Sure, thats a valid consideration. Or the player may go on monkeytilt for like a week being unable to grind the next 2-3 sessions because he cant take losing anymore.

But if so be it, you have mental leaks/challenges wich is the real cause of the problem- not the actual hands that occurs when at the table.

Almost anything...including KK and 1010, though those are less likely. A lot of people don't like to bloat pots OOP, or like to play fancy...I see it constantly.

Plus many people defend their blinds with virtually any two cards...calling $15 with 1300+ behind the SB could literally have any hand, especially if OP is tight/predictable.

There is a player in my home game that treats AK like AA/KK postflop...he will play passively preflop, and then donk bet the hand/stack off on a huge variety of boards that miss his hand completely. And then bemoan his bad luck when he loses to 68.

These are things that are gonna get you in trouble in the long run, I can assure you. The guy wasn't drinking, and we barely have any info on him. So yes sometimes we have to go to our defaults and know these river bluffs are uncommon, especially if we've never seen him do it (he was described as not being terrible, so we can't assume he's over valuing trips or a lower flush). We can't just guess that he might be overplaying his hand when he 3bet jam the river. We need better info on him than that but what do I know he could also be bluffing with ace high (but I'm usually not calling to find out). These people usually have it but anything's possible, he could be bluffing with deuces and if so, nh.

I’m with you, man. In the end, it’s about making the right decisions. Also folding and second-guessing yourself afterwards can tilt you too. It’s a tough decision and I could support either one, calling or folding.

These comments are why I wi never stop playing poker. What do you mean this isn't chess and we don't have to think ahead??? If you're blindly making moves in a vacuum and do not have the foresight as to what is going to happen next you are either:

A) missing tons of value

Or

B) a losing player

Hero, you said you were about to go... did you have chips in a rack or a rack on the table? If so this jam could be an exploitative play as they probably have sniffed out your K or some combo with a 7 and used the river spade as a card they can reasonably bluff if you look like you're ready to leave

For the record, villain has enough combos that include flushes and 7s, that I'm probably sigh calling off as played.

Are you seriously suggesting that only calling the river is best here? I am so confused.
I assure you Browni is a winning player.
You are missing tons of value by not raising this river so I am seriously just confused as to what you are saying.

Good points itt, but this is a game of incomplete information guys. We’re rarely going to have a good enough sample in live poker to have defined reads on how Villain adjusts their play when we’re deep etc even if we’re extremely aware... pick up and remember everything etc.

What I’m trying to say is that when the spot is close, which it is, then calling makes sense because our reads in this situation push us this way. Vs the average V, we would default to folding.

One trick is to raise this river larger, so that you’re further priced in to call off when they do shove. V doesn’t know this of course and I don’t see it changing what they’re shoving (including bluffs). Most of the time, they’ll just call the initial raise and you’ll profit more of course. You’re also increasing fold equity with any bluffs you do have here.

If we’re introducing psychological considerations though—nobody wants to burn $5500 making the incorrect call here five times in a row. So most regs just fold and wait for a better spot. Which is understandable.

same

^you quote two guys that disagree with you (both calling the river shove) and then say “same” lol.

nh sir

dachimp also says Browni is dumb for wanting to raise river for value and simultaneously criticizes him of not going for value and not being a winning player. This thread gives me the confuse.

No, I said as played I'm probably calling the jam.

I criticized browni for saying it isn't necessary to think ahead. I know y'all are probably fan boys and skipped reading the whole statement.

I will reiterate for you... Lacking the foresight will make future decisions more difficult. If you think a step ahead (like choosing a bet size to induce) you make decisions easier and more profitable.

Maybe I was harsh saying that browni misses value or maybe be long term losing player, but criticism isn't meant to give false hope--,it's there to assist and aid. Get past having your panties in a bunch.

You're right I should clarify it

Your comment is horrible thinking - raising enough so you commit your stack if he raises where you have to call a jam...First, you might be raising too much and fold out all the hands you beat. Second, his range is so wide there that there are several combos that beat hero. Third, if we have a flush on a paired board against a readless villain and get raised, he probably has a FH. Why would you wanna force yourself to call to begin with? It's not logical, and I don't mind if you disagree with me. I'm out there playing 6 days a week, full time, with a 3k/mo nut so If someone who plays once every two weeks disagrees with me, I can lead a horse to water but I can't always make him drink it ; )

But I like having my panties in a bunch. It creates a pleasant pressure down there.
I don’t know what you’re meaning about fanboy stuff though. Fanboy of Browni? I was only assuring you that I’ve seen him post longterm winning results. I’m not sick with envy or something. I just like my panties bunched up, what’s the issue with that?

I think river is a fold once 3! and I agree with playbig that raising to a size to intentionally commit yourself if flawed thinking RTP.