Hero bought for 750 and in 2 hours has been incredibly card dead and has taken a hand to showdown. Table is playing fast, and chips are moving on nearly every street. I'm stuck between two big stacks who seem to pick their spots, and are not scared of putting chips in the middle. Villain to my direct left is an early 30s white male who seems to be solid. Hes been opening a lot of limped pots in position and cbetting in appropriate situations. I have seen him overplay top pair and bet very thin against a few players.

Hero:750 BB
Villain: 1300 UTG

Villain raises to $25 UTG, MP calls, CO calls,BTN calls, Hero calls in B B with 5d5h

Pot:120
Flop: Kd 9d 5s

Hero bets 70, villain 1 calls, mp folds, co folds, BTN folds

Pot:260
Turn: Qh

Hero bets 175, villain ponders for a minute asks me what I have left, and then raises me all in.

Hero?

I'm not folding bottom set in this spot.

V's range is: AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQdd, KQ, JTdd

against this range, we should have the equity to call (I don't have poker stove on this computer so can't verify )

In your description you said
so adding everything up, this is a crying call. Think we are good here like 60%ish of the time

dgi's range looks pretty close, add in 99, and I would personally take JT out of a solid UTG range (but it's possible, so maybe keeping in one combo like dgi did makes sense).

Allow me...

1,672 games 0.001 secs 1,672,000 games/sec

Board: Kd 9d 5s Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.589% 28.59% 00.00% 478 0.00 { QQ+, 99, AKs, AdQd, KQs, JdTd, AKo, KQo }
Hand 1: 71.411% 71.41% 00.00% 1194 0.00 { 5d5h }

We're killing him.

Interested in knowing what your plan was before firing on the turn.

I think your hand is pretty face up once you donk into four opponents. Against a good opponent who has been picking his spots well, I think you allow him to play perfectly against you.

If you're going to donk you need to make a PSB.

I don't buy that he's ever playing AA or AK this way against our Hero who has played one hand in 2 hours. I think Villain's range looks something like KK, 99, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd and JdTd. Against that range we're a 27% to 73% dog. Add in KQ and QQ and it jumps to nearly a coinflip but I can't see a competent opponent calling with these hand on the flop, especially with 3 opponents left to act. Maybe I'm giving the Villain too much credit though.

The pot is $1090 after he shoves and we have to call $480. We need 30.5% equity to call and aren't quite there. It's a fold for me (with PokerStove handy, in game it's a sick spot).

Easy call if he has been overplaying top pair and would A-A as well. The math says better than 2-to-1 you are good, and against a straight you still have outs to improve. Only a bigger set kills you.

That being said, if he is a player that picks his spots, I can see him shoving his set knowing you have a hand, because you appear to have been playing pretty tight since you have been card dead and are at your starting stack at an active table two hours in. So we could be in trouble.

This is a spot I let my instincts take over, because I don't make decisions based on math very often. However, if the math is in your favor and you feel like it's just as likely he pushes big with a set or the straight as much as A-K, A-A, 2 pair, or any pair and diamond draw, you still make the call. You are getting better than 2-to-1 on a situation that you are 2.5-to-1 favorite against his whole range.

Now as Bullits pointed out as well, I think he is competent enough to know you aren't leading the flop and turn light, so he has to know you have a hand, thus I doubt he shoves with even a combo draw. His hand should be made here, so I think it is actually an instinctive fold, and find a better spot to get your money back. This is why I don't like playing math, because it can get you into so much trouble.

Have to call here but I'm assuming we end up seeing 99 for villain. Only this could be a fold would be if we had some crazy killer read.

Snap call. With a higher set he raises the flop, if he by some miracle has a straight you should win his money at some point for raising with that trash.

Worst case based on the action he has a pair plus draw but is dead to a board pair and any non draw card.

I think any KK or 99 would raise the donk bet since there is a flush draw on board. It looks to me like KQ with his read on Villian.

except for QQ with his tank of the donk bet probably thinking it was a flush draw donk out but I don't think we can fold it at this point anyway.

When Villain shoves I have 4 hands I think he would take his line with and I weighed heavily towards KQs. With 260 BBs I don't see him folding pre and he wasn't the type to limp call oop. I think he flats the flop in this spot 80% of the time and he would raise on the turn a good deal. Q10dd/JJ10dd would likey flat the flop and not mind another caller. J10dd may just flat again with nuts and redraw, but he has to know I'm AK minimum and thinks I'll call. Q10dd would play the flop the same and he may feel the only way he gets paid on a diamond is to push with pair+sd+fd. However, I'm fairly sure UTG villain will raise with these less often than KQs. I've seen a lot of people flat top set, especially when it's the nuts on the flop, just because it may be optimal doesn't mean I don't think it's possible here but the least likely of the 4 hands. Off chance villain shows AQdd/A10dd/AJdd/99/QQ...as for the question asked earlier my plan was to bet/call any non diamond and bet/try to use the force on any diamond. 170 on the turn leaves me a 3/4 PSB for the river and gives villian a chance to call 480 to win 1095 still.

Hero calls
Pot:1575
River: 8d

I'm finding it tough to fold here. Even if we give Villain a pretty damn tight value range we still are a slight favorite and I believe his range could be wider here. I'm calling it off.

If he has AA he's raising you on the flop with three other players and that board. So I rule out AA. If he has KK it's less likely you have a K and his shove isn't getting him any value. So I rule out KK. If he has QQ he's in a bad spot to call on the flop. Possible, I suppose, but I think he's folding it. So I'm ruling out QQ. 99 is possible, but I still think this guy is going to raise you with something like that, this board and three players still to act. I think he calls the flop with AQdd but he's not shoving like that on the turn, not this guy (I think, but you'd have a better read). I can see him calling KQ here on the flop. I can also see him calling with JTdd, obviously, but it's awfully specific. The thing that worries me is that I don't think he's asking what you have left because he's wondering if he can push you off a hand. I think he's pondering whether he can get you to stick all of your chips in the middle. That just makes me more confident that this is either KQ or JTdd (not much help narrowing things down, lol). I'd call. I realize he might have JTdd, but I think more often than not you have him beat.

Lol at villain ever having AA/AK here.

Also don't like the flop donk as you have the nut relative position on an UTG opener on a semi drawy flop. Allow dead money to get in the middle.

I'm going for a check/raise on the flop. We have four people with position on us, and relative position to the preflop raiser. His UTG opening range is going to be betting on this board a lot, and even if he check/gives up, there are three people behind him who may take a stab at it after seeing UTG slow down. If the flop checks through, the donk-bet isn't getting paid anyway. On a draw-heavy board, I'm going to take the line that gets as many bets in as possible before the river. c/r flop, ship turn imo.

As played, it's a call. Even if villain's range is as tight as KQ+, you have enough equity.

pretty standard call here IMO.
V's hand looks like KQ here 95% of the time.
If he hit hard there, he's raising because of all the players to the flop on such a coordinated board.
Looks like he just flats OTF to not bloat the pot and gives himself room to fold if the board gets worse, but then when he hits 2p OTT, he ships it.

Calllllllllll