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2/5: Can someone please analyze the mistakes in this hand? 2/5: Can someone please analyze the mistakes in this hand?

07-06-2019 , 04:06 AM
2/5 super deep, I just sat down with $400, everyone else has $1k+.

HJ reg looking guy opens $20,
I flat ATdd OTB,
BB reg looking guy flats.

Flop ($60): Q96sdc
Check, Check, I stab $40, both call

Turn ($180): 2d
Check, Check, I check

River ($180): Tc
Check, HJ bets $145, Hero folds, BB folds

Flop: Once OR checks, I feel like it’s an ok spot to stab with some backdoors. Once both call, I’m almost done with the hand because I’m not deep enough to barrel.

Turn: If I was deeper, I think I should double barrel here, but given my stack size, I thought it’s better to just take the free card with the NFD vs 2 players, because Qx may not fold. And my T blocks the OESD that could fold to a db. Plus I’d hate being xraised by BB or something.

River: Whiff, gotta fold. What’s the OR repping though? KJ? 87?
2/5: Can someone please analyze the mistakes in this hand? Quote
07-06-2019 , 04:35 AM
Flop is a check here for me. BB's range is still undefined. Most regs know to check to the pfr, so BB can still have TP+. If we stab flop though, turn should be a bet. Buy in full.
2/5: Can someone please analyze the mistakes in this hand? Quote
07-06-2019 , 04:48 AM
Q96 is one of those high-to-middling two-double-gapped flops where almost every hand in everyone's range gets at least a small piece of it.

Ed Miller talks about this in one of his books. He says normal ranges connect with these types of flops broadly but mostly weakly. These weak-fits are hands that can call a single bet on the flop but will fold to a turn bet unless they improve.

For Ed a strong-fit, by contrast, is a hand that can call a bet on this street AND a bet on most cards on the next street with only a few scare cards that'll prevent it calling again.

These X _ _ Y _ _ Z flops, particularly Ace, King or Queen high, give most ranges a lot of weak-fits and many turns will improve many of those flop-weak-fits to turn-weak-fits. Do some thought experiments with various hands like 98s on the flop in hand history, you'll see what Ed means.

Ed's advice is that you shouldn't cbet these flops intending to double barrel unless you're comfortable identifying the suitable rivers for a third barrel. He says that because so many flop-weak-fit hands that would fold a blank turn will pick up just enough equity to call one more bet that if you don't triple barrel you're effectively burning money on your turn bet.

But the turn is the infexion point. The way I read Ed's advice was one and done flop cbet was usually fine on the drier versions of these board types, just don't double barrel without often firing the river too.

So with that all in mind, how's your hand look?

We'll actually you have a decent hand to barrel three streets after its checked to you on the flop. Reasons are fourfold:

1) you have some backdoor equity with the potential for NFD on turn but this also denies some potential turn equity to flop-weak-fits your opponents might have. E.g. 76dd can pick up what it thinks is equity but actually the last thing it wants is to hit the flush on river. More importantly you'll be blocking 76dd's river flush outs should say 2d appear on turn so you know that it is less likely to improve on river sufficient to call a third barrel.

2) you have an Ace thus blocking the turn-two-pairs people could hit with A6/A9 (both would be examples of flop-weak-fits improving to turn-strong-fits i.e. turned straights and 2-pair will call the turn bet and river bets on most run-outs).

3) you hold a Ten which blocks the top end of the lower OESD with 87 (straight on turn is a turn-strong-fit). Your T also blocks various gutshots from making their straights (KJ/J8) one gutshot from being present on flop in the first place (KT) and blocks the JT OESD from existing either and from picking up extra equity with a turned T for pair+OESD. Obviously you also reduce T9's chance of improving to 2-pair too.

4) you don't know it'll come when planning to bluff bet flop but a blank like a 2 on the turn is an excellent card to double barrel, the 2d is even better. That's because there's no way for a 2 to add equity to any flop-weak-fits so you can expect to have decent fold equity on these blank turns. Additionally you block diamonds and pick up extra equity for yourself as described above.


The one fly in the ointment on this runout is despite you blocking the 76 OESD and KJ gutshot the T comes on the river anyway. That's a bummer but it'll happen sometimes. I think you're absolutely right to just fold river.

So I think in the case of the two-double-gapper flop it's arguable that barreling a good turn is more profitable than on other board types and this may often take precedence to ensuring you get to see river with your big draw.

Last edited by Ragequit99; 07-06-2019 at 04:56 AM.
2/5: Can someone please analyze the mistakes in this hand? Quote
07-06-2019 , 05:05 AM
On the river Villain's value is KJ, 87, QT, T9.

I suppose he could thin value against your 9X- with KT/JT but it's unlikely and you couldn't call river even if you knew he was thin valuing these combos because they're outweighed by his value combos and he could even do this with some QJ combos.
2/5: Can someone please analyze the mistakes in this hand? Quote
07-06-2019 , 05:08 AM
Oh yeah, don't forget villains one combo of rivered set with TT
2/5: Can someone please analyze the mistakes in this hand? Quote
07-06-2019 , 05:38 AM
Looking at your stack size: with $380 left on the $60 flop and bearing in mind everything above:

Betting $40 on flop would have been fine if you only got one caller. Then turn pot would have been $140 with $340 effective stacks you could then bet $90 on turn leaving you with $250 on a $320 river. That's enough to barrel V off a pair+FD where the FD bricked or to easily stack someone if they make 2pair+ at the same time you make a flush.

Trouble is, as you said in OP, your stack is small and so it's tight even if you get it heads-up going to turn. As soon as both villains call you're left far too short to effectively triple barrel. If we follow Ed's advice I guess that means checking turn is best as played with your stack size.

However, I think you actually have quite a lot of fold equity on the turn so maybe a PSB or an overbet shove would have been OK. A PSB is effectively all-in and some villains would read it as such. An overbet shove would be 2X pot and could potentially be made to work with a range of top pair+ and NFD/pair+FD here.

I'd probably check turn in hand though myself.

Key is assessing the whole hand in advance from the flop. Then you'd realise that although your hand was a good one for triple barreling this board your stack prevented you doing that in all but the most favourable circumstances so maybe a check would be better.

Another possibility is you realise you can't triple barrel unless it's HU to turn and pot is small as possible and therefore bet only 1/3rd to 1/2 pot on flop with intention of giving up if both call flop but triple barreling if you're HU to turn and get a favourable turn and river card.

Clearly though being full stacked gives you the most flexibility and allows the most profitable lines. If full stacked a big flop bet followed by a big turn bet with plenty in reserve for the third barrel on blank rivers gives you the best chance of folding out all those flop-weak-fits that improve weakly on turn.

Last edited by Ragequit99; 07-06-2019 at 05:44 AM.
2/5: Can someone please analyze the mistakes in this hand? Quote
07-06-2019 , 06:04 AM
Yeah I was 100% double barreling if it went HI, but 3-way with an undefined BB range, I felt really handcuffed especially because of my stack size. Moreover, I’m not really comfortable triple barreling in live games anyway.
2/5: Can someone please analyze the mistakes in this hand? Quote
07-06-2019 , 06:09 AM
1. Thinking this is a super deep hand. For you, it is a 80 BB hand.

2. Flatting pf with ATs. We don't know anything about the villain. In terms of hand strength, ATs can beat about a 18% linear range. That's a slightly tight player from the HJ. Therefore I like a 3bet in this situation. You gain initiative and get him to fold a lot of equity with his weaker hands. If he thinks that AK and JJ are limping hands, then he's going to 4 bet you and you can fold. Calling puts you into Harrington's "long, dark tunnel" where you're never going to know where you stand on an Axx flop.

3. Save your stabs at the pot when you are HU on the flop. Obvious stab is obvious.

4. He's representing on the river Qx. He knows you can't beat it because you would have bet the turn.
2/5: Can someone please analyze the mistakes in this hand? Quote
07-06-2019 , 11:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuantumSurfer
Flop is a check here for me. BB's range is still undefined. Most regs know to check to the pfr, so BB can still have TP+. If we stab flop though, turn should be a bet. Buy in full.


Agree with this. Would prefer a check OTF but as played we pick up a ton of equity on the turn and should continue betting.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
2/5: Can someone please analyze the mistakes in this hand? Quote
07-06-2019 , 12:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
1. Thinking this is a super deep hand. For you, it is a 80 BB hand.

2. Flatting pf with ATs. We don't know anything about the villain. In terms of hand strength, ATs can beat about a 18% linear range. That's a slightly tight player from the HJ. Therefore I like a 3bet in this situation. You gain initiative and get him to fold a lot of equity with his weaker hands. If he thinks that AK and JJ are limping hands, then he's going to 4 bet you and you can fold. Calling puts you into Harrington's "long, dark tunnel" where you're never going to know where you stand on an Axx flop.
Agree except I also don't mind folding pre-flop. I think we can flat if we actually are deep (~200bbs).
2/5: Can someone please analyze the mistakes in this hand? Quote
07-06-2019 , 12:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ralphykid67
Agree except I also don't mind folding pre-flop. I think we can flat if we actually are deep (~200bbs).
If you're folding ATs on the button to a standard raise, what exactly do you play?
2/5: Can someone please analyze the mistakes in this hand? Quote
07-06-2019 , 01:02 PM
I don't see a problem calling with ATs as played. But 3b should be done too.

I almost never stab at this flop. My experience is that stabs at these flops don't result in enough folds to make it worth while.

As played, don't bet the turn, you have a chance to overflush someone OTR.

As played, I probably call OTR. I disagree with Venice, I don't expect the PFR takes this line with Qx very often.
2/5: Can someone please analyze the mistakes in this hand? Quote
07-06-2019 , 01:05 PM
I like 3bet pre, but calling is obviously fine as well.

Flop bet is fine, check it fine.

On the turn check is fine, also shove is pretty good, since I would assume Vs would x/r 2pair+ on the flop with such a wet board, the brick on the turn favors the bettors range so u can really turn up the heat right there and u have good equity when called. The only problem is that your hand is a bit too good to make this play with (I would rather have a weaker draw) because this hand gains a lot of value when u make the nuts on the river and someone else improves to a second-best straight or flush. Sooo all in all I would likely just check it back on the turn and try to realize, just note that it’s not a bad spot for a n overbet shove in similar situations in the future.

Ya on the riv I let it go nh
2/5: Can someone please analyze the mistakes in this hand? Quote
07-06-2019 , 01:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapidator
I don't see a problem calling with ATs as played. But 3b should be done too.

I almost never stab at this flop. My experience is that stabs at these flops don't result in enough folds to make it worth while.

As played, don't bet the turn, you have a chance to overflush someone OTR.

As played, I probably call OTR. I disagree with Venice, I don't expect the PFR takes this line with Qx very often.
What combos of fd gets there OTT?

I agree with the river call, dude is repping T9s and TT, that's 3 value combos, if he got there good for him.
2/5: Can someone please analyze the mistakes in this hand? Quote
07-06-2019 , 01:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by poke4fun
If you're folding ATs on the button to a standard raise, what exactly do you play?


3betting and flatting ATs on BTN are both fine, just don't fold lol.
2/5: Can someone please analyze the mistakes in this hand? Quote
07-06-2019 , 01:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kekeeke
What combos of fd gets there OTT?



I agree with the river call, dude is repping T9s and TT, that's 3 value combos, if he got there good for him.


TT, T9s, 78s, all value. But more importantly what natural bluffs does he have? (He likely would not bet this with JT or T8)
2/5: Can someone please analyze the mistakes in this hand? Quote
07-06-2019 , 02:28 PM
Meh...

I really only see V showing up with TT for value as played. Looks FOS to me, so I call and reload.

As for flushes... Pretty much all flushes are in play from both villains. I don't see how this is even controversial. PFR is opening 200bb deep from the HJ, and x/c otf. The other villain is just a station. Any two suited are possible.

Edit... Sorry, misread the flush question... I said, otr.
2/5: Can someone please analyze the mistakes in this hand? Quote
07-06-2019 , 03:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by djevans


3betting and flatting ATs on BTN are both fine, just don't fold lol.
meh, depending on V I'd auto-muck this and not think twice about it. but generally i like 3b over calling.
2/5: Can someone please analyze the mistakes in this hand? Quote
07-06-2019 , 03:19 PM
What a great turn card to smash. It's even easier to bet because you're shallow. PFR has KJ a ton, not sure why there is any decision to be made otr other than fold. The flop stab is particularly awful if you're not going to bet twice.
2/5: Can someone please analyze the mistakes in this hand? Quote
07-06-2019 , 05:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
What a great turn card to smash. It's even easier to bet because you're shallow. PFR has KJ a ton, not sure why there is any decision to be made otr other than fold. The flop stab is particularly awful if you're not going to bet twice.
agreed. You are playing short stacked, which a lot of people here arent a fan of, but ive had some fun with it in the past. The thing is, you have to use that to your advantage. Shoving the turn is a perfect short stack move; puts pressure on all villains and makes them insecure about their mediocre hands. if you get folds your stack increases decently and if you do get called you still have outs. if you are gonna play short stacked like this, use it as much to your advantage as you can!
2/5: Can someone please analyze the mistakes in this hand? Quote
07-06-2019 , 06:11 PM
Pre call/3! is ok. I would check flop. I don't like a flop stab unless we plan on barreling off more like some have mentioned. Really depends on how wide we think BB is defending and how often he'll be folding which you will know better than anyone else itt. Pfr is going to be capped so I think whether or not we want to barrel here depends mostly on bb. AP river is an easy fold. If you do decide to stab flop and think that barreling often could be good vs these guys I would pay closer attention to the sizing. If you size smaller otf then that will give you more options on later streets.
2/5: Can someone please analyze the mistakes in this hand? Quote
07-06-2019 , 07:27 PM
bet flop, bet turn, ap fold river

going to be leaving a lot of $$$ on the table by checking flop, PFR rarely ever protects their x range and BB is very weak here, you will get called by a lot of worse hands and many good turns to barrel (like here).

PFR usually has 9x/1010-JJ here or some random gutshot

i also 3b pre
2/5: Can someone please analyze the mistakes in this hand? Quote

      
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