MP is a losing LAG reg who has been running hot this session and VPIPing around 35%. Hero just owned MP in a hand exactly one orbit earlier (last hand I posted), so Hero's image is fairly credible.

I mainly 3-bet here, but MP has been 4-betting light a ton this session and I don't mind taking a flop in position in this spot.

I feel having both an A and 6 is so good for running a bluff on this board. Obviously having diamonds isn't great but what other bluffs can we have?

Would you go for it here? What sizing?

Hero starts the hand with $1,600 and MP covers

Hero Ad6d in BTN 2/5 live

MP raises to $20, CO calls, Hero calls

Flop ($67) 5d3h2d
MP bets $40, CO folds, Hero raises to $140, MP calls

Turn ($347) Kh
MP checks, Hero bets $250, MP calls

River ($847) Ts
MP checks, Hero? ($1,200 effective)

This hand would've played a lot better if you 3 bet pf.

Then I'd absolutely empty the clip here.

As played holding 2 diamonds I don't feel great barreling river when he calls flop and K turn.

You either have the best hand or you're gonna get called by Kx a lot I think. idk you could get JJ and QQ to fold, but that's a narrow target. Too bad you didn't have KQ of diamonds instead because then this would be an easy river overbet.

I’d just call flop here. You have position, use it. As played, let it fly.

1) When you "own" someone recently they are very likely not going to fold against you regardless of circumstances.

2) Your turn bet is way too small and is giving V a great price to call on whatever he has.

3) There are 2 overcards and all draws missed. If you fire turn you have to fire river even though I dont like it for point #1 but under normal circumstances I fire river here 100%. Due to the previous hands history I would have raised flop and x behind on a missed turn.

For value?

Yes.

What are you targeting?

A5, 66-QQ, KJ.

This is an intriguing hand: thanks to OP for sharing it!

The very astute Mr S suggests this hand would be easier with a 3b but it could’ve been over much more quickly too at a lower SPR or if V 4b. I also agree with nine finger shuffle that it’s better to flat/float flop in position.

AP V’s x/c line ott puzzles me. V does seem to be in pot control mode and at least is considering the possibility we have a set. The fulcrum issue for me is whether V can call our turn bet unless he can beat Kx now or without an A in his hand for the wheel redraw. Unless he a tremendous punter, he has to fold his JJ/Qq and worse on this turn.

So I think the river is a brick in this respect and changes nothing. We offer him less than 2-1 on a call if we jam and I think he has 12 Aq plus a few AJs and ATs that could’ve taken this line. So there’s perhaps 17 combos V can fold versus 3 AA and 9 Ak he can call us with. I discounted his 44 but perhaps he can fold these too.

Would a lag have checked his Ak on this turn? If not, we should jam because he will only call with his AA. If he can check his AK, we should give up because he has too many combos with which he can call getting nearly 2-1.

I get that LLSNL villains call super wide, but you expect them to call an overbet with all of these hands?

No not at all. But it's a wide enough net to try to catch that one fish.

This is the rare occasion I would disagree with mr spyutastic.

I don't think that A6s is good or bad enough to 3bet with, even against a LAG.

As played, I would probably wouldn't have raises the flop, though I could get behind that. It's alright if you check the river. I think the goal is to have bluffs on every street not to win every hand with your hands. This isn't a good hand or a spot to try bluffing that river.

Same here. A6s is probably the absolute worst suited ace, and i see very few(if any) arguments for 3 betting this against a LAG. Yes, this particular hand on this particular flop would have been easier to play with a bigger pot/lower SPR but that isnt a reason to 3 bet in itself.

I mean, it would also be nice to have a big pot/low SPR if we flop 55A with 53s, that doesent mean we should 3 bet it. That is resultoriented thinking cause we got lucky and hit a huge flop.

I don't mind calling pf either. Also we do agree that we shouldn't bluff the river here. My other comments were in the hypothetical that we get to the river w/ KQ in which we are no longer bluffing.

Results: Hero jams ($1,200 effective). Villain basically snap calls with KdJd

I feel that villain should be calling AA/AK no diamond and sets for sure. I went with this sizing basically targeting his exact hand, flush draws with a T, and QQ-66.

I guess if he calls with this combo our bluff is horrendous. QQ without a diamond is a much better call than this, but of course the villain wouldn't think this way. Maybe results oriented as I still feel this combo with the nut blockers is a mandatory bluff here as played.

Did V play this hand perfectly by check calling turn and river?


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Yes

With your read that V is 4betting light, did you ever think of 3betting this hand preflop with the intention of 5bet bluffing? You are so deep that this is worth considering, and he'd never see it coming.