Villain is a pro, very TAG, great player, friend of hero's but we never soft play each other. All things being equal and multiple good tables going, we generally avoid playing on same table together.
V has $1100 to start hand, hero covers. I think almost everyone else involved has at least $500.
EP limps.
HJ raises to 20.
CO calls.
Hero has 5
2
on BTN and decides to call (go ahead and crucify me 2+2).
SB calls.
Villain calls in BB.
EP limper calls.
Pot $115
Flop 4
6
7
SB checks.
V bets $60.
It folds to Hero. Hero raises to $180 (?).
SB folds.
V goes into the tank, counting down his stack, seems to be genuinely facing a tough decision. Someone calls clock unreasonably quickly. As floor is standing by counting it down, V shoves for $1080 total.
Hero?
My thoughts: V is a very smart player. I don't think he would make such an obscene shove with a straight here. I think sets and two pair are the bulk of his shoving range, wanting to go ahead and protect against a billion crappy turn cards and also having outs against a straight. I consider it unlikely he's got A
X
or 6
X
, because he'd be in terrible shape if Hero has a set or straight, and it would be spewy to shove such a big stack with one of those hands in that situation. But obviously if he does have either of those two hands, it's Hero that's in terrible shape. And Hero has blockers against the flush draws and even the flopped straights. Also, it's not to be discounted that player X's clock-calling may have pressured V into making a decision he may have otherwise avoided.
It's $900 more for Hero to win $1375. If V does have a set or 2-pair, Hero has the math to call here, though it is a minuscule edge. But isn't taking minuscule edges better than folding simply to avoid high-variance spots? But if we think V could ever shove the pair+flush draw or nut flush draw here, it would be a terrible call on Hero's part against V's overall range, right?