Villain (425) - standard tag reg, mid 20s
Hero (650) - late 20s, have only been sitting with V for a couple orbits, haven't played a meaningful hand

Loose passive whale covering the table spewing off chips at light speed raises to 20 from MP, loose passive fish calls in HJ, hero calls in CO with 78, V calls from SB.

Flop(80): K54

Checks around to hero who bets 55, V raises to 140, others fold. Hero?

on the the flop with range (imo) based on post flop action.


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.779% 44.61% 00.17% 56534 210.50 { 8h7h }
Hand 1: 55.221% 55.05% 00.17% 69765 210.50 { KK+, 55-44, AKs, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, K8s+, K5s-K4s, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, Qh6h, JhTh, Jh9h, J8s, Jh6h, Th9h, Th6h, 5c4c, 5d4d, 5s4s, 3h2h, AKo, K8o+, 76o, 54o }

Flat. But this would be a fold for me OOP.

I like checking this flop and drawing cheaply then going for value if you hit.

As played Gii and hope you hit. Just calling is no good imo if villain is any good since he only gonna have ~80% psb left and folding here basically out of question

Is he ever check raising with a rich calling station still left to act with a nut flush draw or even a j or q high flush draw? Is he only craising with players left to act with a set or bottom two?

I'm pretty sure he's setting up for a turn shove, so you must take that in consideration.

He would probably lead with kj, kq, k10 type hands with a passive player raising.

Im not sure what the math is, if its correct to flat to see one card against a set of 5s, 4s or 45 or maybe A5hh. If it is call, if it isn't fold, if your a mathematical favorite to see two cards... jam. He's never folding obviously.

Btw, why didnt you check behind?

Btw, i sincerely doubt a solid tag, as you describe him flatted with ak or kk against a pfr from an action player willing to gamble

But....if he is craising with a passive player thats been a lot of action this session with a higher flush draw, thats tough.

I dunno, take out all top pair hands and obv ak and kk from his range, run one with only 44,55,45,and A5hh than run another with those hands and all higher flush draws. Say he has first range 70 percent of the time, second range 30 percent of the time and go from there.

Or just flip a coin, heads shove tails fold.

Take half the flush draw combos out and take out 76o. He's not c/r with that. Take of KK+ as he didn't raise pre. Run it again.

No matter what you do here, this spot is SO marginal. Probably marginal + since your 50 is already in plus the pfr. I don't quite feel like running the numbers, but if I had to guess, your ev is about +$3.50 on a shove. That being said, I like a fold.

arr in

If hero checks the flop and a flush card comes, the action could freeze up unless they've made a flush as well. Semi-bluff shoving scares enough of the one pair hands away and provides enough equity against 2 pair/sets to be profitable. Unless you have reason to believe that V is not folding a pair or that he only will only c/r with monsters.

Check flop. As played, fold. You described him yourself as TAG. If you shove, then prepare to play for your entire stack b/c V is certainly not folding here. I think more times than not here, he has bottom or middle set......at worst bottom 2p. As a TAG, I don't see V calling 20 OOP with AK, and that's probably the hand we're hoping he has. KQ/KJ are possible, but not likely given his position and image.

I can't get behind checking back flop yet... Going to need more convincing. Neither the preflop raiser or player behind would check ANY pp or K here, and there are a ton of K in my preflop calling range that I'm betting 100% of the time here for value. Why not couple fold equity with the draw?

I mean yeah, sometimes the tag player in the blinds is going to check raise monsters, but most of the time he's folding and so are the two fish.

I think our equity is more like 35%, were up against mostly sets and better flush draws.

Its going to be extremely difficult to know whether we are ahead or not unless we hit a six.

If we shove we need close to 40% equity.

I agree with SunChips, its a close spot but I would just fold unless I have more info on villain

I really dislike the bet on the flop. Here's why:

For people who overdo semi-bluffing (and virtually everyone seems to especially in multi-way pots) the check-raise is the perfect response.

We made a loose call pre-flop hopefully just because we figured to have absolute and relative position post-flop. Then we went and totally negated our advantage.

If your range is filled with strong value hands (is it really?) and you get check-raised then presumably you have to fold, but again that just shows what a bad bet you made on the flop.

If this is what you believe is true:

1. Everyone is checking hands that totally missed the flop
2. You feel compelled to bet
3. Everyone thinks you have a very strong king

Then isn't everyone folding to a much smaller bet on the flop?

*grunch*

Got any stronger read than "standard TAG"? Because that could describe most of the player pool.

Preflop, I don't mind the call based on the read of the original raiser, esp if he's as deep as you.

Flop: Betting isn't bad. Checking isn't bad either.

His calling range pre flop shouldn't be too tight. Probably any medium to small pair, two broadways, suited connectors or suited aces are possible but maybe a little less likely.

Your perceived range isn't that strong, since you can be bluffing or betting pairs worse than K-X here.

His range is probably 55, 44, any decent K-X, Nut flush draws, and some percentage of bluffs.

That's 6 combos of sets, about 4 combos of flush draws, and about 20 combos of K-X. I discounted the flush draws and K-X since he might have check/called with them while he'd certainly raise sets. If you shove, he'll fold only his bluffs and possibly KJ. He'd almost certainly call with everything else. You've got about 40% equity against that range.

If you shove, let's say he's bluffing 10% and folds. He'll fold KJ 5%. 85% of the time he calls and you have 40% equity.

EV shove = .15*$275 + .85 (.4*$540 - .6*$350) = $41 + 5 = +$46.

Shoving is profitable but high variance.

But you are getting 3.2 to 1 immediate odds. I'm calling and I'm pretty sure it's the highest EV line. We are getting the right immediate odds to hit a 12 outer for just one card, with implied odds as well.

To those who say fold, let's pretend we somehow know for sure villain has a set. We can profitably call flop with the plan of folding to a turn bet if we miss. We don't even need any implied odds.

IMO with a low flush draw you have to turn a little cautious to the raise. Even though you have an inside straight draw, you can't ship it.

You bet 55 into 80 = $135, V bets $140 + 135 = $275...$25 to win $275 (maybe more). Two pair is possible 54, set of 5's or 4's, possibly a higher flush draw...23hh if V is a complete donk, or A2/A3hh. This is a flatting situation because we see aggression, and when the heart comes or hopefully a 6 non-heart lol...we can see how V reacts. If you try to fast play and V has one of the stronger listed hands, you will get felted.

Strategy? Flat the raise and see what happens.

It seems really results oriented to say Hero should be checking behind on the flop here. We have a ton of FE; the pf raiser and HJ are both betting any Kx+, and it's a little strange to think we're getting check-raised by SB very often. If he were tricky/LAG, then sure, but a "standard TAG" is usually folding here. His range includes tons of pairs between K and 5, and probably some AQ/AJ and SCs.