2-5 nl
Hero tag 26 asian just sat down new table 10mins ago $500
V loose bad mid 20s asian been losing a few decent sized pots in a row now. Havent seen him bluff but he looks capable. $400

Utg limp
Utg1 limp
Utg3 Villian limp
Hero sb kq makes it $45
Utg calls
Villian calls
Rest fold

Pot $135
A A 3 rainbow
Hero cbets $55
Utg folds
Villian raises to $155 and has 200 back

Anybody like a shove here?
Risking $300 to win $345, need him to fold a little under 50% if the time.
Think his range probably looks like 33% trip aces, 33% pocket pair, 33% bluff
Im thinking its pretty unlikely hes raising trip aces on such a dry board. We also have blockers to ak/aq if that matters, and we have the nut unpaired hand, in case he decides to spazz call with some small pair or gutshot were still live.

After he puts in 1/2 of his stack, it seems unlikely that he'll fold often enough to make it EV to shove.

Yeah good point venice

Can I ask what the point of raising pre flop is?

As played I don't really think he's folding

Shoving isn't really that bad, especially if our read is that he doesn't have Ax that often.

Our shove is most definitely +EV versus a pocket pair. When villain calls with pocket 7s, we've risked $300 to win $890, which requires about 33.7% equity. Our actual equity versus pocket 7s is 28.7%. So we only need a tiny bit of fold equity to make our shove profitable versus a pocket pair.


I'm not saying I love this shove, but it certainly isn't as suicidal as some people might think.

My thought process exactly

Bad math + bad ranging + wishful thinking = Spew.

just giving up here

Bad math? Where?

Bad ranging? Debatable. Do most players raise with trip aces on a dry board when the preflop raiser cbets into them? I would argue most players raise with trip aaa in that spot less than 50% of the time. If thats the case shoving is at worst neutral ev.

what % of the time are you giving villain pocket 3s?

Obviously a very small % due to combinatorics, much less likely than trips. Its not negligible obviously, but we can just lump that in with his trips range and id argue it would still be less than 50% of his flop raise range total.

Think of it this way, when most llsnl villians raise a cbet on AA3 rainbow, do you think they have the goods over 50% of the time? If so fold, if no shove. I think when villains have the goods here they will tend to slowplay about 60-70% of the time if not more. And obviously if he has some kind of underpair "raising to see where hes at" were actually close to neutral ev even if he decides to call our shove as dayu explained above. That was my thought process.

Vs this guy this is a std shove. Bad Asian gambly types are often making a play in this spot and folding often. No way described villain plays an Ax this way ever. And his sizing indicates to me he's folding.

Yeah my guts were screaming "shove!" But my nuts on the other hand....

super spew imo. I'm not seeing LLSNL shortstacking V's put 1/2 their stack in on the flop and folding often enough to make this play anything close to profitable. Unless you have some history with V or have seen him do this and fold in similar situations anything other than a fold here is spew.

i think the way you described V, loose and bad, he can very easily be raising with a rag A and not having any idea why he is doing it. i just dont think he is folding.

Again, I think we need to look at the math before we just say, "V isn't folding, therefore this is spew."

V doesn't have to fold very often to make this profitable (assuming his range is a lot of non Ax hands)