I've been at the table for about an hour now, so take all of the reads with a grain of salt.

The table has been very limpy (moreso than usual), with maybe only 2-3 hands per orbit being raised PF.

Villain ($700): middle aged Asian man. He is limping a ton of hands, saw him raise once, from all positions. Clearly just following the trends of the table.

Hero ($450): as stated, just sat down. However, I have raised 3 hands so far in the past hour as I've gotten pretty good cards to start.

OTTH

2 players limp, Villain limps in MP+2, CO limps, button limps.

Hero: A J

Raises to $35. I think this is a borderline raise. I probably could have just completed, but given how passive the table was, I didn't feel like just completing and trying to play bingo.

Villain calls $35, Button calls $35.

Flop ($120): K 4 2

Hero C-bets for $75

Villain stares at the board. He picks up some chips, and starts measuring out a call. He then starts playing with those chips, thinks for about 45 more seconds, and announces all-in.

Button folds.

Obviously my first thoughts were this is a standard fold, and I was getting ready to muck. However, as I started thinking about it more, the more hands I put him on were bluffs or semi bluffs.

All PP's below KK are not shoving this flop unless the villain is absolutely horrific and is turning his hand into a bluff. I generally don't put stuff like that past people at $1/2, but usually there's a bit more respect at $2/5 that a villain is somewhat more competent. AK would have raised preflop, and I don't see him shoving all other Kx. The K is also on the board, so he's not doing this with some KX top pair with flush draw. The only reasonable shove would be 44 or 22, and even then, it seems like outrageous sizing to shove $340 effective into a $195 pot.

I don't have the A so that puts a ton of AX in his combos. We're pretty much flipping against all of those combos. He also has all suited connectors / one gappers in his range, at which we're a slight 47/53 dog.

This is such a narrow spot even if we're right with the bluff, as we need about 39% equity to call here.

Is hero leveling himself into an awful call?

You've done a lot of work...why not plug that range into poker stove vs your hand

I would include a few more weird one pair hands than you are

I think you could accomplish just as much by c betting $55 as you do by c betting $75 FYI

Good thought process.

I'd fold as As is more than likely doing this, so at best it's a chop. Could even have As2s.

Pre - Starting with 90 bbs, I might complete unless u r ready to reload. 20-25% of stack erosion a good amount of the time.

Flop - I'd go somewhat smaller, $60-$65.

AK does not always raise pf - I'm shocked how often ppl c/c pre with this.

re: raise vs complete with AJo in SB, you already identified that it's a marginal (but not necessarily bad) spot. If you are gonna raise though, go significantly higher. 5 limpers and you are out of position? $35 isn't enough. $55-60 feels a lot better, but never <$50. IP maybe $35 works, but if you're gonna give ppl the opportunity to play when you're OOP, make it an expensive proposition

I want to post a hh here. This just happened a few nights ago.

I have been playing relatively tight, as has villain, who is an middle aged guy.

2/5

I open red AA UTG $15, villain calls UTG+1, rest fold.

Flop ($33) 459

I cbet $20, villain makes it $40, I call.

Turn ($110) 5

I check, villain snap shoves ~$500.

I call bc he never ever has better here obv.

He had quads.

So what have we learned?

I would make it 45 or 50 pre, never ever just completing AJ, don't think this is marginal at all.

I wouldn't c-bet this flop vs 2 players, seems pretty -EV. Don't hate the logic for calling shove but I'd still just shake it off as a stupid thought and quickly fold at the table. Really isn't worth even considering without the J in your hand, your equity when you call and are wrong is going to be really terrible so having the 6% from a BDFD of your own will be huge, as well as blocking an out for him when you're right.

@Ava that hand is literally entirely different, trying to apply anything from it here is just ludicrous.

It is not literally entirely different, unless you mean the literal cards.

The hands are quite similar. An overbet where villain can only have 6-7 strong value hands and in most circumstances would not likely overbet them

Regardless, there are 2 lessons to be learned from my example, and they are the same two ideas one should have in OP's hand

Also, in ops particular hand, we do not want any spades. Having the Js would make this closer to a fold, not a call.

I think raising pre is fine at a passive table that typically limp-folds or folds post flop when they miss.

The flop cbet is good against two villains on a relatively dry board. You should insta-fold to shove. Yeah it's ridiculous and you're ahead sometimes. However, when you're behind, you're often massively behind. You're crushed when you add a couple set combos to all other coin-flip combos. If the best you can come up with is slightly ahead or crushed, you should fold.

OP you need to just look at what you think his range is and how your hand is doing against it.

Against a reasonable limp/call range of sets, NFDs, and combo draws (As2s-AsTs, 22, 44, 5s3s, 5s6s) we only have 27.33% equity, not even close to the 39% we need to call. I'm folding to the shove without much thought.

He needs to have tonssss of non-nut, non-combo flush draws in his range for this to be a profitable call, which seems pretty optimistic. And like Avaritia showed in his example we really cannot be discounting sets from villains range. Many villains will overjam sets here on a FD board hoping you have AK/AA and trying to get the money in ASAP.

The hands are just not similar at all, in almost any way. Yours begins with a tight V calling a tight players UTG raise from UTG+1 while OP's has an extremely loose V overlimping in mid-late position then calling a raise with a history of limping a ton of hands. Their ranges here are super different from the get go, your V is going to have a ton less draws while having every PP.

OP's action is on the flop where draws are going to have much more equity. Moreover, OP's villain is going to perceive a much better chance to blow OP off a c-bet (especially if OP is c-betting too much, which he clearly is) and probably would prefer to jam with his draws so he can't be forced to fold OTT where he would have almost no fold equity if OP barreled but clearly a lot of fold equity and pot equity if he jams now.

And it's 5x pot vs a spot where AI is the standard size if you're raising.

It makes much, much more sense for OP's villain to have draws than yours does.

With all that said AJ is just a terrible call here regardless. A hand like 77 or 88 with is probably more correct to take this line and go bet/call flop lighter with.

Grunch

I've run into this scenario a few times (I cbet a 2tone, 1 Broadway card board, V overbet ships over top of cbet), every time I've called they've had middle or bottom set. GG

I mean, you have Ahigh. Congrats if you picked off the bluff, but is it really that +EV in the long run? Just muck it and wait for a better soot

When people think about their hand it usually means they have something. Impulsiveness is often the sign of a bluff, where their only thought process was "I want to win". Just put him on a set and be done with it.