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2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much 2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much

05-08-2013 , 01:30 PM
Villain 1 (800) is a middle age fish. Straight forward, easy to play against. Villain 2(820) a pretty straight forward, break even player in his 20s. I cover both.

Villain 1 open limps the hijack, I iso raise the button to 25 w J9 off, villain 2 in the sb reraises to 75, villain 1 calls, I call.

Flop (225) AQ10 rainbow

Villain 2 bets 75, villain 1 folds, I call.

Turn (375) Offsuit K

Villain 2 bets 160, I raise to 500, Villain 2 calls.

River 1,375 10

Villain 2 jams his last 170.

Now it seems like a pretty trivial call at first, getting 8-1 but really I'm not sure. This is live poker, so given the action I'd say he has AA,KK,QQ a good 90% of the time. I don't think he's almost ever outright bluffing, so I'm calling to win half the pot and really only getting 4-1 on a hand I'm losing the vast majority of the time. So looking at it like that maybe it's a pretty easy fold despite the 1,375 in the middle. Thoughts?
2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much Quote
05-08-2013 , 01:42 PM
I think you have to call. AK, AQ and JJ are all at least possible given the action. Once you raised the turn you were committed.

Pre, I think the initial raise is OK, but I often will limp here and try to flop something great. Once you're reraised by the SB, you should fold. J9o isn't doing well against straight forward player's 3-betting range, which I assume is something like JJ+, AK and maybe AQ.
2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much Quote
05-08-2013 , 01:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MIB211
I think you have to call. AK, AQ and JJ are all at least possible given the action. Once you raised the turn you were committed.

Pre, I think the initial raise is OK, but I often will limp here and try to flop something great. Once you're reraised by the SB, you should fold. J9o isn't doing well against straight forward player's 3-betting range, which I assume is something like JJ+, AK and maybe AQ.
I agree with everything stated above.

I really don't like playing J9o almost ever, but if you have reason to believe that V1 is exploitable by isolating like you attempted to do I would rather go with a bigger raise of like 30. When V2 reraises I'm just done with the hand %100. Were crushed by V2s range and V1 may have our draws crushed limp calling like he did.

As played you have to call it off hoping V2 has a big 2 pair hand and doesnt think the 10 hit you. Chances are your beat though.
2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much Quote
05-08-2013 , 02:03 PM
Don't raise the turn and leave 170 behind. Just shove there if you're going to raise. You shouldn't even have this river issue if you had played your hand right.

As played it's a clear call due to the odds he can have Jx as well instead of a boat.
2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much Quote
05-08-2013 , 02:10 PM
You will lose here more then win, but this will be a chop or villain will have two pair enough that you can't fold getting 9-1 on your money. Think of this as the penalty price you pay for failing to get villain all in on turn.

Preflop, fold to V2's raise. A straightforward villain's range crushes you here and stacks are not big enough to play a weakish drawing hand. Even J9s would be vastly better then J9o to call with here because you need to flop really well and that gives more ways.
2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much Quote
05-08-2013 , 02:35 PM
Have to call river, definitely should have shoved turn.
2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much Quote
05-08-2013 , 02:38 PM
What is your villains 3betting range? If it has AK,AQ,AJ and any two broadway cards, it's a call. If he's only doing that with TT+ AK it still is probably a call.

I feel like a live read on how he calls that raise is something really important here. If he's all agonized, it's more likely a set (because what a sick board run out), IMO
2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much Quote
05-08-2013 , 02:50 PM
Call river. Shove turn.
2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much Quote
05-08-2013 , 02:56 PM
Yeah shove turn. Turn is a clear bet sizing mistake. Also don't like calling a 3 bet 3 ways from a straight forward player with J9o. Going to get owned quite often playing this way...
2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much Quote
05-08-2013 , 03:59 PM
I think you should've been aware of his stack size when you made that turn raise. A better play would've been a jam IMO bc he might fold 2pair and sets to your turn jam
2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much Quote
05-08-2013 , 04:12 PM
Why would he want those hands to fold? Turn shove is for value.
2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much Quote
05-08-2013 , 04:26 PM
Yeah I was 9 seat vs 1 seat and he had his chips stacked weird. Should have jammed but alas.

As far as people telling me to fold to the 3bet pre, strongly disagree. I know why you guys fold and realize that most people probably should. But it costs me 50 into 180, in position, against a very narrow range in one spot and a fish in the other. Profitable spot for me imo.

And I still don't know about the river. I'm being quite literal when I say I believe his range is 90% AA, KK, QQ
2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much Quote
05-08-2013 , 05:29 PM
Snap call, AINEC.

How you gonna feel if you don't call and he shows you a chop or air? Or doesn't show at all? Worth way more than 170 for my peace of mind.
2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much Quote
05-08-2013 , 08:01 PM
shove turn. probably folding pre flop
2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much Quote
05-08-2013 , 10:46 PM
This hand is a mess.

Fold pre.

Fold flop.

Shove turn.

Call river.

And I really shouldn't have to explain any of it but here goes.

U are crushed by his 3 bet range so even with position with the spr is too small to justify a call.

Flop is fold because his range is prob TT+, AQ+. This board smashes his range. Even with such a small bet you don't have the odds to call.

Turn is easy shove because of stack sizes.

River is a trivial call due to pot odds.
2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much Quote
05-09-2013 , 08:17 AM
We could debate it all day but even the best player in the world couldn't make calling that 3 bet profitable with those stack sizes. No way no how. You think its profitable for you yet youre making a post about the most trivial spot in the hand on the river which is obviously a call. Do you even know how often you'll flop 2 pr or better? What about the times the caller in between has KJ on this board and you spike an 8 on the turn? Just a cooler? lol. Bad call pre AINEC.
2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much Quote
05-09-2013 , 11:32 AM
Preflop raise is fine,

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pots-For-Sale
We could debate it all day but even the best player in the world couldn't make calling that 3 bet profitable with those stack sizes. No way no how. You think its profitable for you yet youre making a post about the most trivial spot in the hand on the river which is obviously a call. Do you even know how often you'll flop 2 pr or better? What about the times the caller in between has KJ on this board and you spike an 8 on the turn? Just a cooler? lol. Bad call pre AINEC.
+1, calling the 3-bet is not, need to fold here. Only reason to call the 3-bet is if V's are 3-betting light and then playing fit-n-fold post flop. 90% of the time in LLSNL, a 3-bet is exclusively JJ+/AK which absolutely destroys your J9.

Flop call is fine. 75 into 225 with the implied odds you get for binking and shoving make a flat here profitable.

Turn is a clear shove for value. No one, and I mean absolutely no one at 2/5nl is ever folding a set or AK here. They just can't. They will 100% know you have a straight, shuffle their cards, give you the poker stare, say, "Why so much?" and then call you.

River, as played, crying call. AK is still in his range. You simply can't fold getting > 8:1 on your money.
2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much Quote
05-09-2013 , 02:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chinned
This hand is a mess.

Fold pre.

Fold flop.

Shove turn.

Call river.

And I really shouldn't have to explain any of it but here goes.

U are crushed by his 3 bet range so even with position with the spr is too small to justify a call.

Flop is fold because his range is prob TT+, AQ+. This board smashes his range. Even with such a small bet you don't have the odds to call.

Turn is easy shove because of stack sizes.

River is a trivial call due to pot odds.
Lol at folding flop
2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much Quote
05-09-2013 , 02:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pots-For-Sale
We could debate it all day but even the best player in the world couldn't make calling that 3 bet profitable with those stack sizes. No way no how. You think its profitable for you yet youre making a post about the most trivial spot in the hand on the river which is obviously a call. Do you even know how often you'll flop 2 pr or better? What about the times the caller in between has KJ on this board and you spike an 8 on the turn? Just a cooler? lol. Bad call pre AINEC.
I realize the river seems like a trivial spot I'm not stupid. I obviously called. This was more of a theory post because I don't think it's as trivial as it seems on the surface, and I wish the mods wouldn't have moved the thread here. You guys all seem to acknowledge how tight his preflop range is here, we lose outright to AA,KK,QQ. I don't think this player would play JJ this way, I really don't see any other Jacks in his range. He just doesn't play like that. Body language on the turn and the way people play live made it seem super obvious he had a set. Calling with 8-1 is still unprofitable if we don't win 1-8 times. I still agree it's a call, but it's not that trivial
2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much Quote
05-09-2013 , 02:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris
Preflop raise is fine,



+1, calling the 3-bet is not, need to fold here. Only reason to call the 3-bet is if V's are 3-betting light and then playing fit-n-fold post flop. 90% of the time in LLSNL, a 3-bet is exclusively JJ+/AK which absolutely destroys your J9.

Flop call is fine. 75 into 225 with the implied odds you get for binking and shoving make a flat here profitable.

Turn is a clear shove for value. No one, and I mean absolutely no one at 2/5nl is ever folding a set or AK here. They just can't. They will 100% know you have a straight, shuffle their cards, give you the poker stare, say, "Why so much?" and then call you.

River, as played, crying call. AK is still in his range. You simply can't fold getting > 8:1 on your money.
This is a good post. I agree that AK is still in his range just often enough to make this a have to call.
2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much Quote
05-09-2013 , 05:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris
Preflop raise is fine,



+1, calling the 3-bet is not, need to fold here. Only reason to call the 3-bet is if V's are 3-betting light and then playing fit-n-fold post flop. 90% of the time in LLSNL, a 3-bet is exclusively JJ+/AK which absolutely destroys your J9.

Flop call is fine. 75 into 225 with the implied odds you get for binking and shoving make a flat here profitable.

Turn is a clear shove for value. No one, and I mean absolutely no one at 2/5nl is ever folding a set or AK here. They just can't. They will 100% know you have a straight, shuffle their cards, give you the poker stare, say, "Why so much?" and then call you.

River, as played, crying call. AK is still in his range. You simply can't fold getting > 8:1 on your money.
If villain is 3betting light/ has tons of air in his 3 betting range why in the world would you want to flat with J9o? Why not just 4 bet bluff and take the pot down?

Obviously not common at the $5 blind level but once you get up to 5/10+ when people do have a ton more air I never flat in this spot with a hand like this. 4 betting and restealing is a much better play.
2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much Quote
05-09-2013 , 05:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pots-For-Sale
If villain is 3betting light/ has tons of air in his 3 betting range why in the world would you want to flat with J9o? Why not just 4 bet bluff and take the pot down?
I think the deciding factor on whether we 4 bet bluff or flat will be how sticky and readable villain is post flop.

If V is incredibly sticky and aggro post flop then I agree, we should 4-bet bluff if he is 3-betting light.

If V is fairly easy to read post flop and shuts down when he whiffs, then I like a flat since we have position on him and can easily win post flop. This has the added benefit of making us more money (we get an additional c-bet out of villain) and also making us harder to play against long term.
2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much Quote
05-09-2013 , 06:16 PM
Yeah I agree, but if he plays the way you're hoping for post flop then he is not going to be the type to ever be 3 betting light or have any air in his range. Therefore once again making calling unprofitable against such a strong range.

If he is 3 betting light are we just calling hoping that he wiffs AK specifically then floating a flop cbet to hope he shuts down on the turn so we can pick up the pot? Seems pretty spewy to me...

Still think 4 betting/ taking back initiative is hugely more +EV.

Playing like your suggesting even at the $5 level and especially when you get to 5/10 where people are more capable, ect you will be burning money IMO.

I do enjoy the debate though.
2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much Quote
05-09-2013 , 07:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mazjr13
Lol at folding flop
Yeah I misread hand. Thought we had a gutshot.

Calling flop is fine
2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much Quote
05-09-2013 , 07:27 PM
Why would you want to 4bet bluff this hand.

It has no blocker value.

I would much rather 4 bet Ax instead.
2/5 Can I fold river for so little into so much Quote

      
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