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2/5 Combo draw faces overbet 3-bet shove on flop 2/5 Combo draw faces overbet 3-bet shove on flop

08-25-2015 , 05:24 AM
Villain is a pro, very TAG, great player, friend of hero's but we never soft play each other. All things being equal and multiple good tables going, we generally avoid playing on same table together.

V has $1100 to start hand, hero covers. I think almost everyone else involved has at least $500.

EP limps.
HJ raises to 20.
CO calls.
Hero has 52 on BTN and decides to call (go ahead and crucify me 2+2).
SB calls.
Villain calls in BB.
EP limper calls.

Pot $115
Flop 467
SB checks.
V bets $60.
It folds to Hero. Hero raises to $180 (?).
SB folds.
V goes into the tank, counting down his stack, seems to be genuinely facing a tough decision. Someone calls clock unreasonably quickly. As floor is standing by counting it down, V shoves for $1080 total.

Hero?

My thoughts: V is a very smart player. I don't think he would make such an obscene shove with a straight here. I think sets and two pair are the bulk of his shoving range, wanting to go ahead and protect against a billion crappy turn cards and also having outs against a straight. I consider it unlikely he's got AX or 6X, because he'd be in terrible shape if Hero has a set or straight, and it would be spewy to shove such a big stack with one of those hands in that situation. But obviously if he does have either of those two hands, it's Hero that's in terrible shape. And Hero has blockers against the flush draws and even the flopped straights. Also, it's not to be discounted that player X's clock-calling may have pressured V into making a decision he may have otherwise avoided.

It's $900 more for Hero to win $1375. If V does have a set or 2-pair, Hero has the math to call here, though it is a minuscule edge. But isn't taking minuscule edges better than folding simply to avoid high-variance spots? But if we think V could ever shove the pair+flush draw or nut flush draw here, it would be a terrible call on Hero's part against V's overall range, right?
2/5 Combo draw faces overbet 3-bet shove on flop Quote
08-25-2015 , 07:43 AM
Flat the flop. Your raise there is a massive overplay with this hand. You don't fair well vs his calling range or his get it in range.
2/5 Combo draw faces overbet 3-bet shove on flop Quote
08-25-2015 , 09:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rod the Bod
Villain is a pro, very TAG, great player, friend of hero's but we never soft play each other. All things being equal and multiple good tables going, we generally avoid playing on same table together.

Nice brag.

V has $1100 to start hand, hero covers. I think almost everyone else involved has at least $500.

EP limps.
HJ raises to 20.
CO calls.
Hero has 52 on BTN and decides to call (go ahead and crucify me 2+2). If you don't want to be crucified, tell us your plan. Why didn't you raise? Flatting here, hoping to hit a hand, even deep, is silly. More often than not you go broke with some weak-sauce draw, either by chasing it, or by talking yourself into some crazy semi-bluff.
SB calls.
Villain calls in BB.
EP limper calls.

Pot $115
Flop 467
SB checks.
V bets $60.
It folds to Hero. Hero raises to $180 (?). See, told you so.
SB folds.
V goes into the tank, counting down his stack, seems to be genuinely facing a tough decision. Someone calls clock unreasonably quickly. As floor is standing by counting it down, V shoves for $1080 total.

Hero?

My thoughts: V is a very smart player. I don't think he would make such an obscene shove with a straight here.
Why? If you're semi bluffing with a pair+flush draw, it's about 50/50, and you'd at least think long and hard about folding.

I think sets and two pair are the bulk of his shoving range, wanting to go ahead and protect against a billion crappy turn cards and also having outs against a straight.
Those are all things that he would think about if he had a straight too.


I consider it unlikely he's got AX or 6X, because he'd be in terrible shape if Hero has a set or straight, and it would be spewy to shove such a big stack with one of those hands in that situation.
Your hand is pretty much the same as either of those hands against a set. If it's spewy to shove with them, then wouldn't it also be spewy to call a shove with them?


But obviously if he does have either of those two hands, it's Hero that's in terrible shape. And Hero has blockers against the flush draws and even the flopped straights. Also, it's not to be discounted that player X's clock-calling may have pressured V into making a decision he may have otherwise avoided.

It's $900 more for Hero to win $1375. If V does have a set or 2-pair, Hero has the math to call here, though it is a minuscule edge.

Miniscule is right, and you have to average it against all the other hands in V's range. If you know for sure he has a set or two pair, and you dont' mind the swing, then call. But you don't know for sure, and you will mind the swing.

But isn't taking minuscule edges better than folding simply to avoid high-variance spots?
No, it definitely is not. It's probably a personal preference thing, but if you were bankrolled to cruise through he kind of downswing you're risking here, then you would have already called.

But if we think V could ever shove the pair+flush draw or nut flush draw here, it would be a terrible call on Hero's part against V's overall range, right?

It's a terrible call period. Villain would have to turn over his cards and show me KJ before I even think about calling
There really are just so many better ways to spend $900
2/5 Combo draw faces overbet 3-bet shove on flop Quote
08-25-2015 , 09:40 AM
Obviously fold pre, but whatever. Call flop -- what are you trying to get V to fold? He's in bb and bet into multiple opponents.

He's willing to gii against you. What do you think he thinks you have? I don't think you have even a small edge, and many of your outs are probably gone. Just fold.
2/5 Combo draw faces overbet 3-bet shove on flop Quote
08-25-2015 , 10:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt
Call flop -- what are you trying to get V to fold? He's in bb and bet into multiple opponents.
+10.

I don't mind the call pre so much if OR or caller are pretty fishy. 100BB is kind of a stretch, but I can dig it if they are super leaky. However against players with any semblance of skill, i'd not be playing this hand without eff stacks being 250-300BB since we are going to have to bluff a lot of marginal spots to make this profitable but when we hit that cooler we want to make it worth our while.

This is a 6 way pot with a donk lead. Villain will usually have 2 pair minimum or a combo draw. We suck against that range. I know our hand is a monster but i'm actually ok folding flop since his range just dominates us and were just not going to know which part of the strong range he is in. Calling flop is fine if you have a GREAT handle on his tendencies so you can know when to fold your flushes and how to value your hands to get sets and 2 pairs to call. However most of your just never going to be making a lot of money on this hand when you do hit since you have the obvious draws and your going to lose a lot of money sometimes when you do hit from a bigger draw.
2/5 Combo draw faces overbet 3-bet shove on flop Quote
08-25-2015 , 04:44 PM
Fold always AP.
I'm glad you posted, but too much detail on what Vs range looks like AFTER you blew yourself off of what could have been a solid pot had you just called. HU deep, a float with good equity makes turns much tougher for him to play while keeping you options open. Unless your plan was to induce 3!, then call every time instead and then we can post turn actions which gets interesting.
2/5 Combo draw faces overbet 3-bet shove on flop Quote
08-25-2015 , 07:05 PM
I know we have a lot of equity but both of our draws are very obvious and most Villains will see the four card str8 and/or flush. Also, when I hit my draw I like to be 70-80% confident that I am drawing to the higher str8 or flush and with 52 that is never possible. So I would fold pre-flop.

However as played; Your Flop raise is fine if you think Villain will donk bet with one-pair hands that will fold to a raise. But now that Villain bet/3bet Allin (even if the 3bet wasn't an all in bet) I'd probably fold to any size raise even if I was getting the odds to draw because I would hate life if villain had 6X and over flushed me. Because hero is drawing so thin against Villains range I would fold.
2/5 Combo draw faces overbet 3-bet shove on flop Quote
08-25-2015 , 08:33 PM
Thank you for all the good responses. I agree that I played this hand terribly. I still don't mind the call pre, having the button, but I need to do a better job of making sure not to go crazy in a multi-way pot like this when I do flop a draw. Calling the donk bet > raising for sure.
2/5 Combo draw faces overbet 3-bet shove on flop Quote
08-25-2015 , 09:14 PM
I'm interested in why a great player would ever make a 3X pot raise without a nutted hand.
2/5 Combo draw faces overbet 3-bet shove on flop Quote

      
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