Hand 1: tough spot (do you remember the suit of your Kings?), board is dripping wet and if V is a "TAG" he should have enough moves in his arsenal to semi-bluff the turn. I can see AKs and AQs shoving turn. So if I thought AKs/AQs was majority of V's range then absolutely I would make a crying call. However, I don't think it is.
A young TAG's raising UTG to "only" $15 to me is going to be a wider range of JTs+, 88 -TT type hands, and I can easily see this villain calling your 3-bet since these types of villains tend to raise/call as long as the raise isn't anything ridiculous and you only made it 3 x his raise so I can see him calling you with basically 90% of his initial raising range.
I think V has a large amount of Jx in his range. Depending on the suits of Kings you have, there is a good chance V also has KQs. I'm leaning more towards a fold here. I wouldn't fault a call because as slim shady points out, we only have to be good around 25% of the time...
So I guess the real question is, do we think V is bluffing 25% of the time?
I think that 100% of V's bluffs in this spot will be semi-bluffs with a fair amount of equity: OESD, SD + FD, Pair + FD etc. type hands. So, at worst case, V still has a fair amount of outs/equity. So I think when you add everything up I tihnk this is a puke fold, but I can definitely see the case/argument for a call.
Hand 2.
I think this is much more straightforward. A high percentage of the time, the check/raise shove in this spot is going to be flush draws and these draws aren't all going to be FD + two overs. Large percentage of the time it will be FD + one over so we are ahead equity wise. Also, V can have a pair and put us on the typical "AK" preflop raising range and over value his pockets or 9x hand. Of course, sucks if V has a set. But add it all up, a call should be +EV, just a bit high variance.
Pot is $135-ish and V bets $155 so basically getting 2:1, so this is a much more straightforward call imo. Now, if V had shoved something like $350 I think we could find a fold. But for $155 we are basically getting 2:1 and will have the equity for that
Quote:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
32,670 games 0.000 secs 6,534,000 games/sec
Board: 9c 5d 3d
Dead:
equity
Hand 0: 55.017% { JdJh }
Hand 1: 44.983% { TT-99, 55, 33, AdJd, AdTd, A9s, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad4d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdTd, K9s, Q9s, J9s }
so Hand 2 is a clear call imo.