This hand happened a while ago but I'm still wondering if it was a decent play with minimal reads or lucky spew.

Local card room, standard mix of players. Hero sat down less than an orbit ago. 2/5 500max.


V1 (2k) : He's the biggest stack, looks like late 20s guy. Not a reg, so I think he's just here to watch the game on tv and play some cards. In the few hands I've seen him in, he strikes me as a thinking type who's scared money once deep. Raises bigger with vulnerable hands pre, will donk post trying to take down pots or make a laydown to aggression. Normal sizing with nuttier hands.

Hero (460) : Recently table changed, forgot to top off. Early 20s sipping a beer. Only hand I played so far I raised pre and took down blinds and a couple limps.


Hand:

V1 in MP makes it 40
Hero two seats to the left in HJ makes it 100 with TT
All else fold
V calls

(Average sizing has been 20-30, his overbet makes me think he's got AK, 22-99, but never JJ+)

Flop (200) - AJQ ss

V tanks for 30 seconds donks 75
Hero asks how much the bet was, raises to 170


His flop tank/bet gave me two thoughts:
1. Small sizing, but I think his range is leaning towards AK rather than smaller PPs we are dominating.
2. Given his small sizing and my reads on him, it seems like he's in b/f mode. I feel like given my 3b he's ranging me on JJ+ and probably having flopped a set. It just felt like he knows he should bet, but wants to be able to comfortably make a tough laydown.

For my raise my thoughts are:
1. He seems like a thinking player. Even if he has AK, facing a PF 3b and flop raise on a wet board that should hit most of my range pre he is capable of making a laydown.
2. As stated in his description, he seems more focused on not losing. So I think if I make a smaller raise that looks more like I want a call I can get him to fold.
3. If he calls, I'm praying for a K or spade and most likely checking back the turn.

Thoughts on my my line and thinking appreciated.

I don't think he will fold AK/AT here, so I don't like it.

But if your read is that he can lay down top pair, and you want to go with it then sure, the raise is fine.
I think of he calls the flop, we need to shut down on non K turn, non spade turn turn cards, as he's not folding.

We can bluff spades ott, and value bet small on Kx turn cards.

Total spew. Everything about this hand is spew. His range is super strong and you still 3bet him with TT, that's bad. Then you bomb a flop that smashes his range. oh nahhhhhhhh, I can't cosign this one. There's no way you are going to make money if you make a habit of playing like this.....

flat pre, fold flop

sucks but you can't do anything else

I might even just fold pre, he made it 40 with no limpers?

Why does the big raise make you think AK or 22-99? This is usually how people play JJ and TT

Why can he have AK but not AQ?

Why are we 3betting?

he's too strong

effective stacks are our $460

he has already committed about 25% of that

he's not folding

and we are way behind IMO

Thanks for the thoughts so far. A little response.

I don't bluff too often, and I agree this hand was pretty spew. Generally speaking I would prefer Flatting pre to setmine.

I don't give him credit for JJ+ due to my read that he overbets when he doesn't have PPs. In this case it really felt like AK or smaller pairs, but now that it's been brought up I should probably include AT+ in his range. I've seen people that play TT+ this way, I was fairly certain he wasn't one of them.

One reason I 3b him is for information. If my read is off and he shows up with QQ+, he's definitely putting in a 4b. He might raise me with JJ, but probably closer to Flatting with them. Another is I have position and want to use it post by taking initiative, and possibly as a result repping a stronger range than I have.

As far as raising the flop, I feel it's a spot where I have to raise or fold, but def not call. Again this assumes my read is not off, but in his shoes he was 3b pre and raised on the flop: even with AK I would find it difficult to think TPTK is good here.

I might have a simple style and I know I pass slight +EV edges... But still I ask:

Why are we doing all of this ? There HAS to be better spots to pull a complex bluff.

This is very true, and I wish I could give you an answer. It was just one of those hands.

I would tend to discount any reads you have seeing as in your initial post you mention you have only been at the table for an orbit or two and I believe you stated the guy was not a regular (no significant history, if any).

It seems super nitty, but getting involved here with TT as shallow as you are is pretty high variance. If the guy had been opening often I actually would prefer 3 betting bigger intending to call off (140-160) or just folding pre. I think we get more folds pre from hands with decent equity (suited Broadway hands) and against a range of AQ+, JJ+ we have an okay price to call anyway.

As played, again not sure what you hope to accomplish with this sizing. I'm guessing this is a raise fold. If you range him on big aces, and small pp pre, which of those groups is sinking this flop. I don't think 22-99 does this on aqj very often, if ever. So now we are trying to get him to fold the top of his range, which he likely has, basically with a min raise in a 3 bet pot when he is presumably up a buy in or two.

Everything to me kinda makes this feel like the wrong time for this move. Good for you if it worked, but in general I think this is a pretty ambitious play and I think the small sizing twice puts us in a tough spot, especially pre flop sizing.

Nice read. W his range at at+ fold flop
Or find a spot to bluff ott
Pre is fine

EDIT: fitz mentions we got our reads super fast

Trying to get an unknown player to fold top pair or better on this board is not a good idea. I think you can safely fold here. I would 3-bet bigger pre flop if you think V is scared money, I would be 3-betting to around 150.

Just fold the flop. If you had AK+ here are you really making that ridiculously small raise? No, you're probably just going to shove flop with all the dead money out there. Unless you are perceived as an ultra nit that only 3b AA and plays it this way, V isn't folding Ax and he's probably not leading the flop with KQ/KJ.

Spew! 3bet pre is fine with the right reads but this is a terrible flop for you. You really trying to bluff someone off AK here when pot is this big? because that's a great way to lose money unless up against a nit

With an open raise to $40 I think pre is closer to a fold or call decision rather than a call or raise.

Postflop is obv spew without very specific reads. Need to be way deeper to even think about making V fold TP.

Yeah I'm inclined to go with you guys on this one. Textbook case of FPS with a side of spew.

In case people are wondering:
He tanks and folds AKo face up. I got lucky with my read, luckier that he folded.

Merry Christmas.