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2/5 Cold 3 Bet Flop With OESFD And We Get A Nightmare Turn 2/5 Cold 3 Bet Flop With OESFD And We Get A Nightmare Turn

12-07-2019 , 04:54 PM
$2/$5, 9 handed, $500 effective. Hero has played with villain ~100 hours at 1/2 and ~15 hours at 2/5, and there appears to be no difference in how he plays the two stakes. I would estimate villain's VPIP to be ~ 40% VPIP and ~10% PFR. Villain still tends to be more passive post, but has random spazzes with top pair, and plays his draws aggressively from time to time. I get the idea that villain thinks hero is FOS and/or just hates losing to hero.

OTTH

ATC whale who loves to bet open limps UTG, loose player who usually plays PLO but plays post OK calls +1, tight passive calls +2, villain calls LJ, loose passive calls HJ, hero calls BTN with J 8, loose passive SB calls, and tight passive BB calls.

Flop ($40): T 9 5. X to UTG whale who bets $15, +1 calls, +2 folds, villain raises to $35 in LJ, it's folded to hero who cold 3 bets to $175 and only villain calls.

Turn ($520): T. Villain checks. Hero with $320 behind? Before this turn card I was planning on jamming any, then the turn came and I wondered if this was the one turn we check .
2/5 Cold 3 Bet Flop With OESFD And We Get A Nightmare Turn Quote
12-07-2019 , 05:30 PM
I think the way he plays this flop he very often has a fd that's higher than yours.

I think you have enough to jam it in now because you will lose in the river very often whether you hit or not.
2/5 Cold 3 Bet Flop With OESFD And We Get A Nightmare Turn Quote
12-07-2019 , 10:31 PM
I don't mind checking our entire range on this turn. We're basically only ever holding boats, QJss, 78ss, and J8ss. I like being able to realize our equity with our combo draws, while allowing villain to hit his draw and/or bluff us when we're boated.

I'm probably just checking the river back too if it bricks and he checks to us. It sucks but we're basically banking on villain having squarely Axss if we try to bluff. In theory he should probably check his entire range to us on the river. It's going to be really hard for him to have a betting range on the river given that our range is so nutted.
2/5 Cold 3 Bet Flop With OESFD And We Get A Nightmare Turn Quote
12-07-2019 , 11:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Colombo
I don't mind checking our entire range on this turn. We're basically only ever holding boats, QJss, 78ss, and J8ss. I like being able to realize our equity with our combo draws, while allowing villain to hit his draw and/or bluff us when we're boated.

I'm probably just checking the river back too if it bricks and he checks to us. It sucks but we're basically banking on villain having squarely Axss if we try to bluff. In theory he should probably check his entire range to us on the river. It's going to be really hard for him to have a betting range on the river given that our range is so nutted.
+1
2/5 Cold 3 Bet Flop With OESFD And We Get A Nightmare Turn Quote
12-08-2019 , 02:55 AM
Just jam turn, forget this theory check my range crap, it’s very unlikely he didn’t ship flop with 55 or t9 so you should still plenty of equity even when called, get him to fold his 78cc or jq or even 5xss
2/5 Cold 3 Bet Flop With OESFD And We Get A Nightmare Turn Quote
12-08-2019 , 03:37 AM
Yeah I don't like checking either. We want him to fold his fd that's often better than ours. He's less likely to call on a paired board especially when the top card pairs.

When check we often lose the max when we hit our draw. And when we brick he just bluffs into us and we don't even have a chance to bluff.
2/5 Cold 3 Bet Flop With OESFD And We Get A Nightmare Turn Quote
12-08-2019 , 07:11 AM
Do we actually think this V is going to fold a NFD or overs+FD on the turn?

The way the action went on the flop V can still have AT/KT given vague description and hes probably not folding these hands either. It sounds like this guy just wanted to play a hand with you and now you are in a shitty spot where your only real option is checking and hoping it checks on the river as well. I would have played the hand the same way, check the turn and river.
2/5 Cold 3 Bet Flop With OESFD And We Get A Nightmare Turn Quote
12-08-2019 , 07:37 AM
Grunch.

I’d go $35-45 pre as you’re on the button. Respect for raising the flop but why so large? I’d go $115-145. AP ship turn
2/5 Cold 3 Bet Flop With OESFD And We Get A Nightmare Turn Quote
12-08-2019 , 07:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RoadtoPro
Grunch.

I’d go $35-45 pre as you’re on the button. Respect for raising the flop but why so large? I’d go $115-145. AP ship turn
Its the correct play to make it about 5-6x on a very draw heavy board.
2/5 Cold 3 Bet Flop With OESFD And We Get A Nightmare Turn Quote
12-08-2019 , 10:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic
Yeah I don't like checking either. We want him to fold his fd that's often better than ours. He's less likely to call on a paired board especially when the top card pairs.

When check we often lose the max when we hit our draw. And when we brick he just bluffs into us and we don't even have a chance to bluff.
I like the logic behind this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AAJTo
Do we actually think this V is going to fold a NFD or overs+FD on the turn?
I don't know for sure...We don't know what goes on in these guys' heads, but I'd say it's pretty likely.

Quote:
Originally Posted by roadtopro
I’d go $35-45 pre as you’re on the button. Respect for raising the flop but why so large? I’d go $115-145. AP ship turn
If I were to raise, it'd be ~$50, but we should never be raising here. J8s isn't a good iso hand, and on top of that, with the players at the table, I'm still most likely going to be looking at a mw flop if I go $50.

Flop 3 bet size is what you want to go vs villain's sizing and board texture.
2/5 Cold 3 Bet Flop With OESFD And We Get A Nightmare Turn Quote

      
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