March Madness weekend game in Las Vegas. Table has been loose and active...lots of good action so far.
Villain 1: LAG on a heater. I've been at the table for about 45 minutes and he has run his stack up from 1k to around 2.5K. Getting involved in lots of pots with fairly marginal holdings and obviously hitting everything. Raising most times it is folded to him.
Villain 2: TAG pro. Have seen him make a couple big laydowns already. Sitting on 1k.
Villain 3: Has been at the table about 30 minutes and hasn't played many hands at all. Largely readless on him. Clearly a tourist. Super muscular, shaved head, etc. Has around $700.
Villain 4: Not many defined reads on him, seems a little loose, definitely a tourist as well, probably one of the worst players at the table. Has around $600.
Hero: Has only been involved in one hand of note. Hand had $10 button straddle, I have AK in MP and raise to $40. Villain 1 is on my direct left and 3bets to $135. Short stacked fish in the SB shoves for $115. I jam for $450 total. Villain 1 tank calls. Board is all rags and I declare A high, Villain 1 tables JJ to scoop, short stack had 99. I rebought for $500.
OTTH:
Villain 1 is UTG and raises to $15. This raise is on the smaller side for this table. Villain 2 calls, Villain 3 3bets in the hi jack to $50, Villain 4 thinks for a handful of seconds and cold calls the $50 on the button. I look down at QhQs in the BB.
Hero should...? If I 4bet and get jammed on by Villain 3, are we calling it off here?
Is V1 blindly clicking buttons or does he have some awareness?
Assuming he will correctly identify V3's 3-bet as a very strong range and not spazz 4-bet pre, then calling to set mine is probably profitable here. 12:1 direct implied odds. likely to be 14:1 if V1 and V2 call which I would expect them to do almost always. 15:1 is usually what we should be aiming for to purely set mine, but with 5 players to the flop, we should be able to make up a few bets if we flop gin.
I like a call here and folding pretty much any flop bet from SB if I don't flop a set.
V1's range is obviously wide. Hard for V2 to really flat a premium hand here as well. Basically I would expect both V1 and V2 to just call here, giving us a big juicy pot with a whale in it with a very disguised hand. Looking to bink a set. Not looking to put in too much more money if V3 and V4 start getting aggressive post-flop without hitting a set. If we do flop an overpair and V1 bets and V2/V3/V4, we are obviously continuing.
I decided against calling because I wasn't thrilled about seeing a flop 5 ways OOP. I'm setmining with a premium hand and even if I flop an overpair, I'm rarely going to know where I'm at or get paid when I'm good. If I call, V1 and V2 will always call. The pot is $250 and my stack is $450...just a really awkward spot OOP 5 ways.
The flip side, obviously, is that a 4bet can put me in a very tough situation depending on how the action unfolds. I wasn't sure if this was an overplay in this spot. It sounds like the consensus is that it was.
I generally default to population reads. Until I have better information, I put most people in the "only 3!'s QQ+/AK" camp until further notice. The 3! is small and we can potentially win a huge multiway pot. I'm just calling pre as an exploitative adjustment to the table conditions.
I generally default to population reads. Until I have better information, I put most people in the "only 3!'s QQ+/AK" camp until further notice. The 3! is small and we can potentially win a huge multiway pot. I'm just calling pre as an exploitative adjustment to the table conditions.
I think we can approach this as setmining on steroids. For one, if we flop a set, it is almost always top set. If we flop an overpair, and check, and UTG donks out and gets V3/V4 to fold then we can feel comfortable moving on with our hand. It's not exactly set mining. We have decent implied odds if we do spike the set as well with such a big pot and several players. If we 4! and get 5! it just sucks. All that makes me really prefer calling vs 4! here.
I can't argue with any of the thoughts in this thread, and in retrospect I agree simply flatting the $50 is the best play given this tricky spot.
As played, I 4bet, V1 and V2 folded, V3 and V4 both cold called so the pot was over $550 going to the flop. The flop was Jh6h3h, I open shipped, V3 looked like he ate a lemon but called, V4 folds...board bricks out and I scoop a big pot.
However - just because I won doesn't make it the right play. Appreciate the feedback from everyone.
One thing that nobody mentioned... 3betting a small open is not as strong as 3betting a more normal sized raise. And 3betting a LAG is not as strong as 3betting a TAG... Besides, QQ+ will often try to tell you exactly what he's got by 3betting the 15 to something more like $65-75. I don't think a 4bet here or flop play is bad at all.
One thing that nobody mentioned... 3betting a small open is not as strong as 3betting a more normal sized raise. And 3betting a LAG is not as strong as 3betting a TAG... Besides, QQ+ will often try to tell you exactly what he's got by 3betting the 15 to something more like $65-75. I don't think a 4bet here or flop play is bad at all.
For someone described as "clearly a tourist" and I assume very recreational/fishy, $50 probably does seem like a big raise.
