When you say pair, I'm assuming any pair. If by pair you mean top pair, then yes generally at both levels people don't fold top pair. People at both levels fold middle and bottom pair.

Not on the flop facing a single standard bet. Your whole approach to live poker is incredibly FPS-oriented. Make hands. Bet big. Repeat. Easy

99% of players fold 88-22 on the flop facing any sized bet. Probably 80% fold 9-X and probably ~50% fold Q-X and probably 1% fold K-X. Exact %s arent important main thing is a decent amount of players will fold middle pair 3-way on this flop. Heads up probably 1% fold middle pair on the flop but this is 3-way.

No this approach isn't FPS, it's aiming to push every single edge no matter how tiny or risky.

I also make big hands and bet big, I just don't post those hands since they're easy to play.

Why do we need a flop bluff range vs an OMC who is never raising preflop? Are we afraid he's going to bluff us off the best hand ever? Cause if he ain't raising KK pre, I don't see him betting 87o on the turn, so if he bets at all, we're behind. If he checks, he wasn't putting more money in the pot unless he's already beating us

We absolutely don't.

@OP If your opponents aren't perceptive enough to notice if your balanced then you're always balanced. DUCY?

Mathematical proof that bluffing this turn isn't +EV if we assume he folds QJ, Q10, KJ, and K10 to a turn shove? Why don't you post an entire range for V and then EV calculations. You can't know if we should bluff or not without doing that.

+EV shoving the turn and balancing your flop range (what we were reffering to) are two different things.

You mentioned balance several times. Someone asked why you thought you needed to balance a bluff range on the flop. I said we don't.

Why would you choose TT over AJ/ATs?

Please tell me which Qx hands V is limp/calling and then folding on the flop. AQ? KQ? QJ? Q10? Q9? I guess they might fold Q8 but that seems pretty thin.

So what you are saying above is that we are bluffing the flop to bluff shove turn. That is maybe the most intelligent thing you've said. I agree that a lot of his range folds to a turn shove. However I don't think that setting up a bluff shove on turn is a very good reason for bluffing the flop.

Why do we need a bluff range here again? Still not clear on this point.

Equity, I think. Even though it doesn't make sense.

I think the OP suffered from FPS and knows it.

Because if we never bluff, our opponents can bluff us relentlessly when we choose to check and can fold their bluff catchers when we bet. Both of those are bad for us.

Now, this is only a problem if they knew what we were doing and could implement a plan to exploit us. Which is not an issue right now at LLSNL but knowing how your opponent can exploit your strategy seems important if you want to play against tougher competition someday.

This is a good question. Maybe that's the answer here?

Players, in general, are terrible at associating information with other information. If players see you call down the laggiest player at the table with middle pair, most of them will start to think you will call all players down with middle pair. They will completely gloss over the fact that your opponent is a spewtard.

So attempting to create a bluff range against a V that limps everything and will call down basically only when he beats us is lighting money on fire.

If you want to show the table you can bluff, do it against a fish who will call you down light and you have a chance at winning at showdown.

If anything, this V is the perfect V to show that we will check with middle strength hands so that in the future against more aggressive players, we can have a checking range that looks weak but can include TP hands to let them barrel money to us 'because we're checking middle strength hands'

TT blocks nut straight combos. However this has almost no added value at these stack depths.

And for one last time, this isn't 500NL zoom it's 500NL live! Stop worrying about GTO and balance.

lol @ the thought of live poker Vs exploiting anyone's play

Folding out underpairs is much better thing for AJ/ATs than TT.

Also, these hands still block TPGK, MPTK, straights.

I'm going to stop you on the first sentence. I didn't say 'why do we need a bluff range when playing NLHE', I said 'why do we need a bluff range here'?

Actually, maybe those hands should be bluffed and I should just try to get to showdown with JJ/1010 instead.

Reasons for favoring AJ/A10 to bet flop = it's got less showdown value, they have decent blocking effects against J10, and many of these can turn a flush draw.

Reasons for favoring 1010/JJ to bet flop = they have the twice the blocking effect against J10 than AJ/A10, I have alot less showdown value than if the pot was heads up or there was only 1 overcard.

FWIW, if the flop was Q 9 8 instead, I'd always just check flop and try to get to showdown. If it was the same flop but heads up, I'd check and try to get to showdown. I figured in this actual hand, the lowered showdown value could tip this into the bet flop range.

I wasn't disagreeing with you just saying why OP thinks TT is better

Well you don't "need" a bluff range. You also don't "need" to call a 5 way all-in preflop shove with AA where you only have ~50%ish equity. It just depends on how high you want your winrate to be.

I want a bluff range here because in reality the EV of bluff shoving turn is probably around neutral EV. We'd need a fold ~40% of the time to break even and in reality he probably folds somewhere in the range of 20-60% of the time and it's impossible to know exactly how much he folds. So why not bluff a medium amount in this case? It's equally risky to not bluff when he might fold 60% of the time as it is to bluff when he calls too often.

Wasn't disagreeing with your non-disagreement. Just making a point.

Also, AJ/ATs probably has better equity when called

I would start to bluff TT on this board only if we are deep stacked and I can tripple barrel big(pot pot pot).

With this eff stack, flop is clearly a check. Essentially, no turn card is good for you to bluff except A.

The problem is you can almost never barrel people off their top pair, two pair, set, or middle pair + gutter (Those are big part of their flop calling range) by double barrel.


As played, you can probably shove the turn as turn card is very good. But I would not c-bet this flop in the first place