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2/5 bottom set turn/river help 2/5 bottom set turn/river help

07-28-2014 , 02:55 AM
Just a note: the game begins 1/3 and turns into 2/5 later in the evening. This hand was played at the end of the game, which is why we're 4 handed.

Hero: Early 20s, playing tag all night. Looser on the CO/Btn.

Villain: Passive, calling station grandma. The best white equivalent of Big Mama I've ever seen.

Effective stacks are ~450

Hero is UTG with 66 (does not have 6d): raises to 15.
Button folds
Villain in the sb calls
BB folds.

Flop: (Pot 35) Kd Qd 6s
Villain checks. Hero bets 25. Villain calls

Turn: (Pot 85) Kd Qd 6s Js Villain leads for 60. Hero?

I'll post the end result later. Looking for the best line for this spot. Thanks.

Last edited by RobertPaulson3; 07-28-2014 at 02:57 AM. Reason: Forgot to add stack sizes
2/5 bottom set turn/river help Quote
07-28-2014 , 02:58 AM
$200/call
2/5 bottom set turn/river help Quote
07-28-2014 , 03:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapidator
$200/call
Sounds good
2/5 bottom set turn/river help Quote
07-28-2014 , 04:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapidator
$200/call
Agree with this. It's unlikely you are up against a higher set, unless villain is the type that never raises preflop. Besides, even if villain is limping AA preflop, there are more 2 pair combos in their range. You also have decent equity in case villain has AT or T9.
2/5 bottom set turn/river help Quote
07-28-2014 , 02:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tucco
Agree with this. It's unlikely you are up against a higher set, unless villain is the type that never raises preflop. Besides, even if villain is limping AA preflop, there are more 2 pair combos in their range. You also have decent equity in case villain has AT or T9.
In over 5 hours of play, she never raised preflop. Thanks for the advice everyone.
2/5 bottom set turn/river help Quote
07-28-2014 , 02:57 PM
There are 32 combos of straights and 27 total of KQ, KJ, QJ. I'd probably just call down.
2/5 bottom set turn/river help Quote
07-28-2014 , 03:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Triplerangemerge22
There are 32 combos of straights and 27 total of KQ, KJ, QJ. I'd probably just call down.
You have wayyyyy too many combos of straights here. Big Momma's House isn't calling 9T often enough on that flop. This thread was over at "200/call".
2/5 bottom set turn/river help Quote
07-28-2014 , 04:38 PM
Passive calling station grandma?

a) old woman
b) passive calling station

If she really is as described, I would expect her range with this line to be JQ, JK, A10, 9-10 JJ, QQ, KK. Not so much KQ because I would expect her to either lead or check/raise to protect her hand. Tough to say without history.

I'd really prefer a call on the turn because her range is so strong, I think raising turn is on the wrong side of thin value. I'm also calling nearly all rivers or raising if she bets small. If she checks the river, i'm betting 200 since I think we will be on the better side of thin at that point since her range starts to skew more towards 2 pair based on tendencies.
2/5 bottom set turn/river help Quote
07-30-2014 , 02:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SunChips
Passive calling station grandma?

a) old woman
b) passive calling station

If she really is as described, I would expect her range with this line to be JQ, JK, A10, 9-10 JJ, QQ, KK. Not so much KQ because I would expect her to either lead or check/raise to protect her hand. Tough to say without history.

I'd really prefer a call on the turn because her range is so strong, I think raising turn is on the wrong side of thin value. I'm also calling nearly all rivers or raising if she bets small. If she checks the river, i'm betting 200 since I think we will be on the better side of thin at that point since her range starts to skew more towards 2 pair based on tendencies.
Interesting analysis. I ended up calling turn. She led a blank river for $100, and after contemplating raising for a bit, I called and she flipped over KQ. I felt nitty/passive afterwards but the turn lead screamed straight to me.
2/5 bottom set turn/river help Quote
07-30-2014 , 10:45 AM
9 combos of KQ, 9 combos of KJ, 9 Combos of JQ. 16 Combos of A10, 16 Combos of 9-10, 3 combos of each JJ, QQ, KK.

27 Combos that you beat
41 Combos that you don't beat.

Even if we take out 75% of the 9-10s (even calling stations don't like to play low gutters on 2 flush boards sometimes) that still leaves 27 combos you beat and 29 that you dont. Against this type of player without any specific reads other than 'passive calling station', I stand by call/call or call/bet.
2/5 bottom set turn/river help Quote
07-30-2014 , 11:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SunChips
9 combos of KQ, 9 combos of KJ, 9 Combos of JQ. 16 Combos of A10, 16 Combos of 9-10, 3 combos of each JJ, QQ, KK.

27 Combos that you beat
41 Combos that you don't beat.

Even if we take out 75% of the 9-10s (even calling stations don't like to play low gutters on 2 flush boards sometimes) that still leaves 27 combos you beat and 29 that you dont. Against this type of player without any specific reads other than 'passive calling station', I stand by call/call or call/bet.
I can't buy V calling that flop with JJ. I think that with <100bbs and playing 4 handed we absolutely have to get our stack in on this board.
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07-30-2014 , 12:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by clampoker
I can't buy V calling that flop with JJ. I think that with <100bbs and playing 4 handed we absolutely have to get our stack in on this board.
You may be right, however when I hear passive calling station grandma, I think 'will peel a street with any pair.'

I think it's very close between raise and call. Sitting behind a computer screen i'd probably err on the side of call. (This coming from a guy who usually errs on the side of getting it in). In person, if I had any reason to suspect that straights and JJ should be weighted less based on tendencies, I agree with getting it in.
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07-30-2014 , 12:15 PM
Grunch.

Hmm.... I mean we aren't all that deep in this hand, so I'm not super worried about stacking off here, but granny leading out is kinda scary. I'm thinking this is most likely two pair with a J or a straight... I doubt she leads turn with a draw or whatever.

Any other reads? Is she going the whole way with QJ/KJ here? I might just call here OTT and see what she does OTR. Bet if checked to. Kinda a tricky spot though since were not really sure if we want the board to pair or not.
2/5 bottom set turn/river help Quote
07-30-2014 , 12:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SunChips
You may be right, however when I hear passive calling station grandma, I think 'will peel a street with any pair.'

I think it's very close between raise and call. Sitting behind a computer screen i'd probably err on the side of call. (This coming from a guy who usually errs on the side of getting it in). In person, if I had any reason to suspect that straights and JJ should be weighted less based on tendencies, I agree with getting it in.
This is pretty much what I'm thinking.
2/5 bottom set turn/river help Quote
07-30-2014 , 12:22 PM
Quite a strange line here by V .. ala Johnny Chan by calling Flop and donking Turn. It's not really pot control with this board and at that bet size so I would think she has a hand and is making sure that you don't draw the River for free. So you have to range her from 2 pair and up since she (a calling station) is putting chips into the pot on her own. That makes it tougher to raise here and perhaps miss out on boating up if you choose to fold to a shove ... which you can still do here. You also have to consider that a diamond could kill any River action by putting her into c/f mode OOP.

Stacks seems a bit small for late in the session but that makes me lead towards a weak looking raise on the Turn to better position the pot going to the River. Have you chased any flushes in this same way?

Not so sure she calls the Flop with 'only' a straight draw so I am leading towards 2 pair (and if it's JJ, then ... poker) and I want to raise against this board with bottom set since the board pairing on the River may counterfiet us also ... and we get no chips when the flush hits either.

The board, the stack sizes and a caller 'on the line' want me to raise here to $130-140. You very well could've made more money by just calling IP and letting her lead River, but I wouldn't feel bad about 'not' raising the River as you wont make enough to make up for the times when you are beat IMO. GL
2/5 bottom set turn/river help Quote
07-30-2014 , 03:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by answer20
Quite a strange line here by V .. ala Johnny Chan by calling Flop and donking Turn. It's not really pot control with this board and at that bet size so I would think she has a hand and is making sure that you don't draw the River for free. So you have to range her from 2 pair and up since she (a calling station) is putting chips into the pot on her own. That makes it tougher to raise here and perhaps miss out on boating up if you choose to fold to a shove ... which you can still do here. You also have to consider that a diamond could kill any River action by putting her into c/f mode OOP.

Stacks seems a bit small for late in the session but that makes me lead towards a weak looking raise on the Turn to better position the pot going to the River. Have you chased any flushes in this same way?

Not so sure she calls the Flop with 'only' a straight draw so I am leading towards 2 pair (and if it's JJ, then ... poker) and I want to raise against this board with bottom set since the board pairing on the River may counterfiet us also ... and we get no chips when the flush hits either.

The board, the stack sizes and a caller 'on the line' want me to raise here to $130-140. You very well could've made more money by just calling IP and letting her lead River, but I wouldn't feel bad about 'not' raising the River as you wont make enough to make up for the times when you are beat IMO. GL

It's a weird game. Starts 1/3 and turns into 2/5 after ~2 hours. I started 2/5 with 200, was down to 60 at one point, and battled back up to 450. Hence the small stack size. Grandma was in for between 1200-1500 at this point.

In hours of play I never saw her lead once, let alone c/c lead turn. I watched her call down three streets with kings full. A pure passive station.

Against an aggro player who routinely gets it in light, I'm trying to get it in on the turn. With her I just didn't know. Can we chalk this up to a villain dependent situation, and to curtail my line between calling and raising turn based on their tendencies. Haven't played many situations (live at least) where villain c/c leads turn. Wasn't David Benyamine famous for that back in the day?
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