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[2/5] Calling large turn bet on paired board vs aggressive player with history [2/5] Calling large turn bet on paired board vs aggressive player with history

08-25-2019 , 01:55 AM
I have history with villain - we were playing four handed for a bit and we played this hand:
I'm UTG and open AJo to $15, and villain OTB makes it $50. Timing wise and posture, really seemed he was 3betting me light so I go $125, he calls. Flop J99 with two hearts, I downbet $80, he calls. Turn 4heart, I check, he bets $185, I call with $300 behind. River 6o, I check, he checks back and shows ATs, no hearts, MHIG.

We get moved to the main game and villain joins us for this hand.

TAG opens UTG to $20, villain from our previous hand flats, I overcall AJ on the button, and one of the blinds calls.

Flop: 33T ($80)
Checks to villain who bets $60, we call, everyone else folds.
Turn: 2 ($200)
He bets $170 with $600 more behind. Against a lot of people I would consider folding here, but not him so I call.
River: A ($540)
He checks, I bet $175..

Mostly interested in turn decision, preflop and flop seem pretty standard
[2/5] Calling large turn bet on paired board vs aggressive player with history Quote
08-25-2019 , 02:22 AM
Easy fold on turn. V has a T or some mid pp. Size of turn bet is too big for you to raise without going all in and I don't like that. If you thought v was making a move you should have raised flop while your hand still had good equity. On turn you must fold.
[2/5] Calling large turn bet on paired board vs aggressive player with history Quote
08-25-2019 , 03:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpinzFTW
Easy fold on turn. V has a T or some mid pp. Size of turn bet is too big for you to raise without going all in and I don't like that. If you thought v was making a move you should have raised flop while your hand still had good equity. On turn you must fold.
If villain has that range we have ~31% equity, in position, with plenty to play. If we give him something like AxTx,KxTx,QxTx,JxTx,9xTx,99,88,77,KsQs,9s8s,7s8s,7 s9s,4s5s,5s6s we have 40% equity.
So 'must fold' seems very strong, and also means we never have flushes OTR
[2/5] Calling large turn bet on paired board vs aggressive player with history Quote
08-25-2019 , 07:08 AM
I know you are not that interested in flop decision, but i think that street can be kind of interesting to be honest.

As played, our villains range have piles of Tx in it that we can put alot of pressure on by raising the flop. Especially the weaker ones like 9-10 or J-10. Sure we have alot of equity either way with our 2 overs and nutflushdraw, but it certainly looks appealing to throw some fold equity into the mix here so we have a chance to win the hand without binking our outs.
[2/5] Calling large turn bet on paired board vs aggressive player with history Quote
08-25-2019 , 07:41 AM
pre and flop look good, folding turn obv horrendous, so many clean outs.

bet bigger otr
[2/5] Calling large turn bet on paired board vs aggressive player with history Quote
08-25-2019 , 11:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eholeing
pre and flop look good, folding turn obv horrendous, so many clean outs.
Disagree we have a lot of clean outs. Board is paired, we could already be drawing dead. J and A have some RIO as JT/AT are his most likely T's. It's going to be tough to get any value OTR. We block the crap out of draws, and V bet into 3 people on this flop. Given this almost full pot bet OTT I think it's a fold.

As for trying to raise flop/turn, this isn't a great bluff spot as we look full of crap. Our only value hands are A3s (2 combos), and *maybe* TT. Bombing the flop/turn can be good if we think villain will just give up with a lot of top pairs that don't want to stack off on this board. But given the dynamic and villain, I'm giving him credit for sniffing out a crappy bluff line.

I'd just fold the turn. As played, I guess the river bet is fine. He probably still bets a 3x OTR, so this smells like a T that knows it can no longer bet for value. A small bet seems appropriate. I'd have gone bigger if a flush card hit.
[2/5] Calling large turn bet on paired board vs aggressive player with history Quote
08-25-2019 , 11:45 PM
Every street seems pretty std to me, id never fold turn here

River seems okay
[2/5] Calling large turn bet on paired board vs aggressive player with history Quote
08-26-2019 , 11:36 AM
ya everything looks fine ish. betting river for any sizing <50% (when opponent still has more chips left) isn't a thing in GTO land but as an exploit it can still be very effective.
[2/5] Calling large turn bet on paired board vs aggressive player with history Quote

      
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