If we give V2
1 combo of Q5s
1 combo of T5s
1 combo of TT
3 combos of 55
2 combos of QT
and we give V1 a range of AQ,KQ,QJ
and we assume nobody folds, we have the equity almost on the nose.
as soon as we add even 1 combo of KJ to V2 or add some non-Qx to V1 we should gii

I prob fold pre- but I'm a nit. Limping I fine, raising IMO is a little spewy in passive games everyone is going to call and unless you hit big it is hard to tell where you are in a hand against 4 others.

As played, I sigh GII otf (too many combos that we beat to not)

I think he plays 2p and 55 exactly the same and completing the SB after 5 limps makes them all equally likely(with more 2p combos possible).

I'm calling here to rep a draw for V1 so he for sure gets his money in on the turn after V2 shoves. It seems like a shove now gives V1 two reasons to fold top pair.

I don't think it's a given that V1 calls a shove by hero and a call by V2.

On the other hand, I wouldn't be shocked if V1 has 55 and is upset because he thinks he ran into set over set.

Comedy results would be getting it in on the flop or turn and everyone turns over QT at showdown.

I know a player at MDL who thinks he's good and a x/r from him means he has a monster. This is probably the sizing he'd choose too. He wouldn't want action on his two pairs, so they would be x/r jam. If we were playing him, it's a fold, because at best, we're chopping.

Some thoughts:

I feel like we are setting ourself up to be really exploited if we fold our top two on this board. What i am thinking is that villain can literally check-raise us off any hand weaker than a flopped set if we fold top two here. Now, i am not saying that this villain is good enough to exploit that fact if we are infact that unbalanced towards monsters regarding our continuerange, but its something to consider. He can just completely own us with check-raising an open ender, any other two pair combos (wish is possible due to completing SB) or a hand like AQ wich we have crushed. Just because we are basically folding everything here if we are letting top two go in the muck.

Also the only realistic set villain can have here is bottom set, he showing up with set of 10 or Q here is so unlikely due to preflop action that i almost want to discount it. But people slowplay occasionally of course and it happens, but its extremely rare.

Edit: I am also never worried about Gambool fish, he basically never have you beat due to description and your read that he is annoyed by the raise and then flats it. Those kind of reactions is very very difficult to fake and i find those kind of live reads pretty accurate when you have experience observing it (as i feel OP have). His range are filled with all kind of draws, one pair hands and overpairs.

Conclusion: i feel pretty good about going broke here unless i have a good solid read that villain raising us on the flop is an ubernit.

If V2 is paying any attention to the whale, then he is isolating with way worse than bottom set. Assuming V1 has all Qx and some Tx, then he can raise for value with Q9+ maybe Q8.

I would just keep clicking the call button until all your chips are in the middle. There aren't a ton of action killers to fear, and the money will be going in on the turn any way.

Shoving is also fine, but you may lose value from V2's worst Qx hands, and V1 may find a fold.

V2 has only been here for a few minutes. While he likely realizes that V1 is playing too many hands, he has not yet seen the overbet lead with TP trick from him. This lead is huge, and my flat of it should be scary to him. I think many of you are ranging him way too wide.

FWIW, I think he raises QQ and AQ pre pretty much always. Not so sure about TT. QT and 55 he always completes SB. Q5 and 5T are heavily discounted, imo. He's trying to be grindery, and I think he usually folds these pre, even in a 5-way limped pot. Suited fours' range def the most realistic ITT, imo.

IMO if youre sure he is always raising AQ pre Garick, that has to be the same regarding TT also yes?

So if he has us beat here its by a set of 55, thats pretty much it. In my mind thats a pretty narrow range to find a fold against for 100 BB and a gambool fish in the hand as well.

Some of these wannabe grinder types see TT as a set mining hand, some see it as a premium. They pretty much all hate playing big aces multi-way OOP and raise them comically large, ime.

Definitely a tough spot. A lot of times in these spots it helps me to think about the progression of investment decisions made by a particular V. In this instance, V2 has gone from investing $5 (or $3 from the SB if you want to really be specific) to now investing $200 after facing an overbet and a call on a dry board.

From a good player or a nittier player this is almost always indicative of 2pr+ but our read on V2 is that he thinks he's good while he is actually not. Could he be playing AQ/KQ this way? Possibly but since he's only been here a few minutes it's hard to know that for sure (I'm assuming you gathered most of the info in your description after this hand took place?).

I agree that we should avoid making decisions based solely on the "<100bb GII" mentality against a new player but with limited reads I can't fold top two in this spot. In other words, I always assume that all of my unknown V's are on the looser/splashier side until they prove otherwise - that they are capable of the discipline required to play tight.

For those of thinking V2 is raising KJ here, his sizing seems a bit too small for a semibluff as it will usually be called by at least one person thus defeating the primary objective of the semi-bluff - to win the pot here and now (plus its just a terrible time to attempt a semi-bluff being OOP while facing an overbet and a flat on a dry board).

No, all the info in the description came before the hand. He sat down and I did my usual "Welcome to the table. I'm Garick, what's your name? Where are you from, <name>?" routine and he told me all of the stuff in the description within 2 minutes of sitting down.

how many times have we all seen inexperienced players raise with a hand like TT/AQ, and then the flop comes that they whiffed and completely has them baffled what to do? if your V is a wanna be grinder, I'd say he's more likely to not raise middle strength hands because he's a wanna be so:

1) he's going to have some clue about position. he'll have awful position the whole hand in a big pot. smaller pots are easier to get away from when you get overcarded/whiff
2) he may have some clue about his perceived range. and by this i mean, he's going to think everyone puts him on AK
3) he probably knows he's not getting 5 folds, so when he whiffs on a 732 board with AQ he doesnt have to continue.
4) he probably isnt battle tested enough to use chips as ammo rather than $$$. when the board comes AJ4 and he has TT as a PFR, he doesnt want to bet/fold/or call.

i'd also say there is a better than average chance he would limp most hands from the SB because lol pot odds, including Q5/T5. something i've seen countless people do is complete because so many callers before them they feel compelled to and maybe they can hit their hand this one time


worst case scenario: V1 grows a brain and folds OTT, you're essentially calling 470 to win 855. 1.82:1, or 35% equity

Board: 5TQ
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
MP1*****2.72%***2.04%***0.68%*{ Q9s-Q6s, Q4s-Q2s, Q9o-Q6o, Q4o-Q2o }
BU*****62.00%**55.03%***6.97%*{ QsTc }
SB*****35.28%**28.76%***6.52%*{ QQ, TT, 55, QTs, Q5s, T5s, QTo, Q5o, T5o }

easily a call down in this scenario


best case is V1 calls down also (granted, he would have a stronger range). in which case its calling 470 to win 1100, 2.34:1 or 29.9% equity

Board: 5TQ
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
MP1*****9.81%***8.39%***1.42%*{ QQ, TT, 55, AQs, KQs, Q2s+, AQo, KQo, Q2o+ }
BU*****56.49%**49.35%***7.15%*{ QsTc }
SB*****33.70%**27.66%***6.04%*{ QQ, TT, 55, QTs, Q5s, T5s, QTo, Q5o, T5o }

still a fairly easy call down

V2 dropping down the Q5o/T5o combos from 5 combos each to 2:

Board: 5TQ
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
MP1*****9.23%***8.07%***1.16%*{ QQ, TT, 55, AQs, KQs, Q2s+, AQo, KQo, Q2o+ }
BU*****46.30%**36.96%***9.34%*{ QsTc }
SB*****44.47%**35.95%***8.51%*{ QQ, TT, 55, QTs, Q5s, T5s, QTo, Qh5s, Qh5c, Ts5h, Ts5c }

still good

V2 dropping all the Q5o/T5o combos:

Board: 5TQ
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
MP1*****8.46%***7.62%***0.84%*{ QQ, TT, 55, AQs, KQs, Q2s+, AQo, KQo, Q2o+ }
BU*****32.81%**20.56%**12.25%*{ QsTc }
SB*****58.73%**46.93%**11.79%*{ QQ, TT, 55, QTs, Q5s, T5s, QTo }

we're still getting enough to call if V1 sticks around, which OP thinks he will.

i think a strong case can be made that this is a hand we should be going to showdown with

I didn't want to say it before...

Gambool guy doesn't open for 2x pot in this spot with a set.

I'm not discounting anybody any big pp except QQ and TT. ETA: I mean, QQ,TT are already discounted because we block.

V2 can have sets, but also 2p and KK+.

Some sample EVs (assuming always all gii)...

Range V1........................Range V2......................EV
Qx(but no 2pair),AJ,KJ......QT,TT,55...................... -80
Qx(but no 2pair),AJ,KJ......QT,TT,55,KJ-2 combos..... 45
Qx(but no 2pair),AJ,KJ......QT,TT,55,KJ.................. 345
Qx(but no 2pair),AJ,KJ......QT,TT,55,Q5,T5............. 425
Qx(but no 2pair),AJ,KJ......QT,TT,55,AA,KK............. 330

Qx(but no 2pair),AJ,KJ......QT,TT,55,Q5,T5............. 425
Qx(but no 2pair),AJ,KJ......QT,TT,55,Q5s,T5s............. 130

I wouldn't be shocked if he does. I need more data on his variations in bet-sizing on the flop.

D'oh, thanks for correcting my V numbers, got them mixed up because V2 was in SB so acting first, which my brain changed to V1.

That's great you were able to get so much info in 2 minutes (I really need to engage/inquire more like this...). That definitely pushes the decision more towards a fold, but no matter what someone tells me I'll still gonna need to see them play a few hands before I can accurately begin to range. So going with johnny's range analysis above, I'd call and expect a wide enough range to make it profitable long term.

But man, that $5 --> $200 investment theory I mentioned above screams fold.

Results:

Maybe V2's new career will work out after all!

Depending on how effective I see a squeeze being, I'm either raising or folding. You just can't out play 6 people so position is of minimal value when you call. Note that if you had raised pf, V1 would have 3bet and you would have gotten away losing much less than you did by trying to see a "cheap" flop.

What makes you think he'd 3-bet when he overlimped 3 limpers? TBQH, I'm overlimping very wide here with this V, as he's punting stacks with TP (and now overpairs, I see) and I'm getting to see flops very cheap IP against him.

The fact that either V showed up with AA here kinda proves that folding is bad here.

I guess the discussion could be: How deep do you need to be such that absolute hand strength isn't good enough to just gii.

I can't see how you'd fold. 55 is just 3 combos. If there are players who don't understand relative hand value - and there are - V2 is in that camp. Honestly, I really don't think this spot is that close. Given stack sizes, possible ranges, definitely combinatorics, and the fact you also have 4 outs twice vs. what I think are the rare times someone has 55, I think it's a pretty easy shove.

If you think he's l/c with AA pf with 6 people in the pot, he'd have to be completely terrible. He's going to raise the **** out of you and you easily fold saving yourself $50. Instead you play a huge RIO hand, hit your 2% chance hand and still feel like have to fold after playing as passively as possible. I'd much rather play 86o than QTo on the button in that situation.