Villain is an old man, has been playing tight preflop, not putting in much money postflop. Has yet to 3bet till this hand.
Hero: Young guy, sat down recently, just won a large hand bluffing two streets with a gutshot+fd in position when checked to by the preflop raiser and backdooring two pair, I overbet river and got called by an overpair.
$950 effective
I raise A
K
UTG to $25, villain 3bets me to $55 from MP, folds back to me and I call.
Flop: J
T
T
($115)
I check, villain quickly bets $100, I call
His flop bet is very large for the board texture, and we can probably drop the hand right here. However, two overcards + gutshot + nut no pair, I'd rather continue with AK here then QQ a decent % of the time (villain does not have any non set/quads Js or Ts in his range). I glanced at my watch and we're in the first half of the face, so we called.
Turn: 8
($315)
I check, villain bets $100 fairly quickly with a slight hitch, as if he wasn't sure if he should
I raise to $250, villain calls
I don't expect villain to fold any hand we lose to here, however I expect him to realize how strong this min-ish raise is and fold to our river bet a whole lot. At this point I range him at TT+, maybe AQ/AK which he folds to the check/raise on the turn.
River: 8
($815)
I go all in for $500