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2/5 - a couple of meh overpair spots 2/5 - a couple of meh overpair spots

05-10-2013 , 02:13 PM
Hero - 60 yr old reg, TAG image
Villains - young TAG regs

Hand 1 - eff stack 460

Villain raises to 15 from UTG, Hero 3-bets to 45 with KK, all others fold, villain calls

Flop - JhJs9h (95)

Hero bets 60, villain calls

Turn - Ts (215)

Hero bets 130(should I have checked or bet smaller), villain shoves for 355 total, Hero ?????


Hand 2 - eff stack 280

Hero opens for 20 from UTG+2 with JJ, 3 callers inc villain in BB

Flop - 953(2 diamonds) (80)

Villain checks, Hero bets 55, two folds, villain check raises to 155, hero???
2/5 - a couple of meh overpair spots Quote
05-10-2013 , 03:32 PM
I think the first is a fold. There really isn't anything except A2s-87s, and small pocket pairs that you have equity against, but you are getting crushed by most of his UTG raising range except for the combos of AK. Even against AQ (16 combos) he does have ~15% equity, not including if he has flush draws. You've showed strength by 3betting then barreling twice, and he is giving you decent odds 3.5:1 on a call, so I would tend to think this isn't for value, especially as people often don't put in a lot of money without the goods.

Second hand is pretty read dependent, if the villain thinks he can push you around after the last hand it probably increases the amount of bluffs in his range. He could also be doing this with flush draws as well as OESDs. I think sets are less likely as checkraises appear really strong and stacks are short enough to get in by the river anyway. This flop doesn't hit your range, so it is a good board to bluff you off of the pot. However, even if you aren't behind, you aren't looking too great against KQdd. It really depends on a live read. I don't think you can call, it's a 3bet shove or fold spot, IMO.
2/5 - a couple of meh overpair spots Quote
05-11-2013 , 01:48 AM
These are some of the most interesting hands that I've read on the forums lately and no one is commenting on them! These spots happen a lot and, while they can be diminished by being aware of your SPR and commitment thresholds, you still have to deal with the fact that the pot is really bloated and money will go in a lot lighter than you are used to.
2/5 - a couple of meh overpair spots Quote
05-11-2013 , 01:54 AM
None of these spots are interesting. Hero is 60 basically looks like a nit. With that image these are all easy folds.

The second hand is basically read dependent for hero's with a regular image.
2/5 - a couple of meh overpair spots Quote
05-11-2013 , 01:56 AM
hand 1 is a crying call. You are getting over 3:1 on a call so even if u are good 25% of the time u will turn a profit by calling. U beat qq and some combo draws like 10xhh and there shouldn't be many jacks in his range except maybe aj or qj suited. Hand 2 is a fold against an unknown, u will just be crushed against a set or flipping against a big draw too often
2/5 - a couple of meh overpair spots Quote
05-11-2013 , 08:28 AM
Hand 1: tough spot (do you remember the suit of your Kings?), board is dripping wet and if V is a "TAG" he should have enough moves in his arsenal to semi-bluff the turn. I can see AKs and AQs shoving turn. So if I thought AKs/AQs was majority of V's range then absolutely I would make a crying call. However, I don't think it is.

A young TAG's raising UTG to "only" $15 to me is going to be a wider range of JTs+, 88 -TT type hands, and I can easily see this villain calling your 3-bet since these types of villains tend to raise/call as long as the raise isn't anything ridiculous and you only made it 3 x his raise so I can see him calling you with basically 90% of his initial raising range.

I think V has a large amount of Jx in his range. Depending on the suits of Kings you have, there is a good chance V also has KQs. I'm leaning more towards a fold here. I wouldn't fault a call because as slim shady points out, we only have to be good around 25% of the time...

So I guess the real question is, do we think V is bluffing 25% of the time?

I think that 100% of V's bluffs in this spot will be semi-bluffs with a fair amount of equity: OESD, SD + FD, Pair + FD etc. type hands. So, at worst case, V still has a fair amount of outs/equity. So I think when you add everything up I tihnk this is a puke fold, but I can definitely see the case/argument for a call.

Hand 2.

I think this is much more straightforward. A high percentage of the time, the check/raise shove in this spot is going to be flush draws and these draws aren't all going to be FD + two overs. Large percentage of the time it will be FD + one over so we are ahead equity wise. Also, V can have a pair and put us on the typical "AK" preflop raising range and over value his pockets or 9x hand. Of course, sucks if V has a set. But add it all up, a call should be +EV, just a bit high variance.

Pot is $135-ish and V bets $155 so basically getting 2:1, so this is a much more straightforward call imo. Now, if V had shoved something like $350 I think we could find a fold. But for $155 we are basically getting 2:1 and will have the equity for that

Quote:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

32,670 games 0.000 secs 6,534,000 games/sec

Board: 9c 5d 3d
Dead:

equity
Hand 0: 55.017% { JdJh }
Hand 1: 44.983% { TT-99, 55, 33, AdJd, AdTd, A9s, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad4d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdTd, K9s, Q9s, J9s }
so Hand 2 is a clear call imo.
2/5 - a couple of meh overpair spots Quote
05-11-2013 , 12:27 PM
Didn't se effective stacks in hand 2. Since ur heads up and villain is only about 60bb deep I'd shove in this spot as he can have a lot more draws or 1010/9x instead of sets here. Raise bigger pre, my standard from early is 30-35 with 1010-qq.
2/5 - a couple of meh overpair spots Quote

      
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