Interesting hand I played recently, gonna hold off on what I did and think about it for now, would like to hear unbiased opinions.
2/5 € NL, I believe 8-handed. 3 massive fish on the table to my right and left. Villain is across the table, appears competent and rather tight, has not been playing many hands or shown anything out of line, has large headphones around the neck but does not use them, I guess early 30s.
Around 1.5-2h into the session, I have not played any large pot vs. villain before. My image is probably pretty solid too, I'm mainly playing the spazzy fish, I'm playing more hands than villain though, and I think I have shown one medium sized bluff to induce action from the donators.

Stacks both 600-700 ish.
PF: EP raises to 15
Hero (HJ) calls with 66
Villain (BB) calls
Flop (47€): A86r
EP checks
Hero bets 30
BB calls
EP folds
Turn (107 €): 7, still r
BB checks
Hero bets 55 €
BB raises to 125 €
Hero calls
River (357 €): 8
BB bets 155 €
Hero?

V probably has a straight. I would shove.

We are getting 3.3:1 on our call. Never even considering folding for that price.

1.5 to 2 hours is a sample space of roughly 50 hands, not nearly enough to call V a mega nit and assign him a super nutted range. I can't see many straights in Vs range, since I can't imagine him floating the flop oop with a guttie in a multiway pot. 86, A8, and 88 make a bit of sense. Despite such a small sample size, I would make a pretty chicken call since I don't see us really getting called by worse if we raise, plus raising here turns our hand face up.

I think it's a call and not a shove.

The only likely straight the tight V in BB will have is ~T9s, and that's 4 combos.

Maybe 54s is possible, but discount it to maybe 2 combos.

Depending on suits, A8s and 87s are ~4 combos total. Quads is 1 combo.

And there are at least 1-2 combos of other possibilities (some of 77, 86s).

Villain has ~400 behind, and I'm not convinced he even calls a shove with a straight.

Not sure I see value in a shove, so I call.

Of course, he's super strong. The c/c, c/r turn line is classically a monster, and we think he's pretty tight.

Call. You beat two 98s combos. You only lose to a few 87s or A8s combos (the total is unclear because we don't know the exact suits). ~3.5:1 odds are more than good enough

Eddie, I'm not sure V ever c/c flop and c/r turn with 98.

I think it's pretty unlikely that V would c/r turn with two pair, especially 78. When people c/r a connected 3 straight board they usually have a straight. His bet sizing on the river seems small for a boat, usually boat goes bigger and it's hard to make quads.

Yeah, I definitely thought his river bet sizing was a little light.

And your observation generally about the 3 straight board is good.

His range includes very few combos. It's very hard to make quads. But here, I think quads is > x% of his range, where x% is an unusually high number (~10%?) given he is *always* value betting, fairly polarized (straights+), and his value range has very few combos, unless, of course, he might actually call 16 T9 combos pre-flop and often c/c the flop with a gut shot. If that was the case, river is indeed a snap shove.

But if he might not do any of that, it's a lot closer. It's possible he doesn't even peel flop with all gut shots.

Without that read... and I'm sensing that's not our read... I think I'm making a nitty call.

But that said, perhaps I am underestimating the # of T9 combos that show up AND call a shove.

easy shove, there is not enough info on him to nit it up here.

I think his range given his actions is 2 pair (A7,A8,A6,87), 9T and some 88. the smallish bet size could indicate a value bet with a FH since the board texture counterfeits a lot of our 2 pair hands. Or it could be a blocker bet with a straight IMO. IMO it's villain depending if I think he can call a shove here with worse but generally I would say Call.

Chips!

I call... I don't think I can fold a boat here but it's tough. You say villain is a nit so I don't think he has any straights as they wouldn't call the flop bet. I discount A8 as that should be a fold from BB in my opinion... Based on your description of villain I'd put him on pp or suited connectors. I'm definitely not shoving here though.

Crying call. V bet less than half pot on the river, he's looking for value. He's clearly strong. He called a raise pre flop from the blinds. He called a flop bet. He c/r the turn, and then he led river, and his sizing indicates he wants called.
If he's nitty, we're not going to be called by worse hands often enough to make raising profitable. And, this does feel like a big ace or A8. Maybe 86 or A6.

So we know V is strong, but we don't know what he thinks is strong on this board. He might think that AK is a monster here. It's very doubtful he has a straight.

And, if I was in this hand, and it was raised pre, then there was a decent sized flop bet, I'd discount all straights. So, in my mind, V can easily check/raise all two pair hands on the turn, as well as AK, maybe AQ. V does not put H on a straight, so he's raising two pair and big aces on the turn with impunity.

We're getting about 2.5 to 1 to call, and we have a full house. I think the odds are there to call, targeting hands like AK, AQ. I don't think V has very many straights in his range at all. I do think he has a lot of full houses in his range, and that raising is lighting money on fire.

I quibble a bit with your statement: I discount A8 as that shoud be a fold from BB in my opinion.

Be careful projecting what you think optimal play is onto opponents. Original poster didn't state whether or not the EP raiser was one of the fish or a decent player. He did state that V was competent. Given that his call closes the action, stacks are relatively deep, and that he might be up against one of the fish, I'd put A8s squarely in his range. There are only four combos of A8s preflop, and post flop, given that it's a rainbow board, only 2 combos of A8s remain, but I think that that is definitely part of his range.
While I agree with you that defending the BB with A8s is probably -EV in this spot, it's a very logical holding for V. I personally make the mistake sometimes of thinking that my opponents play a little better than they do. Even competent, slightly nitty Vs will defend the blind against a raise with hands like A8s sometimes.

Op mentioned villain was competent and tight which is why I assumed he would fold A8s from the blind but you are right that some villains would defend with that hand. A follow up question would be if he does show A8 do we change our profile of the player? Maybe I'm too nitty but I don't consider Someone playing A8 from the blinds a tight player.

Folding A8s from the blinds getting a great price would be really nitty. I agree with 1.5-2h being a LOL sample size so that one needs to be careful with the tendencies observed.

Good to see that quite a few were thinking along the same lines that I did so that I was not completely out of my mind considering all options. Against a better known nit I def think one can seriously consider folding here. If you def know he wouldnt call with a gutshot OOP, and would not overplay any lesser hand what could he have?

I was quite lost with this hand OTR bcos I just didnt think it was very likely V would call with a lone gutshot OOP there, and I def didnt think it's highly unlikely any half-decent guy would play any non-bluff lesser hand like that. Maybe CR the turn with some two pair, although that seems ambitious on that board, but not vbet the river unimproved.

Also, I think basically all the hands that beat me were still in V's range, 77 should probably fold the flop, but not anymore than T9. So I thought the only hand that could possibly call me if I shove was the remote possibility of a str8, so I elected to just call.

Turns out he had exactly that, T9s, that somehow decided to stay along with a gutshot OOP OTF. That hand has me bothered me ever since, maybe that was a significant mistake to just call there. There were another potentially easy ~60 BB out there because hey, its hard to beat a boat, and there are so many more combos of straights out there than there are hands that beat me.

Whether it would have been +EV to shove really boils down to how likely he would have been to call with a straight. V commented after the hand, when I just called, he thought he was ahead for sure.

Definitely an interesting hand! I'm glad to hear you won and I'm also happy reading everyone's opinion as that's how I'm trying to improve my game... Maybe I am too nitty folding A8s from the blinds but I'm glad to hear other opinions too

I call, but I expect A8s a lot of the time.. I dont see much of any other hands that take this line except a T9s that decided to stick around on the flop.

This is the kind of hand where its important to account for spaz factor when constructing a range. No bluffs make sense here, but theres probably some in his range.