The poker gods have given you a gift. Appease them.

Raising at least keeps our options open on future streets. If an offsuit deuce comes or the board pairs we can check back in position and see a free river. If we hit we can bet for value. If we miss but a good bluff card comes we can continue and represent it (like a Q or K).

If we call, where does that leave us on future streets? I assume we are calling his turn bets right? Do we just give up when it goes brick brick and let him show down 76 to win?

I want 0 FE otf, and Im flatting strictly for value bc Im confident that leaving his whole range in/keeping him betting turns yields aggregate EV lines that compete/exceed those of raising against this guy/this board/this hand.

Sorta skeptical a 90% VPIP player is going to fold much to a flop raise here. Calling is a great option

Why do we want him to fold?



Just call **** like A2cc here, ATcc is a raise simply because you're crushing his range in terms of hot & cold equity and he's unlikely to fold.

I'm checking behind any turn that's not a club or makes us a straight, possibly worth betting Ax turns as well.

This has to be the worst reasoning for any suggested action I've read in a long time. Raising with ATcc isn't a bluff, and we shouldn't be bluffing in this spot.

we aren't bluffing, this is a value hand based on equity. Raise it up.

This hand isn't even that bad of shape against JT and sets.

asts 39.85% 360 69
jdtc 60.15% 561 69

asts 28.39% 231 52
jdtc 36.03% 300 52
8c8h 35.59% 320 4

asts 39.39% 381 18
8c8h 60.61% 591 18

Raise. This is a great spot for us to raise.

I know we have good equity against anything, but I'm just not sure we are ever getting it in as a big favorite, which is something we prob want to do vs a spewy 90% vpip player

Our straight draw isnt diguised at all. Even this villain is capable of folding with 4 to a straight on the board. So we want value now, or we want to win the pot. Either way, Im raising this

Flatting for value does not exist.

Raising is far more +EV than flatting here

Definite raise for so many reasons. The donk bet from villain is less than a half pot bet, we want to take iniative for later streets, we want to get more money in when we probably have an edge EV wise vs this villain's range, if villain folds we win with A high, we want more money in now in case villain check/folds when flush or straight comes in, etc.

It's really way too complex a spot for you to definitively say that you maximize EV by raising>calling particularly this early in the hand.

It's semantics, but of course you can maximize EV at times checking>betting or calling>raising. If that weren't true, the game would have been long since solved.

Perhaps I am wrong, and flatting loses EV on average, but there are benefits to keeping his entire betting range in on turns, you inevitably narrow it to some degree by raising.

I'd be raising 2P's, sets, straights, AT, AJx, TT Small% A9x, QTs
I'm flatting TT-AA, naked NFD's & most of the combo's I got out of line pre with J8s, J9s, AJ, T9s, and T8s,T7s (if you even have some of these here?)

To the question of ever being that far ahead..

No probably not, but i still think you need to raise this guy otf. I disagree with a massive sizing though. ~$160 should work fine

He continues with so much that we're doing great against (really not hating it no matter what he has) He usually is checking to us ott, this basically gives the decision to gii up to us. There's a bunch of turn cards that make life miserable for villain when he's oop, besides just value, there's a ton of "playability" here

Raise the flop and play a turn with all options opened ip w/ a hand the likes almost half the deck.

I don't think you're mandated to gii just because you raised the flop? Did you get 3 bet and that's why you're sort of insinuating this? I'd be trying to gii but if the run out is a disaster, checking back turns/folding rivers, though painful, aren't the end of the world.

I dont understand why people are saying we don't want a fold OTF. If V has a draw, being a spewtard and running like God, he's never folding. And that's the only hand we want him to continue with. We would rather get a fold from J8 than not. Yes our equity is strong no matter what his range, but it's not nut like, yet. And 100% of 40bb is probably better than 55-60% of whatever the final pot size will be.

As said, the only caveat is if V won't fold a 1 pair type hand for any amount if we hit. Then flat but I don't think V has been described that way.

^ that's a good point. I don't wanna keep him in the hand if he's got top pair, especially if we're only around a 55/45 favorite. Sure we're a favorite, but any time we get him to fold and give up his half of the pot when it's a little more than a flip, it's a plus for us. We're not winning at showdown unless we hit one of our 18 outs.

The range I threw together gave us 63% equity vs. 37-ish...that's a 26% edge...if this thing gets to ~150 BB (which it will if we raise and he calls) we are better off EV wise raising.

Sure if hero only has 55% equity then taking down 40bb pot 100% of the time is likely going to be a better answer than most scenarios. But find me a REALISTIC range that a 90% VPIP has that we only have 55% equity against.

People just want to say hey we probably don't have a ton of equity but this guy is a typical gambling fish and that needs to be accounted for heavily in the scenario.

Of course, I am all for raising just doing so for value not as a bluff.

But what kind of hands is he possibly folding? We fold out the hands we really would rather take the pot down with. He's never folding a draw, and those are the hands we absolutely do crush as our draws are best and A high wins a nothing runout. We want him to call those hands while we build the pot. So raising is a win-win, unless he has something like 24o and he was just taking a stab in which case he's not putting in another dime no matter what.

As far as 90% VPIP, this is the kind of flop that 90% VPIP just loves. Just a few ranges...
on this flop AK is a dog against a random hand 55-45.
22 is a 2-1 dog against a random hand.

What hands do you think he is actually bet/folding? I can think of exactly none that a 90% is b/f