I had an odd hand recently that makes me wonder about poker theory when you have a relatively new image.

The hand went like this.

2/5 blinds with 500 stacks

I open for 25 on the button with Tc, 8c. Only big blind calls. (52)

Flop comes 2s, 3c, 9s. He bets 20 and I call. (92)

Turn comes 8d. He bets 175...

This made me think of the saying, "Strength is weakness, and weakness is strength." He was staring me down hard, which I have learned often means a bluff. But then again, this same guy also stared me down when he had a big hand and won a big pot against me.

I wasn't playing many hands that night. He might have thought that I was timid and afraid to play for big money.

But he might have had a monster, was trying to make it look like a bluff, and was trying to tilt me into calling after my previous big loss to him.




This guy's play looks stupid on the surface. And it would be if he did it regularly. But I wonder if this kind of thing could actually be a very cunning play to make with air (when used only against a sane, rational, preferably timid opponent who hasn't seen you do it before.) As long as I fold more than 2/3 of the time, this is outright profitable for him. And if I did play into this, it seems like I would have to go all in, making it even harder for me to play. 2 pair+ is a pretty small part of my range.

I play against a lot of different people because I am a traveling blackjack counter who is trying to learn poker, so I can still have something profitable to do for the night whenever I get backed off from the blackjack pit. (Maybe I can just switch to poker full time if I can get the hang of this game.)

Since I have a new image so often, I wonder if I could utilize plays like this to take advantage of my constantly new image.

Either this play exploits others, or there should be some way I am able to exploit him for making a bad play. Which is it?

It's just a bad play. Risking too much as a bluff, losing too much value if he has a hand.

Awful play except with a nutty hand against extreme fish who can't fold.

Agree that this terrible from your V, mainly due to him being OOP and donk betting into the PF raiser. In a vacuum, I don't think overbetting the pot as a bluff is a bad play against certain opponents who won't put significant money into a pot when their hand is capped to one-pair. It all depends on the reads you have on a V and their tendencies.

Let's focus on the important things:

1) You raised 5x BB on the BTN to win 1.5x BB. This is completely unnecessary. Raising to $15 accomplishes the same thing and keeps the SPR larger for a speculative hand like T8s.

2) You called a flop donk bet with nothing but an overcard + BDSD + BDFD. This is a classic raise or fold spot.

Here's what really happened in this hand:

Villain bet the flop even though you raised to try and "find out where he's at". He has some kind of pair and he assumes you will raise him if you have a better pair, this is what he would do afterall. He doesnt like checking because he knows you could just cbet with ace high and essentially bluff him, or you could check your Ace high and hit on the turn for free, so this is his solution to that dilemma. Bet now and get a reaction out of you. It's terrible but very standard among live fish.

Now his sudden huge bet on the turn probably means his hand improved significantly to the point that he is now confident with it. He also knows you just called him and there's a draw out there, so he's paranoid about you hitting on him. Now his bet is designed to make you fold so he doesnt lose the hand. Again this is terrible but it's how fish think. He probably hit 2 pair with 98 or even 88 or perhaps he had the flush draw and now has a pair to go with it too, something like A8s.

That whole "staring you down" thing is not a sign of weakness in my experience, it's actually a sign of great strength. He's not trying to intimidate you, he's studying you. He has a big hand and his attention is focused squarely on you and what you are about to do. It's like a "deer in headlights" kind of thing. Typically when players are disinterested in their hand they find other things to occupy their attention. They stare off into space, watch tv, surf the internet, whatever. Looking someone in the eye generally makes people uncomfortable and nervous, the fact that he has overcome all of these psychological barriers means he is not nervous or uncomfortable, but instead is actually rather confident.

Btw your flop call was horrendous.

This. Smaller button open.

And I'm raising this flop against that tiny donk


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Raise Flop.

Just fold turn

You might be thinking too much into it. He could easily have just made up his mind that he has the best hand when you only called the flop and he just wants to take it down therefore make you fold out your draws with a ridiculous bet. It could easily be k9s or A9 type of hand.

From my experience when my opponent stares another down after making a strong bet with money still behind to play its many time a STRONG made hand but not the nuts. Their wondering if your going to raise them at which point they'll have "a decision"...a lot of times i believe thats what the incessant staring means...as if they stare at you REALLY hard they can suss out the correct decision. Even though we all know the decision to stack off here is already made.

Couldn't agree more. I'd absolutely toss in a small raise and prepare to triple barrel on a flop like that.

OP, it's very simple. Assuming his river sizing will always be a shove if he bets river, if villain plays any strategy OTHER than the following, he can be exploited:

Villain's turn bet range consists of ~40% very strong value hands that beat overpairs and ~60% bluffs with outs. If villain gets shoved on, he calls at least ~34% of his range (so folding all his bluffs with outs is fine as he'll still hit the 34% mark w/ his very strong value hands alone). If villain's bet gets called, he shoves the river 60% of the time with a range of 72% very strong value hands that beat overpairs, 28% bluffs. 40% of the time, villain check/folds river with some of his bluffs.

If hero plays a strategy OTHER than the following, hero can be exploited:

If having no raise range, call the turn at least 40% of the time (bumped up from 34% to account for flatting giving his bluffs a free card to draw out). If having a raising range, call or raising at least 34% of the time (where the amount it must be increased is proportional to hero's call vs raise ratio). If hero calls turn, call the river shove if villain bets at least 61% of the time.

As played, villain's overbet is actually pretty solid since you should mostly be raising strong made hands on the flop since it's wet. From villain's POV, your range is capped at one pair. If hero folds turn over 60-66% of the time, villain beats hero in the long term by playing a balanced strategy. And villain beats hero even more long term if villain never check/folds turn and always bets with 100% of his range. Hero will fold turn over 60-66% of the time if he is unwilling to call turn with 1010 or JJ, or strong 9-X hands.

Overbetting is a fine strategy against capped ranges, or spots where my range is much stronger than my opponent's, that I'm trying to work into my game. And when you overbet, you are allowed to have a much larger % of your range be bluffs. V's turn bet range for 2x pot here should be 60% bluffs to be balanced.