Quote:
Originally Posted by Viral25
I overbet quite a bit, and in my experience, betting more than ~1.5x pot is rarely correct. You can plot a chart with the odds our opponents gets vs our betsize and you'll see that chart will flatten around the 1.3x mark. Betting significantly more than that is usually just risking unnecessary amounts of money.
I also agree with posters above to barrel turn. The turncard doesn't improve our actual equity, but it likely gets us more folds than say, the 7. It also helps us set up a more reasonable 3rd barrel river shove sizing
Had I read stack correctly I definitely would've sized to around 200. I wonder, though, if 200 looks more bluffy to recs than a jam. Like maybe he just calls it off with QT for 200 because maybe Im bluffing, but folds to a jam because it's too big of a bet to risk it. I dont have a big enough sample to know either way.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lalaLove
Doesn’t stand out to me as a slam dunk overbet spot. Might be slightly profitable, but surely high variance. You don’t need to get looked up that often for this to be a horrendously -ev play.
I’m sure it’s possible that you can show up with value taking this line, but unless villain is aware of that it doesn’t matter. This line in general will look like bs to the majority of Recs you encounter and some will hero you for sure. Not to mention he’s got an auto call there sometimes with QJ possibly AK that he played passively.
I’ve used overbets quite a bit in low stakes live games, and usually I find that they work best after building some history with the table and creating a dynamic. Go for the super juicy spots, not these high risk marginal ones. Incorrect use of overbets will seriously hurt your w/r.
In the games Ive been playing people have been massively overfolding against overbets. That might be because Im quite tight preflop so they dont realize that Im a monkey postflop, and think Im never bluffing. Ive even had recs fold the equivalent of QJ in this spot to me when overbetting, but again, I have a small sample of overbetting in these games. Appreciate the response!
Quote:
Originally Posted by BIoodRose
Which value hands do you play the same way here?
There are many value hands that you might want to psb, but specifically, which value hand do you 2.5 psb here?
If I was going to 2.5x for value it would be with AT or JJ here, I think. I guess I might have some T9 that doesnt bet the turn, but it's rare. Hands that dont block the top 2 pairs. Maybe only have 3-4 combos of those hands in this line, assuming I actually ever end up jamming with those hands. Im definitely going to be unbalanced in this spot, but that's mostly accounting for me thinking that the general population has a bad check range that can rarely call a jam.