2/5 Bottom Set Facing Massive Flop Shove - Page 2 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

This happens alot. So much so it is the second most interesting thing I like to think about in regards to live poker: villains unwittingly merging their hands.

I take the stance that most villains really don't bluff that much. But even the nittiest of nits overplays their hands on a regular basis.

I got bet bet jammed 150bbs on by one of the tightest ladies in our room the other night on

Q

I have a ton of history with her and literally have never seen her bluff. I had KQs and wanted to fold. Like, I was certain I was being a station. I called bc lol i had trips and she confidently rolled over red AA. What's really important and neat to think about is she never, ever does this with AK. Not even A

I remember similar situation in a limped pot. I had 96o on BB.

Flop comes A66, I bet flop, V calls, I bet turn, V calls, I bet river, V jams.

board was like A6632

V is a nit old guy. I was so puke feeling that I'm beat. But I called because of the pot odds.

V roll over 67 and told me oh I thought you have an A.

Even nitty can overplay their hands. That justify many calls against them mathematically.

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10-26-2016 , 03:12 PM

#27

OvertlySexual

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 2,091

Isn't OP's hand, a classic example of levels of thinking? Hero was between levels 2 and 3 whereas villain was at level 1 and unwittingly outwitted hero.

This is a hand where no decent level 2 player going for value would jam in that spot. If they did, it would have to be AA or at worse KK. A level 1 does jam for value. A level 4 might jam as a bluff.

So I guess this is a reminder to think about this stuff when we play.

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10-26-2016 , 03:14 PM

#28

Jamitontheriver

adept

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,137

Quote:

Originally Posted by Koko the munkey

A flop check raise on a dry board turns your hand face-up to a good player. It may work against average local donks but good players tread extremely carefully after the OOP flop CR in a multiway pot.

Trust me I get the concept. Earlier in the same session I had 45 on button in a raised pot with a flop of AQ3r. A fish donk led and the PFR, a good reg raised him. I then three bet the reg and all folded. That works as a bluff because a reg assumes I can never have bluffs there. This is a very different situation against rec players who I assume don't have a fold button until they prove otherwise.

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10-26-2016 , 03:19 PM

#29

PositiveEV

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 456

Quote:

Originally Posted by SunChips

This.

Math rules the world. Call it off.

Though I think we can reduce the AK combos by a bit since people might be less likely to get in 350bb without the nuts on the flop. However I also think we can add them back because a snap ship is more indicative of AK rather than AA/KK and AK can like the nuts here to him.

Math does rule but reads can change whether it's correct/incorrect to follow the rules. I like to think this is what makes the game so interesting.

At what point, BB wise, does the read overtake the math? 400bb? 500bb? Thoughts. At what point does it not become a cooler anymore?

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10-26-2016 , 03:21 PM

#30

Jamitontheriver

adept

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,137

Quote:

Originally Posted by OvertlySexual

I think that's right. At some point absolute hand strength has to trump relative hand strength and we just have to go with a hand that is super strong even if we can see losing to a lot of hands.

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10-27-2016 , 11:02 AM

#31

SunChips

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 1,442

Quote:

Originally Posted by PositiveEV

I don't think the reads ever overtake the math. They just become another variable in the equation. I'm not saying I can do complicated EV equations at the table with different parts of the equation weighted to factor in live reads, but I do think it's possible. Kind of like you said, the artsy part of poker comes from knowing how much weight to give the reads.

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10-27-2016 , 08:24 PM

#32

Sol Reader

The Situation

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 9,380

Probably time to get it in, but I'm more unsure about the QQ hand tbh.

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10-28-2016 , 12:54 AM

#33

Maskk

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 2,083

I'm not folding sets to rec players without a montone or 1 card straight board. They can overplay hands (as discussed) and have a chance of going to Hellmuthian trap mode for AAA or KKK (as mentioned in excellent first response).
With AK smack in the middle of his range, and a tiny, but real, possibility of pure spazz out (AQ), I'm gii and hoping its not AAA or KKK. Higher vol spot than I expect with a set.

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10-28-2016 , 01:43 AM

#34

Jamitontheriver

adept

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,137

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sol Reader

Probably time to get it in, but I'm more unsure about the QQ hand tbh.

My read was bad on the QQ hand. I thought the snap overshove on turn was weakness but it was strength. So it goes.

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10-28-2016 , 01:53 AM

#35

ss1

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 601

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jamitontheriver

My read was bad on the QQ hand. I thought the snap overshove on turn was weakness but it was strength. So it goes.

I hear you, bro. I get outflopped by donks and pay to their freak overbets a lot.

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10-28-2016 , 11:18 AM

#36

setmined

enthusiast

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 77

Quote:

Originally Posted by Avaritia

^how you should aproch live poker! Imho...

This is gold!

Also one of my favorite variables in live poker, when level 1 out plays level 3(ish). The fact that they never TRULY merge is what makes certain situations soooooo profitable.

Very curious what THE most interesting thing you think about is wrt live poker???