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Old 03-18-2019, 11:33 AM   #1
c0rnBr34d
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2/5 Bluff catch river x/r with a set on gross board?

I am not Hero in this hand but thought it was interesting given frequent comments here that if you never fold a set it is probably not terrible.

Hero is active MAG who rarely limps but PFR over 20%, doesn't seem to be be mostly in late position either. Very high cbet %, often barrels vs flat calls.

V is also MAG with PFR < 15%, usually in position and can get either sticky or aggressive post may be V dependent.

OTTH:
Hero limps 55 UTG+1 in decent game where most pots are raised but 3 bets are fairly rare. I suspect he's set mining. MP call, BUT call, V in BB checks. Very rare limped pot, the only one I remember in a 6 hour session.

Flop ($20) - 6 5 3
V leads for $15, Hero raises to $50, V pauses then calls.

Turn ($120) - 6 5 3 Q
V x, H $75, V calls

River ($270) - 6 5 3 Q 4
V x, H $105, V $305, Hero?

Hero tanks for about 2 mins, is disgusted, mutters about "every time I have a set". Finally finds a call. How do we range V here? I agree V's line is suspicious but this call seems very optimistic. Does the value pricing that makes this a "sigh call" or is this just frustrated spew?
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Old 03-18-2019, 11:46 AM   #2
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Re: 2/5 Bluff catch river x/r with a set on gross board?

why not x back river?

on this run out , betting for value seems too optimistic bc hands that you beat like 2P won't even be able to call
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Old 03-18-2019, 11:48 AM   #3
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Re: 2/5 Bluff catch river x/r with a set on gross board?

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Originally Posted by tmo1120 View Post
why not x back river?

on this run out , betting for value seems too optimistic bc hands that you beat like 2P won't even be able to call
Good, question. I guess he was going for thin value or repping a flush? I wasn't Hero. Was more interested in ranging V and evaluating Hero's call.
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Old 03-18-2019, 11:53 AM   #4
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Re: 2/5 Bluff catch river x/r with a set on gross board?

well it is a limped pot and this guy checked in the BB

so his range is very wide, could easily have 7X here , 2X would most likely just call

some flushes , Hero has 5s so not too many flush combos, it looks like 7X and made flushes bc bluffing on this run out is just very unlikely , especially given the line hero took

but tbh we should be focused on taking the best line , which I think would be to x back this river
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Old 03-18-2019, 12:15 PM   #5
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Re: 2/5 Bluff catch river x/r with a set on gross board?

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Originally Posted by tmo1120 View Post
well it is a limped pot and this guy checked in the BB

so his range is very wide, could easily have 7X here , 2X would most likely just call

some flushes , Hero has 5s so not too many flush combos, it looks like 7X and made flushes bc bluffing on this run out is just very unlikely , especially given the line hero took

but tbh we should be focused on taking the best line , which I think would be to x back this river
Which 7x lead flop and can call turn though? Obv 74 can, As7x?, 77 should be raising pre. Would think 67 should fold turn. So here's the best I could do:

Any two spades in limped pot BB could lead flop, x/c turn, suspicious to x/r river but possible. Not sure how to count all these combos. Given action I'll take total spade combos and cut them in half since combos like AJss+, KQss, etc should be raising and the line didn't seem to rep a flush or go for max value on river. There are 45 combos of spades so lets exclude Ax, Kx, Jx and round down to 20 value combos that chose a weird line.

24, 26, 74, 76 (half combos since this should turn imo), 78: excluding spades this is a TON more value combos (35-ish? since 26 and 67 shouldn't make it to river).

Trying to find bluffs: As6x, As4x? 8 combos...
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Old 03-18-2019, 12:16 PM   #6
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Re: 2/5 Bluff catch river x/r with a set on gross board?

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Originally Posted by MAGAHat View Post
Reasons to bet:
1) Get called by worse hands
2) Get better hands to fold

Neither applies on this river. Check back.
You guys are missing the point. I agree with check back. I'd like to eval if this is a b/c or b/f as played on the river. I am not Hero in this hand. I would not bet this river.
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Old 03-18-2019, 01:18 PM   #7
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Re: 2/5 Bluff catch river x/r with a set on gross board?

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Originally Posted by MAGAHat View Post
Oh, I didn't answer that because I thought it was obvious. Bet/fold

On what basis could you possibly justify a call?
This is essentially my question and the reason for the thread. I agree with your sentiment. But since I've seen it posted before that never folding sets isn't terrible I thought I'd share a spot where I thought calling with a set was terrible and get some thoughts.
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Old 03-18-2019, 05:18 PM   #8
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Re: 2/5 Bluff catch river x/r with a set on gross board?

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Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d View Post
Which 7x lead flop and can call turn though? Obv 74 can, As7x?, 77 should be raising pre. Would think 67 should fold turn. So here's the best I could do:

Any two spades in limped pot BB could lead flop, x/c turn, suspicious to x/r river but possible. Not sure how to count all these combos. Given action I'll take total spade combos and cut them in half since combos like AJss+, KQss, etc should be raising and the line didn't seem to rep a flush or go for max value on river. There are 45 combos of spades so lets exclude Ax, Kx, Jx and round down to 20 value combos that chose a weird line.

24, 26, 74, 76 (half combos since this should turn imo), 78: excluding spades this is a TON more value combos (35-ish? since 26 and 67 shouldn't make it to river).

Trying to find bluffs: As6x, As4x? 8 combos...
77 could be a x in the BB by this player, and he could be calling on turn with some 7X that would be a fold for other players

maybe his range is weighted more towards flushes than 7X, so you have a good point

and yea his bluff combos should be very minimal here with AsX as the most likely candidate

I just think he would lead river if he was bluffing and not risk it getting x'd back on this scary board, so I am heavily discounting his bluff combos here
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Old 03-18-2019, 09:03 PM   #9
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Re: 2/5 Bluff catch river x/r with a set on gross board?

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Originally Posted by tmo1120 View Post
77 could be a x in the BB by this player, and he could be calling on turn with some 7X that would be a fold for other players

maybe his range is weighted more towards flushes than 7X, so you have a good point

and yea his bluff combos should be very minimal here with AsX as the most likely candidate

I just think he would lead river if he was bluffing and not risk it getting x'd back on this scary board, so I am heavily discounting his bluff combos here
Fair enough, thanks.
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Old 03-18-2019, 09:41 PM   #10
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Re: 2/5 Bluff catch river x/r with a set on gross board?

Check back river <100% of the time. If betting, B/F.

Hero image seems to indicate he is capable of raising a FD/SD ip on flop. Continues on flushy turn and bets river when checked to. Sounds like a strong hand, so I'd underweight opponent bluffs.
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Old 03-18-2019, 10:13 PM   #11
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Re: 2/5 Bluff catch river x/r with a set on gross board?

Quote:
Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d View Post
I am not Hero in this hand but thought it was interesting given frequent comments here that if you never fold a set it is probably not terrible.
This is either a huge misunderstanding, or a malicious interpretation of presumed LLSNL thought. Usually we say this because people post coolers where their set lost vs. the top of a wide range. Here, the range of hands that beats a set is by itself very wide. They make no effort to put the villain on a range, and evaluate their hand against that range.

First I punch myself in the nuts for betting this river, and then decide I deserve to be bluffed and just fold. You paint image of hero as someone who barrels too frequently, which means V is more than justified in checking a flush twice.
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Old 03-18-2019, 10:50 PM   #12
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Re: 2/5 Bluff catch river x/r with a set on gross board?

Quote:
Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d View Post
ut since I've seen it posted before that never folding sets isn't terrible
Never folding sets is terrible.

"Never fold a set OTF 100bb effective" is a motto that's going to be wrong so rarely it will likely make zero difference to your winrate but that's not the same thing.
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Old 03-18-2019, 10:52 PM   #13
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Re: 2/5 Bluff catch river x/r with a set on gross board?

Here I xb river, as played fold.
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Old 03-18-2019, 11:09 PM   #14
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Re: 2/5 Bluff catch river x/r with a set on gross board?

Quote:
Originally Posted by samo View Post
Check back river <100% of the time. If betting, B/F.

Hero image seems to indicate he is capable of raising a FD/SD ip on flop. Continues on flushy turn and bets river when checked to. Sounds like a strong hand, so I'd underweight opponent bluffs.
Thanks, noted.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Koss View Post
This is either a huge misunderstanding, or a malicious interpretation of presumed LLSNL thought. Usually we say this because people post coolers where their set lost vs. the top of a wide range. Here, the range of hands that beats a set is by itself very wide. They make no effort to put the villain on a range, and evaluate their hand against that range.

First I punch myself in the nuts for betting this river, and then decide I deserve to be bluffed and just fold. You paint image of hero as someone who barrels too frequently, which means V is more than justified in checking a flush twice.
LOL @ malicious. I don't take everything literally but if you search I'm sure you can find something to that effect "If you never ever fold a set at LLSNL it probably isn't terrible". When Hero called this river I immediately thought of that.
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Old 03-18-2019, 11:09 PM   #15
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Re: 2/5 Bluff catch river x/r with a set on gross board?

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Originally Posted by WereBeer View Post
Never folding sets is terrible.

"Never fold a set OTF 100bb effective" is a motto that's going to be wrong so rarely it will likely make zero difference to your winrate but that's not the same thing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WereBeer View Post
Here I xb river, as played fold.
Thanks, agreed.
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Old 03-19-2019, 11:14 AM   #16
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Re: 2/5 Bluff catch river x/r with a set on gross board?

I can go either way on the river (check back or bet). But it is 100% a bet fold with everything but the nuts if you choose to bet simply because the x/r bluff frequency of 2/5 NL players and below is pretty much 0%.

In terms of how often do I b/f this river vs check back has to do with V's range OTF when calling a raise of his open. We got pretty much the worst run-out possible so I would guess my x-back frequency would be pretty high here, but never 100% (I would guess 85% ish).
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Old 03-19-2019, 12:39 PM   #17
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Re: 2/5 Bluff catch river x/r with a set on gross board?

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Originally Posted by shorn7 View Post
I can go either way on the river (check back or bet). But it is 100% a bet fold with everything but the nuts if you choose to bet simply because the x/r bluff frequency of 2/5 NL players and below is pretty much 0%.

In terms of how often do I b/f this river vs check back has to do with V's range OTF when calling a raise of his open. We got pretty much the worst run-out possible so I would guess my x-back frequency would be pretty high here, but never 100% (I would guess 85% ish).
Thanks, appreciated. This is exactly what I was hoping to hear.
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