Hero: Been playing somewhat tight. Table has been on the tighter side
Villain: Just sat down. I only know that he's not a reg, but no other reads.
Effective Stacks 500

Preflop: MP, who is racking up, limps, hero raises 98hh to 25 from button, villain in SB calls, limper calls.

Flop ($80): Qc6s3h, checks to hero who bets 45, SB calls, limper folds. Over half the deck gives me a draw or a pair on the turn, and my general plan is to barrel when I pick up equity.

Turn ($170): Kd. Checks through.
River ($170): Jh, Villain checks, and Hero jams for $415. I actually misread stack sizes and thought he had 2x pot, not 2.5x pot, but regardless, is this bluff spew or reasonable? Theoretically, I don't know if it's right to have a jam sizing here, but I can definitely have value in the form of some combos of KK, QQ, JJ, or AT that didnt bet turn. 98 is basically my worst hand, although I could have 97 or 87 here too. From an exploitative standpoint, I think peoples' checking ranges are terrible in general, and I think the best hand he's going to have here is AQ.

I think pre, flop, and turn are pretty standard with this particular combo.

I don't mind the river jam. Like you said, he rarely has a strong hand so we can really exploit here by jamming for this size. I definitely would have liked this a lot more if the bet is 1.5-2x pot here since I think that does the same job, but in this spot leaving .5 pot behind would be awkward so I don't mind this sizing.

I think it's unnecessarily large. I mean the hands you are trying to fold out are like QT, 77, A6 type hands.

I'd much prefer a turn barrel and pot river than a check turn and shove river line.
Anyways as played I think $200 does just fine with what you are trying to accomplish. I mean there is the non-zero chance villain had AT, KJ, QJ so you save some money in those instances.

Why didn’t you just bet the turn instead?

I have a bunch of hands that have equity on the turn like JT or 78dd that I'd rather bet those over a hand that doesn't have any equity, like mine. That's my thought process in general, at least.

I overbet quite a bit, and in my experience, betting more than ~1.5x pot is rarely correct. You can plot a chart with the odds our opponents gets vs our betsize and you'll see that chart will flatten around the 1.3x mark. Betting significantly more than that is usually just risking unnecessary amounts of money.

I also agree with posters above to barrel turn. The turncard doesn't improve our actual equity, but it likely gets us more folds than say, the 7. It also helps us set up a more reasonable 3rd barrel river shove sizing

This may be true, but if you’re planning to barrel a bunch of cards that give you more equity but don’t change the board much or scare villain’s Qx/JJ-99 type hands then you might as well bet the nut card for your c-bet bluff range.

It’s just really hard for villain to continue on this turn facing a second barrel.

Doesn’t stand out to me as a slam dunk overbet spot. Might be slightly profitable, but surely high variance. You don’t need to get looked up that often for this to be a horrendously -ev play.

I’m sure it’s possible that you can show up with value taking this line, but unless villain is aware of that it doesn’t matter. This line in general will look like bs to the majority of Recs you encounter and some will hero you for sure. Not to mention he’s got an auto call there sometimes with QJ possibly AK that he played passively.

I’ve used overbets quite a bit in low stakes live games, and usually I find that they work best after building some history with the table and creating a dynamic. Go for the super juicy spots, not these high risk marginal ones. Incorrect use of overbets will seriously hurt your w/r.

Which value hands do you play the same way here?

There are many value hands that you might want to psb, but specifically, which value hand do you 2.5 psb here?

Had I read stack correctly I definitely would've sized to around 200. I wonder, though, if 200 looks more bluffy to recs than a jam. Like maybe he just calls it off with QT for 200 because maybe Im bluffing, but folds to a jam because it's too big of a bet to risk it. I dont have a big enough sample to know either way.

In the games Ive been playing people have been massively overfolding against overbets. That might be because Im quite tight preflop so they dont realize that Im a monkey postflop, and think Im never bluffing. Ive even had recs fold the equivalent of QJ in this spot to me when overbetting, but again, I have a small sample of overbetting in these games. Appreciate the response!

If I was going to 2.5x for value it would be with AT or JJ here, I think. I guess I might have some T9 that doesnt bet the turn, but it's rare. Hands that dont block the top 2 pairs. Maybe only have 3-4 combos of those hands in this line, assuming I actually ever end up jamming with those hands. Im definitely going to be unbalanced in this spot, but that's mostly accounting for me thinking that the general population has a bad check range that can rarely call a jam.

+1000

Also, I hate the river shove. I can't think of one single value hand that I would do this with after raise pre/c-bet/CHECK TURN. That line just doesn't make any sense.